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U.S. military sees Iran’s nuke bomb 5 years away

Posted by Matt in August 31st, 2006

Link to this article.

The U.S. military is operating under the assumption that Iran is five to eight years away from being able to build its first nuclear weapon, a time span that explains a general lack of urgency within the Bush administration to use air strikes to disable Tehran’s atomic program.
Defense sources familiar with discussions of senior military commanders say the five- to eight-year projection has been discussed inside the Pentagon, which is updating its war plan for Iran. The time frame is generally in line with last year’s intelligence community estimate that Iran could have the capability to produce a nuclear weapon by the beginning or middle of the next decade.
But the sources said that while the five-year window provides President Bush additional time to decide on whether to launch military strikes, they suspect it underestimates Iran’s determination to build a bomb as quickly as possible.

My Comments:

The rule on U.S. estimates is as follows:

Best Estimate = [.5] x [U.S. Estimate]

This will put the U.S. estimate in line with Israeli intelligence estimates.

The U.S. typically underestimates how much help countries get from other countries.

Related posts:

  1. Iran four years from atomic bomb, say experts
  2. When could Iran get the Bomb?
  3. Iran: Some More Questions
  4. Bush raises the stakes over Iran bomb with warning of ‘holocaust’
  5. Ross Issues Urgent Warning on Iran

Published in Iran, Middle East

Map for Tehran, Iran

[Countries link to CIA Factbook. States link to Wikipedia.]


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