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When Will Russia Oil Production Decline?

Posted by Matt in January 11th, 2008

This piece concerns the near term prognosis for Russian oil production. For background on Russia at TOD, I would recommend the excellent summary by Dave Cohen last year, and also a recent comment by Gail Tverberg which summarized a variety of warnings on the potential for Russian production to go into decline (for the second time). Also excellent is the book Russian Oil Supply by John Grace.

Here I just want to update and extend a fairly simple analysis of the situation. But first let me set some context. We have been discussing the plateau in global oil production on this site for the last two years (pretty much since the plateau first began). The latest statistics show the plateau continuing, indeed there is even some hint of decline now in both the IEA and EIA series for total liquid fuel production:

Original article published on Nov. 6, 2007.

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Published in Energy, Oil, Russia

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[Countries link to CIA Factbook. States link to Wikipedia.]


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