At 1913 Intel we’re monitoring how the world is slowly positioning itself for war. Those that want to see a more multi-polar world with forces balancing (read - opposing) the United States are simply moving us along a little faster toward a major war. This was one of the key requirements to start World war I: Two opposing forces facing each other.

The probability of a major nuclear war is now more likely than it has ever been. Why? In the past Russia (the Soviet Union) had to worry about China and Europe in a nuclear war with America. How could Russia handle these groups after the dust settled in a nuclear war? Would China take advantage of a weakened Russia after a nuclear war? What would Europe do?

The bottom line is that these groups complicated any Russian war with America. But today those complications don’t exist. China is a friend of Russia, and Europe is effectively an enemy of the United States. It is likely that China will ally itself with Russia in a war with America. It is also likely that European countries will do nothing should Russia and China attack America. Most likely European countries will blame America first should Russia and China attack America.

Weakened alliances is the second key requirement for a major war like World war I. With Europe effectively an enemy of America, alliances are currently short in abundance.

Another critical requirement for war is a weakened superpower. This superpower is just not up to the challenges it faces in the world. America certainly fits this description. With constant large trade imbalances and massive debt, America just cannot continue in its current state. The Afghanistan and Iraq wars are draining America further. The fight against radical Islam is another drain on American resources. Without help from other parts of the world, the United States simply cannot keep up with the world threats today.

Another issue that brings us closer to war is instability in China and Russia. China’s situation can be summed up as - how can a communist government survive in a country with so much capitalism? The communist government in China will not survive the capitalism it has started. Already one can read about the thousands of protests each year from unhappy citizens. The environmental pollution is so bad that it is devastating to the people.

Yes, China’s communist government’s days are numbered, unless it can refocus people’s attention. Their current refocus plan is targeting Taiwan. They are massively upgrading their military to conquer Taiwan and defeat or delay any American intrusion during the conflict. In the last 15 years two Chinese generals let slip that they would nuke America if it interferes in a conflict with Taiwan. One calmly told us they would prepare for the destruction of all their major cities east of Xi’an, and America should be prepared for the destruction of many of their major cities.

Russia is not exactly stable either. It’s economy relies too heavily on oil money. What is going to happen when the price of oil plunges? Also, Russia is not investing nearly enough in its oil fields to keep oil production at its current level.

Another problem for Russia is its declining military. It simply cannot upgrade its military equipment faster than they are degrading. So there will be a significant reduction in Russia’s nuclear missiles in the next 15 years.  Analysts expect Russia’s nuclear missiles to eventually stabilize at around 300 in the next 15 years.

Everything that I’ve outlined above does not mean that there will be a nuclear war. It simply means that the probability of nuclear war occurring during the next 10 years is much greater than it has ever been in the past.

We might be able to ignore all of this if it were not for the conflict in the Middle East concerning Israel. Israel’s neighboring enemies are positioning themselves to destroy Israel once and for all. Hezbollah has acquired the ability to strike most of Israel with various kinds of missiles, thanks to Iran. Hamas has also acquired the ability to inflict missile damage on larger parts of Israel. Syria is working diligently on its missiles arsenal which includes chemical weapons. Iran is developing the ability to build nuclear bombs and the means to deliver them.

Effectively, Israel is going to be forced to defend itself with nuclear weapons at some point in the not too distant future. This will most likely occur when some kind of non-conventional weapon is used like a chemical warhead on a Syrian missile. Israel’s nuclear response will result in about 15 Million dead if you include Lebanon, Syria and the Palestinians (West Bank and Gaza.)

Obviously, this will not go over well with much of the world, and America will be blamed.

At this point Russia and China will quietly prepare for nuclear war against America. Preparation will probably take a couple of years - 1 to 4 years. I expect it to take 2 to 3 years. When the war comes it will start around 4AM (EDT) when everybody in America is at home in bed. Russian and Chinese submarines will quietly surround America and launch their missiles. They will take out command and control facilities, key military targets and the civilian leadership. Probably one or two submarine missiles will be used to detonate some nuclear bombs high in the atmosphere in order to generate an EMP. Effectively, most of America will now be without any kind of communication. They will have no idea what’s going on. If they’re not in an underground nuclear bunker already, then they will die if they live near a big city.

Once the submarine missiles and cruise start hitting their targets, ICBMs will be launched from Russia and China. Russian bombers will launch. Other military planes in Russia and China will be repositioned for survival.

Within 30 minutes from the first strike, ICBMs will to detonating all over America. Somewhere around half the U.S. population will die within a few days of this strike. Probably another 25% will die in the next few months.

My best estimate for a nuclear war starting is in years 2012 or 2013. Although the range of years possible is from 2010 to 2018. The 2012 estimate has nothing to do with Nostradamus or the end of Mayan calendar.

I assume that Israel will go to war with Hezbollah and Hamas in the Summer of 2008. Syria and Iran will not join this war according to Israeli intelligence. So it will not nuclear.

I assume that Hezbollah and Hamas will be ready to fight a new war in the Summer of 2010. Syria will join this war. This war will be a missile war with missiles raining down all over Israel. Syria will most likely launch missiles with chemical warheads. Israel’s response will be devastating.

The clocks starts ticking for retaliation on America from the Summer of 2010. How long will it take Russia and China to prepare for this war? At least a year, but probably 2 or 3 years.

In the movies at least some people make into underground nuclear bunkers. In real life that will not happen in the major metropolitan areas. People that don’t live too close to big cities and know what’s going on are going to survive. Other survivors will be lucky due to wind patterns. But most people will just die.

Connecting the dots

Check out this article titled Russia’s Nuclear Threat. Here we learn that Russia’s policy is that it reserves the right to use nuclear weapons preemptively to protect itself and its allies. Fair enough, but which countries are its allies? For starters, Syria is one of its allies.

Is Syria an ally of Russia? Check out this article: Russia to defend its principal Middle East ally: Moscow takes Syria under its protection.

What would be Russia’s reaction if at some point in the future Israel destroys Syria with nuclear weapons? Israel just might use nuclear weapons against Syria if it uses chemical weapons against Israeli cities. This article discusses just how close Israel is to a Syrian chemical weapon attack. Although, the article doesn’t forecast Israel’s use of nuclear weapons against this type of attack.

Here’s another article discussing the next Israeli war with its neighbors: Iranian, Syrian missiles to pound Israel in next war. This is all very scary.

Israel readies largest exercise ever to prepare for Iran-Syria missile war

Changing nuclear equation

“Should nuclear arms be used in response to powerful conventional attacks?”

“According to the equation accepted by the world, it’s legitimate to use conventional weapons in response to a conventional attack, and similarly, non-conventional (nuclear, chemical, or biological) weapons in response to a non-conventional attack.”

“Six decades after the first and only use of nuclear weapons so far (since then, Egypt and Iraq made limited use of chemical weapons) the time has come to check whether this equation is still relevant. In my view, Israel should regain its deterrent power by threatening a nuclear reaction in response to a conventional attack of similar magnitude.”

Read more from this article at YnetNews.Com.

Should the above scenario unfold, then I argue that nuclear relaliation against America will be forthcoming within a few years. Probably within two or three years, but possibly four years later.

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