Fears that the West may stumble towards another messy military confrontation in the Middle East.

But some are worrying that increasing tension makes an unplanned war more likely. America has certainly piled on the pressure. The American government has made increasingly assertive remarks, notably about the influence of Iran inside Iraq. On Friday an American intelligence report cited “Iranian lethal support for select groups of Shia militants” there. Such remarks have been backed by the display of more military muscle in the region, including anti-missile batteries and a naval battle-group which are more suited for use against a conventional enemy than against Iraqi insurgents. In this tense atmosphere small incidents, such as the recent detention of Iranians by American soldiers in a diplomatic compound in northern Iraq, risk becoming an excuse for wider confrontation.

Iran is not shy of raising the temperature itself. On February 11th, the anniversary of 1979’s Islamic Revolution, it is believed that Iran will claim to have made a big step forward in its enrichment of uranium at a centrifuge facility in Natanz. Iran has already enriched small amounts of uranium; it may say (though many will yet doubt it) that production on an industrial scale is soon possible. This may encourage Americans and Israelis who think some sort of military intervention is needed to act sooner rather than later.

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