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By David Albright
July/August 2006  pp. 26-33 (vol. 62, no. 4) © 2006 Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists

Given another year to make enough HEU for a nuclear weapon, and a few more months to convert the uranium into weapon components, Iran could have its first nuclear weapon in 2009. By this time, Iran could have had sufficient time to prepare the other components of a nuclear weapon, although the weapon may not be small enough to be deliverable by a ballistic missile.

This result reflects a worst-case assessment for arms control. Iran can be expected to take longer, as it is likely to encounter technical difficulties that would delay bringing a centrifuge plant into operation. Factors causing delay could include difficulty assembling and installing so many centrifuges in such a short time period, inability to achieve the relatively high separative work output used in these estimates, difficulty acquiring sufficient dual-use equipment overseas, taking longer than expected to overcome difficulties in operating the cascades as a single production unit, or a holdup in commissioning the secret centrifuge plant.

My Comments:

It is likely that 2009 is not a worst case estimate because Iran is getting help from other countries. The article does not take that into account. Also, U.S. governement estimates are significantly off for the same reason. Iran is getting help from North Korea, China and Russia. In the past it has gotten help from Pakistan in order to jump start its centrifuge program.

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Iran could have bomb in two years: Israeli intelligence

AFP | December 27 2005

FLASHBACK: Iran Is Judged 10 Years From Nuclear Bomb

Iran will be able to build an atom bomb within two years, the head of Israel’s Mossad overseas intelligence service, General Meir Dagan, was quoted as saying Tuesday.

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