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Iran and Washington’s Israeli option

Posted by Matt in July 3rd, 2008

Will Israel attack Iran? I see the probability of an Israeli attack at less than 50% with the Olmert government.

Olmert knows he needs to stop Iran from producing nuclear weapons, but he just doesn’t have the will to pull off an attack on Iran.

The bottom line - we need to wait for a new Israeli Prime Minister before an attack on Iran will take place.

From the article:

A recent ABC News report suggested that Israel might act before two “red lines” are reached.

The first would be the production by Iran of enough highly-enriched uranium to make a nuclear bomb and the second would be its acquisition of a new Russian anti-aircraft system, the S-300.

Read More…

Israel’s Olmert keeps office, for now
Chicago Tribune, United States - Jun 26, 2008
The testimony, part of a corruption investigation of Olmert, severely damaged his public standing and brought calls for him to resign. Olmert has said that

DEBKA’s ANALYSIS: Israel’s war options determined by next prime minister

1 July: The overriding considerations that will determine if and when Israel attacks Iran are these: whether to strike before George W. Bush’s exit, whether Iran’s strategic ties with Syria and the Palestinian Hamas can be severed in advance and the identity of the Israeli prime minister chosen to manage the war.

These are the determinants, rather than “the red lines” cited by senior Pentagon officials to ABC News Monday as triggers for an Israeli offensive.

DEBKAfile cites the reality behind the key decision:

1. Contrary to most reports, Iran is lagging behind its target date for producing a sufficiency of weapons-grade uranium. Technical hitches dog activation of the high-grade centrifuges.

2. Moscow has suspended all sales of sophisticated air defense systems to Iran and Syria alike – so that Israel has no cause for haste on that score.

Jerusalem would prefer to strike straight after the America’s November 4 presidential election - except that military experts warn that weather and lunar conditions at that time of the year are unfavorable. If Israel does opt for an attack, August and September would be better, they say - or else hold off until March-April 2009.

Towards the end of September, the ruling Kadima party holds a primary for choosing a prime minister, whose identity is anyone’s guess.

DEBKA’s Website

Related posts:

  1. Israel has a year to stop Iran bomb, warns ex-spy
  2. Iran threatens to set Israel ablaze as fears grow of US-backed war
  3. Report: Pentagon official says Israel has ‘amber light’ for Iran strike
  4. ‘Devastating response’ if Iran nukes attacked
  5. Israel on worldwide alert after disappearance of Iran official

Published in Iran, Israel, U.S., , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , ,

Map for Tehran, Iran

[Countries link to CIA Factbook. States link to Wikipedia.]


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