You probably didn’t pay much attention to the name of my blog - 1913 Intel. The name signifies something that goes well beyond the Israeli-Palestinian conflict. The argument for 1913 Intel is that in some important ways conditions today are like they were right before WWI which started in 1914. Hence the 1913 in the title. It was historian Niall Ferguson who published an article on this subject a few years ago. Niall’s article helped me to crystalize my thinking on this subject. Although, I had become greatly concerned with the amount of resources that the Russians were pouring into their underground bunkers for use in nuclear war. Effectively, the Russians were positioning themselves to defeat America in war should one occur.

What are some of the conditions for a major war? A weakening superpower for one: America. Weakened alliances: NATO is not exactly a beacon of strength and purpose. Some challengers: Russia and China. We also need a catalyst, and terrorists and terror supporting countries work here:Islamist groups, Syria, Iran….

So if I think there might be a major nuclear war between America, Russia and probably China too, where does tiny Israel come in? Ah, the Israeli conflict could be the catalyst for a major war. Especially if Israel uses nuclear weapons against its neighbors. Should Syria, while at war with Israel, launch chemical warheads at Israel, then I believe Israel will respond with nuclear weapons.  

Isn’t my thinking just crazy? Why would Russia and China want to do this? Once you start looking at each country you realize that they are very unstable. It is during these unstable times that war could present itself as a solution to many problems.

Russia is heavily dependent on oil for its economic success. What would happen to the Russian economy if the world goes into a recession and the price of oil plunges? Russia has a significant demographics problem that is so bad that its population is shrinking. This shrinking could materially affect Russia in the next 20 years. It will only get worse after that.

No related posts.