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Chinese nuclear forces, 2006

Posted by Matt in October 4th, 2006

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Newly available information on the Chinese nuclear arsenal requires us to reassess our previous estimate of Beijing’s stockpile (see “Chinese Nuclear Forces, 2003,” November/December 2003 Bulletin). In 2005, the Defense Department published a detailed breakdown of the Chinese missile force, as part of its 2005 Annual Report on the Military Power of the People’s Republic of China (otherwise known as Chinese Military Power 2005). Taken together with a vague 2004 Chinese Foreign Ministry declaration about the size of the Chinese nuclear arsenal and other information, we estimate that China deploys approximately 130 nuclear warheads for delivery by land-based missiles, sea-based missiles, and bombers. Additional warheads are thought to be in storage for a total stockpile of approximately 200 warheads.

China continues to modernize its nuclear forces, though its recent developments are less dramatic than many analyses have suggested. There continues to be a number of substantial unknowns about the composition of China’s future forces, including if and how it will respond to the U.S. deployment of a ballistic missile defense system.

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[Countries link to CIA Factbook. States link to Wikipedia.]


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