The credit crunch has thus far focused on the residential mortgage mess. But with $1.3 trillion in loans to shopping centers and other commercial properties coming due between now and 2013, another time bomb is ticking. In a report scheduled for release on Wednesday, Deutsche Bank estimates that at least half the loans — and two-thirds of those packaged and resold as securities — will not qualify for refinancing. As a result, many borrowers will likely default, leading to losses on securitized mortgages of $50 billion or more and losses of at least $200 billion on commercial real estate loans overall, according to Deutsche analyst Richard Parkus, who authored the report. “People are only now beginning to realize there is a looming crisis,” Parkus told TIME. (See pictures of retailers which have gone out of business.)
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