China: Inhibited Growth, But Too Early To Short

Posted by Matt in April 26th, 2008

Demographics another headwind

China has undergone over a generation of the one-child policy, which has served to restrict her population growth. The law of unintended consequences raised its head along the way.

The population is aging rapidly. The accompanying chart shows that the UN projects the proportion of China’s elderly population, which is defined as those over age 65, will rise from 6.8% of the population in 2000 to an astounding 22.9% in 2050. China’s dependency ratio (ratio of non-working to working population) will rise from 10 per 100 workers in 2000 (19 for US in 2000) to 37 in 2050 (vs. 32 for US). The demographic bonus of a rising young, productive, working population will have been spent in the next 20-30 years.

Map for Beijing, China

[Countries link to CIA Factbook. States link to Wikipedia.]

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