China’s primary goal is social stability. The focus on social stability above all else means that China is limited in its ability to strengthen the yuan. Paradoxically, this focus on social stability will ensure that China experiences a major crash at some point. That crash might be sooner than we think if China enters into a trade war with the US. Also, remember that many of China’s real estate markets are vastly overheated and at a tipping point.
Trade war fever is rising in Washington. Slapping China with unilateral tariffs would feel good—and make matters worse
There’s a dangerous fantasy taking hold in Washington: The U.S. can force China to strengthen the yuan. Since the beginning of September the Chinese currency has appreciated about 1.8 percent against the dollar; China may be allowing it to drift higher to stave off American retaliation. Bills pending in the House and Senate would push the Administration to penalize Beijing through tariffs if it doesn’t let the yuan rise further. “At a time when the U.S. economy is trying to pick itself up off the ground, China’s currency manipulation is like a boot to the throat of our recovery,” Senator Charles E. Schumer, a New York Democrat and sponsor of one of the bills, said at a congressional hearing this month.
Commentary: On the Yuan, Be Careful What You Wish For – BusinessWeek