It’s hard for most people to even think about the possibility of nuclear war. They have completely lost their fear of nuclear war. It can’t happen! Unfortunately, that’s not true, and I’m going to show you why.

How can one possibly know that nuclear war approaches? History provides the clues we’re looking for. Just like history informs us when a forest is susceptible to a major forest fire. The exact timing might be impossible to figure out, but we can know the season.

Possible reasons for war:

1. The rise of a powerful rival in the presence of a declining superpower has led to war six out of the last seven times. Today it’s China versus America.

2. When a rival finds that it is incapable of keeping up militarily, then it may launch a preemptive strike before it is too late. Russia is now in danger of falling behind. This is the reason why Germany started World War I.

The decline of a superpower is a very important historical sign of bad things to come. America is now in this situation.

Another important historical sign of war is that when most people from the last big crisis have died then society becomes susceptible to another big crisis. The last big crisis was the Depression plus World War II.

Here are three possible catalysts for war:

1. A conflict in the Middle East involving Israel.

2. A conflict on the Korean peninsula.

3. A conflict over Taiwan.

The use of nuclear weapons by any country could result in an an escalation.

Introduction to Nuclear War – Signs 1 to 5

1. Doomsday shelters making a comeback. Today a lot of people are starting to become concerned about events occurring in the world. Iran and North Korea are working hard to develop nuclear weapons. China and Russia are upgrading their nuclear forces. The US is letting its nuclear forces atrophy. What’s a regular person to do? Well, why not buy a doomsday shelter?

Jason Hodge, father of four children from Barstow, Calif., says he’s “not paranoid” but he is concerned, and that’s why he bought space in what might be labeled a doomsday shelter.

Hodge bought into the first of a proposed nationwide group of 20 fortified, underground shelters — the Vivos shelter network — that are intended to protect those inside for up to a year from catastrophes such as a nuclear attack, killer asteroids or tsunamis, according to the project’s developers.

Doomsday shelters making a comeback
bomb-shelters-make-comeback
If Everything Is Going To Be Okay, Then Why Is The Number Of Preppers [Preparing for End of World] In The United States Absolutely Exploding?

Nuclear fallout shelters are making a comeback in other countries too: Japan and Israel.

Nervous Japanese Build Nuclear Bunkers
Israelis Put Bunkers in Gardens

Both Switzerland and Singapore have nuclear fallout shelters for everyone:

Swiss Still Braced for Nuclear War
Bomb Shelters in Singapore

2. On November 8, 2010 a mystery missile was launched 35 miles off the coast of Los Angeles. Initially there were many reports that this so-called missile was actually a contrail from an airplane. After a few days many different experts weighed in on the topic by confirming that it was indeed a missile. It was a two-stage submarine launched ballistic missile. It was most likely China providing a warning to the United States. If you think about it for a second, you will realize that this act was absolutely outrageous and unacceptable. This is a nuclear challenge from China – stay out of our core interests, or prepare for nuclear war.

http://www.1913intel.com/tag/california-mystery-missile/

3. China has completed in the last few years  massive underground nuclear bunkers under many of its major cities. Why is this necessary?

Shanghai Completes Massive Underground Bunker to Protect Citizens from Disasters

http://www.1913intel.com/tag/chinese-fallout-shelters/

4. In a report by Russia Today, the Russian government is hurrying to complete 5,000 underground nuclear bunkers in Moscow by 2012. What’s the rush? And why do you need them in the first place?

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=XRQSU133BiQ
Inside Russia’s magic mountain [This bunker is the size of a city]
Russian bunkers against nuclear attack
Russian fallout shelters

5. In 2009 Russia announced that it reserves the right to use a preemptive nuclear strike if it feels its security is threatened. A couple of years earlier it announced that it reserved the right to use nuclear weapons in a preemptive nuclear strike to protect itself and its allies. But which countries are Russia’s allies? One such ally is Syria. This is the same Syria that is preparing for war with Israel, along with Hezbollah and Hamas. What would Russia do if Israel destroys Syria?

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=DpiHw6EQUv4

Russia in a new review of its policy on use of nuclear weapons will reserve the right to undertake a pre-emptive strike if it feels its security is endangered, a senior Kremlin official told a Russian newspaper.

Read More…

I’ve just given you a short introduction to the possibility of nuclear war. This shows both Russia and China suggesting the possibility of nuclear war is real. Both countries are working hard to build underground nuclear bunkers. Both countries have brought up the use of nuclear weapons. But why would they want to attack America?

Why World War I Started (Historical Sign of War)

With the November 1912 announcement of the Russian Great Military Programme, the leadership of the German Army began clamoring even more strongly for a “preventive war” against Russia. Moltke declared that Germany could not win the arms race with France, Britain and Russia, which she herself had begun in 1911, because the financial structure of the German state, which gave the Reich government little power to tax, meant Germany would bankrupt herself in an arms race. As such, Moltke from late 1912 onwards was the leading advocate for a general war, and the sooner the better. Source: Wikipedia – Causes of World War I.

World War I started as a preemptive strike before Russia, France and Britain could gain a clear military advantage over Germany. This provides us with a clue as to why Russia might launch a preemptive nuclear strike against America in current times. Russia’s economy and military are in decline. The Russian state could be at risk of defeat in the future.

The key signs present right before the start of World War I (Historical signs of war):

[1.] The first cause was imperial overstretch. By 1914, the British Empire was showing signs of being a “weary Titan,” in the words of the poet Matthew Arnold. …

[2.] Great-power rivalry was another principal cause of the catastrophe. The problem was not so much Anglo-German rivalry at sea as it was Russo-German rivalry on land. …

[3.] The third fatal factor was an unstable alliance system. Alliances existed in abundance, but they were shaky. …

[4.] The presence of a rogue regime sponsoring terror was a fourth source of instability. The chain of events leading to war, as every schoolchild used to know, began with the assassination of the Austrian Archduke Franz Ferdinand in Sarajevo by a Bosnian Serb, Gavrilo Princip. …

[5.] Finally, the rise of a revolutionary terrorist organization hostile to capitalism turned an international crisis into a backlash against the global free market. …

Sinking Globalization

What about the historical signs of war today? Here they are:

1. America is in decline.
2. Both China and Russia are powerful rivals. China is on the rise while Russia is in decline.
3. NATO’s direction is no longer clear. If NATO has a pulse, it’s very weak – Washington Times
4. Terror sponsoring regimes: Iran and Syria are two terror sponsoring regimes.
5. A revolutionary terrorist organization is Al Qaeda which is more like “Islamo-Bolshevists” than “Islamo-Fascists.”

The first three signs represent the ability of a major war to take place. The last two signs represent a catalyst to facilitate a major war. They are all present today.

The catalyst for a major great-power war exists in the Middle East surrounding Israel. Should a war in the Middle East involving Israel, Hezbollah, Hamas and Syria involve a large number of Arab deaths, then a great-power war could follow. If Israel were to use nuclear weapons against its neighbors then you should be very worried.

The Attack on Pearl Harbor (Historical Sign of War)

The attack on Pearl Harbor (or Hawaii Operation, Operation Z, as it was called by the Japanese Imperial General Headquarters) was an unannounced military strike conducted by the Japanese navy against the United States’ naval base at Pearl Harbor, Hawaii, on the morning of Sunday, December 7, 1941 (Hawaiian time, December 8 by Japan Standard Time), later resulting in the United States becoming militarily involved in World War II. It was intended as a preventive action to keep the U.S. Pacific Fleet from influencing the war the Empire of Japan was planning to wage in Southeast Asia against Britain, the Netherlands, and the United States. The attack consisted of two aerial attack waves totaling 353 aircraft, launched from six Japanese aircraft carriers.

The attack on Pearl Harbor was a preventive or preemptive strike to keep the U.S. Pacific Fleet from influencing the war the Empire of Japan was planning to wage in Southeast Asia. This suggests that in a future attack on America one should seriously consider a preemptive nuclear strike out of the blue.

Why Would Russia and China Want to Attack America?

There are two key reasons that Russia and China would want to launch a nuclear attack on America:

6. Russia is in decline: Russia in Decline

Russia’s military industrial complex will be unable to keep up with America’s technological innovations in the future. In the next 10 to 15 years Russia’s nuclear forces could be at risk due to America’s missile defenses and global strike capabilities.

Russia’s military problems: Russia Military in Decline

“The revival of Russia’s military might under Putin is merely a myth,” Stanislav Belkovsky, who head the Institute for National Strategy, said at a presentation of the report. “The Russian armed forces have degraded completely under Putin.”

If the current trends continue, the report warns, Russia’s nuclear arsenals would shrink from about 680 intercontinental ballistic missiles now to between 100 and 200 missiles over the next 10 years.

Experts see decline in Russia’s military
http://www.1913intel.com/tag/russia-falling-behind/
http://www.1913intel.com/tag/russia-military-in-decline/

Russia today faces a similar problem as Germany did prior to World War I. If it does nothing then its chief adversary, America, will probably gain a clear military advantage in the future.

7. If the new START treaty is not ratified by the US, then Moscow will be placed into a situation where it cannot keep up. The US will increase its missile defense capabilities over time, and gradually increase its global strike capabilities. Effectively, the defense of Russia will be put at risk with the failure of the new START treaty.

America’s global strike capability in the future: Prompt Global Strike: World Military Superiority Without Nuclear Weapons

Should Russia sit around and wait for the US to overwhelm Russia’s defensive capabilities, or should Russia strike the US while it still can? This is the choice Russia has.

… If the arms control treaty fails, Moscow has no means to stop US progress either on missile defense or on enhancing its global strike program, perhaps the single most frightening military threat perceived by Moscow. …

Moscow would also lose valuable potential and actual economic gains. Failure to ratify the treaty could undermine the entire edifice of the new cooperation like the treaty on civilian nuclear cooperation, Russian entry into the World Trade Organization (WTO) and the Obama administration’s efforts to bring about what has always been lacking in bilateral relations: a solid economic underpinning creating a community of interest on both sides to uphold and sustain ties through difficult times (The Moscow Times, November 8). These are among the fears expressed by pundits who have publicly registered their anxiety about the future course of the relationship (RIA Novosti, November 3; www.pravda.ru, November 3).

Finally, failure of the ratification process confronts Russia with very difficult questions concerning the future course of its military policies and investments. If it cannot have mutual deterrence and arms control at more affordable levels as it spends huge amounts to modernize its army’s conventional weaponry, how would it react to that outcome? Certainly, there are those in the Kremlin who harbor unceasing suspicion of US interests, goals, and capabilities and those who would like to continue to place their priority on nuclear weapons in a strongly anti-US stance. Should the treaty fail to be ratified they would be emboldened, but can Russia afford both a sizable nuclear and huge conventional modernization? Therefore, the concern in the government and media about the outcome of the treaty is well founded because its failure will then confront Russia with a host of unpalatable situations that require major policy decisions in an environment of competitive foreign and defense policy agendas, leading to an outcome that no government looks forward to facing.

Moscow Shows Anxiety Over Passing the New START Treaty – The Jamestown Foundation

8. Russia doesn’t think nuclear war is out of bounds. In 2008 four-star Chief of the General Staff Gen. Yury Baluyevsky, has warned in the future there could be full-scale wars, even the use of nuclear weapons is not regarded as inconceivable. Watch this video about how Russia introduced medium range ballistic missile launchers (SS-21) capable of launching missiles with nuclear warheads in the Georgian war. The SS-21 missiles can be conventional or nuclear. The conventional warhead is not significant. This represented a threat of nuclear retaliation if America helped Georgia with precision guided conventional weapons.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=7Q3Xc5G6oPs

9. China is seeking a sphere of influence in its surrounding area. Currently, America is standing in its way. China has also defined an international body of water as its core interest – the South China Sea. America has so far not recognized this core interest.

The Chinese people are not happy about a U.S. aircraft carrier so close to China while conducting naval exercises with South Korea.

At this stage, China may not react through a show of force to the US fleet cruising into the international waters of the Yellow Sea. But it does not mean that the Chinese people will tolerate it. Whatever harm the US military maneuver may inflict upon the mind of the Chinese, the United States will have to pay for it, sooner or later. Just look at the thousands of messages Chinese readers have left on the Global Times Chinese-language website. More than 92 percent of them agree that the joint naval drill will be a huge threat to China. Many voiced their concerns, in lines such as: It’s a matter of the dignity of a big country; China has to grow even faster in order to avoid the bully and such shame; Don’t trust the United States any more.

US has to pay for provoking China – GlobalTimes

10. The conflict over Taiwan:

A senior Chinese general has warned that his country could destroy hundreds of American cities with nuclear weapons if the two nations clashed over Taiwan.

Major general Zhu Chenghu, a dean at the National Defence University, said he was expressing a private opinion, but his comments, the most inflammatory by a senior government official in 10 years, will fuel growing concerns in Washington about the rise of China.

Chinese general warns of nuclear risk to US

11. China is preparing for the “eventuality of a nuclear war.”

Defense analysts for the British intelligence service MI6 believe China is preparing for the “eventuality of a nuclear war.” The conclusion follows evidence that Beijing has built secretly a major naval base deep inside caverns which even sophisticated satellites cannot penetrate, says a report in Joseph Farah’s G2 Bulletin.

In an unusual development, the analysts have provided details to the specialist defense periodical, Jane’s Intelligence Review, which published satellite images of the base location which is hidden beneath millions of tons of rock on the South China Sea island of Hainan.

http://www.wnd.com/?pageId=63860

Is China now where Germany was in 1900?

1914 All Over Again? (Historical Sign of War)

In the run up to WWI, an influential book was written by General Von Bernhardi titled Germany and the next War. The book manifests Germany’s frustration and militancy. Von Bernhardi proclaims that, with her scientific and intellectual achievements, Germany should have a more prominent role in world affairs, more colonial trophies with access to petroleum reserves. Germany’s GDP had passed that of Great Britain and France and they now wanted more respect. France and Great Britain were maneuvering as best they could to keep Germany (a perceived threat) out of the game. Bernhardi’s book also argues that war was not only a justifiable means to achieve that goal but even an obligation of Germany’s leadership.

And now in 2009 we witness the wide distribution of a book titled Unhappy China, which expresses China’s frustrations with their current position.

1914 All Over Again?

The Three E’s of War (Historical Signs of War)

Historian Niall Ferguson discusses the three key factors present before wars in the 20th century.

In The War of the World, I argued that three factors made the location and timing of lethal organised violence more or less predictable in the last century. The first was ethnic disintegration: violence was worst in areas where majorities lived uneasily side by side with religious or linguistic minorities. The second factor was empires in decline: when imperial rule crumbled, battles for power were most bloody. The third was economic volatility: the greater the magnitude and frequency of economic shocks, the more likely conflict was.

The Axis of Upheaval

The three E’s are present today: The American empire is in decline, the global financial crisis is causing economic volatility and the Middle East is set to blow up into a regional war sooner than we would like to think.

12. Currently America is in economic decline, while China’s economy is on the rise. In the last 7 times that a global empire was challenged by a rival power, war has occurred 6 times.

America in Decline
America is vulnerable.

Will the rise of China lead to conflict with the US?

Great power rivalries in history:

1. Spain versus Holland in the 16th century. [War]
2. Holland versus England in the 17th century. [War]
3. Britain versus France in both the 18th and 19th centuries. [War]
4. France and Britain versus Germany in the 20th century. [War]
5. Germany versus Russia in 1914. [War]
6. Germany versus Russia (Soviet Union) in 1941. [War]
7. Soviet Union versus the US and its allies in the Cold War after 1945. [No War]

China’s Risky Bet Against History

Is this the beginning of an enduring rivalry or merely a temporary downturn?

The answer lies in the past as much as the present – but history provides some cause for concern about the future of US-China relations. A careful survey of the early twentieth century reveals that rising autocracies inherently and predictably spawn mistrust, and that their ascent culminates in rivalry, if not outright military conflict. By contrast, rising powers with rule of law and transparent governance offer multiple avenues for reassurance, meaning they can rise without provoking strategic competition.

No Democracy: No Peaceful Rise

So why have some powers risen peacefully while others haven’t? The answer is regime type, a lesson of history derived from the most important power transition of them all—the eclipse of Pax Britannica.

China’s Risky Bet Against History | The Diplomat

Economic Volatility and Social Unrest

13. The signs of social unrest are just starting to appear in Russia due to Putin’s incompetence and the global financial crisis. This type of economic volatility is one reason for war.

Russians have good reasons to despise the increasingly neo-Soviet regime that Putin, a proud KGB spy, has created. And despite the shameful lack of support from Barack Obama and other craven Western leaders, they have good reason to be brave enough to challenge him.

When he came to power two years ago, Russia’s so-called “president” Dmitri Medvedev (in reality nothing more than Putin’s puppet) promised that he would bring a new level of fairness to Russia’s infamously corrupt electoral process. But exactly the opposite has happened. A Russian court has totally banned Russia’s most salient opposition party, Yabloko, from taking part in the next round of elections in the Russian regions. The court upheld the actions of local political leaders who rejected electoral petitions simply because they “just looked false.”

A revolution is brewing in Vladimir Putin’s Russia

Russian social unrest

14. China is experiencing problems because of its rapid growth. Due to the rapid growth in real estate prices, widespread property seizure by the government has become a big problem:

The Chinese government has moved to calm huge public anger over the widespread seizure of property, an issue that has driven three people to set themselves on fire in as many months.

A large proportion of China’s estimated 100,000 or so public protests each year are driven by rage over compulsory evictions. Over the past decade, hundreds of thousands of Chinese have been forcibly evicted from their homes to make way for one of the greatest property booms of all time.

China moves to calm unrest over property seizures – Telegraph
chinese-unrest
china-unrest

15. Russia believes that a war with NATO is possible.

“This is very significant. Right now the present Russian leadership believes that a war with Nato is very much possible,” Pavel Felgenhauer, a Moscow-based defence analyst, told the Guardian. “This is the first time since the collapse of the Soviet Union that the Russian military is actually preparing for an all-out nuclear war with America.”

He added: “I believe we [the Russians] are sending the west a serious message. The message is treat us with respect, and if you don’t go into our backyard we won’t go into yours. Russia wants to divide the world into spheres of influence. If not, we will prepare for nuclear war.”

Felgenhauer said Russia’s military was old but still effective. “Our military is backward in its development. But we still have a sizeable nuclear potential. It can kill a hell of a lot of people,” he said.

Russia challenges west with nuclear overhaul | World news | The Guardian

16. China is thinking about a cold war and a hot war.

Now almost 55% of those questioned for Global Times, a state-run newspaper, agree that “a cold war will break out between the US and China”.

An independent survey of Chinese-language media for The Sunday Times has found army and navy officers predicting a military showdown and political leaders calling for China to sell more arms to America’s foes. The trigger for their fury was Obama’s decision to sell $6.4 billion (£4 billion) worth of weapons to Taiwan, the thriving democratic island that has ruled itself since 1949.

China’s hawks demand cold war on the US
http://www.1913intel.com/tab/china-confrontation/

17. Demographic problems in Russia and China.

The West’s problems are, however, nothing compared to the social and economic catastrophe shaping in China.

The one-child policy has, in its own harsh terms, worked: reducing births by between 300 and 400 million. But it has induced a premature, and alarmingly rapid, ageing process. China has given itself a rich country’s problem before it has become rich: for all its economic performance, Chinese incomes are still nowhere near as high as those in Western societies at the point when they started to age.

China’s future will be hobbled by old age

http://www.1913intel.com/tag/russia-demographics
http://www.1913intel.com/tag/china-demographics

18. Tension between between mainland China and Taiwan is building.

A senior Taiwanese official has told a defense forum in the United States that despite rapidly warming commercial relations with Taipei, China’s military threat against the island is growing, Taiwanese media reported Tuesday.

The reports call into question the efficacy of China’s efforts to use its huge financial resources to convince Taiwanese both in and out of government that political union with the mainland is in the island’s interest.

Deputy Defense Minister Andrew Yang told a U.S.-Taiwan Business Council meeting in Maryland on Monday that despite considerable progress on commercial ties, the mainland is continuing to deploy more and more sophisticated weapons against the island, according to reports Tuesday from opposition and pro-government newspapers and the government-owned Central News Agency.

Taiwan official says China threat growing: reports
Category: Taiwan

19. A regional Middle East war approaches. This war will be unlike anything we’ve ever seen before. Thousands of missiles will rain down on Israeli cities. Syria and Lebanon have missiles with chemical warheads which they might use on Israeli cities. The response from Israel could include nuclear weapons.

A new report based on extensive conversations with regional decisionmakers, released Monday, Aug. 2, by the International Crisis Group, the respected mediation organization of former diplomats, warns of the possibility of war. “The situation in the Levant is … exceptionally quiet and uniquely dangerous, both for the same reason,” the Crisis Group warns. “The buildup in military forces and threats of an all-out war that would spare neither civilians nor civilian infrastructure, together with the worrisome prospect of its regionalization, are effectively deterring all sides.” But while Hizballah and its regional backers, Syria and Iran, believe that the buildup in the Shi’ite militia’s arsenal and capabilities is deterring Israel from launching attacks on any of them, Israel views the acquisition by Hizballah of a missile arsenal capable of raining destruction on Israeli cities as an intolerable threat. “As Hizballah’s firepower grows,” the Crisis Group notes, “so too does Israel’s desire to tackle the problem before it is too late … What is holding the current architecture in place is also what could rapidly bring it down.”

Read More…
Middle East Regional War Approaches

20. Bible prophecy suggests that something big is about to happen. If the end times started with the arrival of modern Israel, then something big is up.

Please note that I have provided one possible interpretation of Bible prophecy. Others are possible.

a. Nebuchadnezzar’s statue suggests that the old Roman empire will rise again. Later another empire rises with 10 parts or zones. Where is America, Russia and China? How could a weak Roman empire (the EU?) rise again to dominate the world unless America, Russia and China were greatly weakened or eliminated?

The scenario outlined below is about Israel’s destruction of its neighbors and the subsequent retaliation on America by Russia and China.

b. Amos 1: Provides the timing for the destruction of Israel’s neighbors, and informs us that this is God’s judgment. They all arrive at three wars with Israel at different times, but gather together in the fourth war. It will be in the fourth war that they are destroyed. They are now at or near the third war.

c. Isaiah 17: Discusses the destruction of Damascus, Syria. Who cares about Damascus, Syria? Is it a sign?

d. Isaiah 18: A powerful friend of Israel is going to be destroyed. Pay attention to when Israel destroys its neighbors with nuclear weapons in the summer. By the following spring there will be sign: This powerful friend brings gifts to the new Jewish temple on the Temple Mount. The destruction of this powerful friend could begin at any time after the gifts are delivered.

Find out how Islam takes over the world: Could Islam really take over the world? After the videos is an article on Isaiah 18.

21. How significant American wars follow a cycle of 80 to 100 years. These are the wars that plunge the entire country into a crisis. A new 20 year crisis period starts about the time that most people who directly experienced the last crisis have died off. There was the Revolutionary War, Civil War and Depression plus World War II. The current crisis period runs from 2005 to 2025.

Thus might the next Fourth Turning end in apocalypse – or glory. The nation could be ruined, its democracy destroyed, and millions of people scattered or killed. Or America could enter a new golden age, triumphantly applying shared values to improve the human condition. The rhythms of history do not reveal the outcome of the coming Crisis; all they suggest is the timing and dimension.

Strauss & Howe – The Fourth Turning

Winter is coming. Are you prepared? Americans see time as their enemy. Most Americans have bought into a view of the past and future as linear. When you observe the world in linear way and things are going well, the population is happy and confident. If you view the world in a linear way and things are going badly, the population sees nothing but terrible times ahead. This linear outlook of history and the future is not rational or supported by facts. I’m convinced that world history is not on a linear path towards Armageddon and the Rapture. This belief is preached by many of the mainstream religions, but the truth is that we’ve seen this movie before and it doesn’t end in the 2nd Coming of Christ. The American belief in a destiny of never ending progress will undergo its 3rd major crisis period since its founding. The resolution of this crisis is 10 to 20 years in the future. The outcome will remain in doubt until the definitive resolution.

Read More (Part 1)…
Read More (Part 2)…
The Cycles of War

Watch this video about the Fourth Turning. In 1997 the authors make some very interesting predictions about the problems we are about to face.

22. What nuclear gaming tells us about the START treaty.

The results of the gaming exercises are clear. Pursuing nuclear disarmament in a proliferated world without employing missile defense and maintaining credible nuclear deterrence increases instability, which can lead to nuclear war. Moreover, it is likely that New START will fail to protect the U.S. and its allies from attack, to provide verification of existing programs, and to prevent nuclear proliferation.

Pursuing an arms control strategy of “protect and defend”—in other words, fielding missile defenses and maintaining a modernized, credible nuclear deterrent—appears to be the best option for pursuing arms control and nonproliferation policy while limiting the potential for conflict.

Read More…

23. The mathematics of war [see video below]. Wars and attacks within wars precisely follow a power-law distribution. The longer you go between wars or attacks then the bigger they will get which is contrary to the thinking of most people. Most people think that the longer you go since a major war like World War II, then the less likely a major war will happen. The mathematics of war shows that this thinking is not true.

It turns out that forests, sandpiles, earthquakes, financial markets, wars and attacks within wars follow the power-law distribution. What happens to a forest when you put out every fire? Eventually the forest experiences a fire so massive that it can’t be put out. When you don’t allow the small fires or collapses to occur, then eventually they get so big that they can’t be stopped.

Concerning war, hasn’t the U.S. been at war many times since World War II? Yes, but they have not been gut wrenching wars that severely affect society. Most people can’t even comprehend the possibility of a major war on American soil. It can’t happen. Big wars are no more. It’s better to eliminate our nuclear weapons so that other countries will follow. Apparently, we’re disarming to become more safe.

You can see the power-law at work because over time historical information has changed people’s thinking in the future.  No major wars during our lifetime mean that they will not occur in the future. So no need to worry. Think about the forest fire example. What did no fires for a long time mean? Did it mean that no fires will ever happen, or did it mean that once a fire came it would be huge?

To understand this better you need to start reading many of the articles in the “power_law” category by using the link below.

http://www.1913intel.com/category/power_law/

24. Let’s not forget Iranian nuclear weapons.

Former U.S. Secretary of State Lawrence Eagleburger says that unless civilized nations act soon to thwart Iran’s nuclear ambitions “the world’s going to go to war over this.”

His remark came in reaction to the news that Russia has announced it will begin loading nuclear-fuel rods into an Iranian nuclear reactor on Aug. 28.

“When you’re as old as I am,” he told Cavuto, “if you remember how much this sounds like the workup to WWII, when everybody was letting things go by, letting things happen, and nobody was doing anything to stop what was clearly a track toward war. And we’re doing it again, we’re doing it again.

Eagleburger: World’s Going to War Over Iranian Nukes

Australian intelligence agencies fear involvement in Mideast nuke war

The warnings about the dangers of nuclear conflict in the Middle East are given in a secret US embassy cable obtained by WikiLeaks and provided exclusively to Fairfax newspapers. They reflect views obtained by US intelligence liaison officers in Canberra from across the range of Australian intelligence agencies.

Aust fears involvement in Mideast nuke war

25. The 1930s – An Era Strikingly Similar to Our Own

Paul Johnson’s Churchill recalls an era strikingly similar to our own.

Johnson notes that when Hitler and the Nazis came to power in Germany in 1933, most Europeans failed to recognize either the nature or the gravity of the threat. Winston Churchill — retired soldier, popular writer, not very popular politician — was the exception. He understood that unless free peoples acted decisively, they would come under attack, sooner or later.

Churchill was derided as an alarmist, or even a “warmonger.”

Nineteen-Thirty-Something by Clifford D. May on National Review Online
Tag: The 1930s

26. Could the conflict between North Korea and South Korea spiral out of control and involve America and China? N. Korea: Exercises bring war ‘closer’ – CNN.com

Mullen: Risk of [Nuclear] War Rising on Korean Peninsula

The latest example of bellicose rhetoric came with North Korea warning of nuclear war, as South Korea planned live-fire naval drills to run Monday through Friday. Those drills follow a North Korea artillery attack on front-line Yeonpyeong Island that killed two South Korean marines and two civilians.

Mullen: Risk of War Rising on Korean Peninsula – FoxNews.com

27. In the early 1990s Deng Xiaoping introduced the 24 Characters strategy: keep cool-headed to observe, be composed to make reactions, stand firmly, hide our capabilities and bide our time, never try to take the lead, and be able to accomplish something. What does “hide our capabilities” and “bide our time” mean? Just like the word “jihad”, there are different interpretations. The story below provides one chilling possibility. It suggests that America is in trouble.

The Parable of Goujian

The story of the king [Goujian] who slept on sticks and tasted gall is as known to the Chinese as George Washington and the cherry tree are to Americans. He has become a symbol of resistance against the treaty ports, foreign concessions and the years of colonial humiliation.

King Goujian (Yue) was defeated by King Fuchai (Wu) and taken prisoner. He worked in the royal stables and gradually won the respect of Fuchai. Later he was allow to govern his old kingdom under Fuchai. Goujian quietly bided his time and hide his capabilities over eight years until he was strong enough to finally attack and defeat Fuchai. During the eight years he quietly undermined Fuchai and facilitated Fuchai’s growth of debt.

Taken like that, the parable of Goujian sums up what some people find alarming about China’s rise as a superpower today. Ever since Deng Xiaoping set about reforming the economy in 1978, China has talked peace. Still militarily and economically too weak to challenge America, it has concentrated on getting richer. Even as China has grown in power and rebuilt its armed forces, the West and Japan have run up debts and sold it their technology. China has been patient, but the day when it can once again start to impose its will is drawing near.

Economist Magazine: Sticks and Gall

War Between Wu and Yue

The war between Wu and Yue comprised several separate phases. It was started when a Yue princess, who was married to one of the princes of the neighbouring State of Wu, left her husband and fled back to the country of Yue. This became the spark for the war to come.

Upon the death of Yunchang and the accession of Goujian, King Helü of Wu seized the opportunity and launched an attack on Yue. At the Battle of Zuì L? (????), however, Yue defeated Wu, and King Helü was mortally wounded; before his death he instructed his son, King Fuchai of Wu, “Never forget Yue!” Yue would be defeated three years later by a resurgent Wu, and Goujian captured, to serve as Fuchai’s servant for three years until he was eventually allowed to return to his native state.

Upon resuming his rule King Goujian quickly appointed skilled politicians as advisors, such as Wen Zhong and Fan Li, to help build up the kingdom. During this time, his ministers also worked to weaken the State of Wu internally through bribes and diplomatic intrigue.

All the time, whilst ruling his kingdom, Goujian never relished in riches as a king, but instead ate food suited for peasants, as well as forcing himself to taste bile. This way, he could remember his humiliations while serving under the State of Wu. There is a Chinese idiom, ???? (Pinyin: wò x?n cháng d?n, literally “sleeping on sticks and tasting gall”), the second half of which refers to Goujian’s perseverance.

After ten years of economic and political reforms the last phase of the war began, by which time the State of Yue had come a long way from its previous defeat; as described in the Shiji, Ten years of reforms; the state is rich, the warriors well-rewarded. The soldiers charge in the face of arrows like thirsty men heading for drink… making use of Fuchai’s expedition to struggle with Jin for hegemony Goujian led his army and successfully attacked the Wu capital, killing the crown prince. In the 24th year of his reign (473 BC), Goujian led another expedition, laying siege to the capital for three years before it fell; when a surrender from Fuchai was refused he committed suicide, and Wu was annexed by Yue. After his victory, he ruthlessly killed Fuchai’s scholars and his own scholars who helped him, not allowing himself to make the same mistake Fuchai did by letting his enemies live.

King Goujian’s army was known for forcing their front line, composed of criminals sentenced to death, to commit suicide by decapitation to scare their enemy before battle.

King Goujian of Yue – Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia

28. Demographic problems around the world suggest that great upheaval is ahead.

The weakening of the developed countries might not be a cause for concern if we knew that the world as a whole were likely to become more pacific. But unfortunately, just the opposite may be the case. During the 2020s, the developing world will be buffeted by its own potentially destabilizing demographic storms. China will face a massive age wave that could slow economic growth and precipitate political crisis just as that country is overtaking America as the world’s leading economic power. Russia will be in the midst of the steepest and most protracted population implosion of any major power since the plague-ridden Middle Ages. Meanwhile, many other developing countries, especially in the Muslim world, will experience a sudden new resurgence of youth whose aspirations they are unlikely to be able to meet.

The risk of social and political upheaval could grow throughout the developing world—even as the developed world’s capacity to deal with such threats declines. Yet, if the developed world seems destined to see its geopolitical stature diminish, there is one partial but important exception to the trend: the United States. While it is fashionable to argue that US power has peaked, demography suggests America will play as important a role in shaping the world order in this century as it did in the last.

Global Aging and the Crisis of the 2020s

29. Even the Pentagon is starting to acknowledge that nuclear war may be a distinct possibility with China.

Gates sees what’s going on, and he is worried. So worried, in fact, that he has allowed Pentagon intelligence experts to present an alarming assessment of recent Chinese military moves to the new Congress. The secret briefing describes a pattern of technology investments and breakthroughs signaling that China is likely to be more assertive about its regional security interests in the years ahead. That won’t come as a big surprise to China’s neighbors, many of whom have experienced growing friction with Beijing over maritime sovereignty and territorial boundaries in recent years. But what worries U.S. intelligence analysts is that China is now moving to acquire the kind of sophisticated military systems only America has had — a potentially decisive advantage given the fact that U.S. forces in the Western Pacific are far from home and enjoy access to only a handful of bases in the region.

What that means for the Pentagon is that America’s military must begin preparing for the possibility that it might be in a war with China sometime in the next few decades. …

Inside Pentagon, Growing Alarm Over China’s Military Prowess | Forbes

30. China is not afraid of a nuclear war with America because it is willing to sacrifice its people, the dissident said. Now take a look at the statement of a Chinese general named Zhu Chenghu’s:

… declaring that China would launch nuclear weapons against America if it attacked China and that “we will prepare ourselves for the destruction of all the cities east of Xian,” which would include Beijing, Shanghai, and Canton.

The general is referring to help that America may provide Taiwan in a war with China. If America uses its non-nuclear weapons to protect Taiwan, then China may respond with nuclear weapons. So the fact that China may lose a billion people doesn’t really seem to bother the general. Could you imagine the uproar if a Western general made a similar comment?

Nuclear War with China is Possible, Says Dissident

31. Is a new Pearl Harbor looming on the horizon?

The US strategic position in the Pacific is starting to look a lot like it did 70 years ago — on the eve of Pearl Harbor.

… China in 2011 confronts a US policy swinging from apathy to toughness without the military leverage to back it up. Beijing’s aggressive bullying of neighbors over sovereign rights in the South China Sea, and its steady military buildup, including its navy, deserves presidential attention. But the new militancy from the White House is jarring.

President Obama reassured Asian heads of state in Hawaii last month, “We’re here to stay” — which is supposed to intimidate China into playing nice. Plus, we’re sending troops to Australia to show a “more broadly distributed military presence” in Asia, as Secretary of State Hillary Clinton terms it. Our Navy will step up operations there, too.

Yet that Navy is even smaller than in 1933, with up to 60 more ships destined for retirement with few replacements in sight. And our troops in Australia will number less than 2,500 — just enough to be provocative, but far too small to do anything effective.

Pacific starting to look like ’41

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13 Responses to 25+ Signs That Point to Nuclear War

  1. Shane Connor says:

    Recently DHS & FEMA solicited ideas from the emergency community and public for enhancing our national preparedness at http://www.preparedness.ideascale.com/ .

    The #1 voted “Most Popular” idea there, out of 266 submitted, was a call for the govt to again train the public in Civil Defense in how to personally survive the effects of a nuclear blast and fallout radiation.

    Any family can learn these simple and inexpensive tactics on their own here… http://www.ki4u.com/guide.htm .

    Tragically, most won’t bother because they think nukes are not survivable, but they are wrong, as 80% of the potential casualties are 100% avoidable if the public is trained how to respond from the first instant of the flash onward. Proof of that survivability can be seen in the short 2-page article “The Good News About Nuclear Destruction” here… http://www.ki4u.com/goodnews.htm

  2. Shane Connor says:

    JL, Your book quotes sound about right, and don’t contradict my claim that “80% of the potential casualties are 100% avoidable if the public is trained how to respond from the first instant of the flash”.

    As horrific as the numbers are that you quoted, they don’t begin to tell the whole story, as the total potential casualty numbers are much higher and extend further out from ground zero, from both the blast damage and later downwind from the radioactive fallout.

    That’s where we can save lives, outside the ground zero area of total destruction you’d quoted numbers for, IF the public had been trained beforehand, and that is the basis for my claim that “80% of the potential casualties are 100% avoidable if the public is trained how to respond from the first instant of the flash”.

    Here’s an example of a 500 kt airburst at optimum height for maximum damage. I chose 500 kt because most nuclear weapons today are not bigger than that, but the %’s below hold true for a one megaton bomb, as well. The following is from the Nuclear Attack Environment Handbook, FEMA – August, 1990 and DoD & DoE Effects of Nuclear Weapons, Revised Edition 1977 and can be seen in more detail here… http://www.radshelters4u.com

    For a large 500 KT nuke explosion air burst (Hiroshima air burst was about 15 KT) the lethal zone, for that 500KT bomb, would extend out to about 2.2 miles from Ground Zero (GZ), with overpressures at, or above, 10 psi inside that zone. Few survivors there, that were above ground at the time, as the blast, thermal pulse and initial radiation would have been far too intense.

    The blast is delayed in arriving after the initial flash the further out from ground zero you are. For instance, at that 2.2 mile radius, the blast will arrive about 8 seconds after the initial flash. It’ll be a tornado strength wind lasting about three seconds.

    For all those untrained in ‘Duck & Cover’, the men, women, and children, farther away than 2.2 miles, impulsively rushing to gawk at what that ‘bright flash’ was across town, at work, home, and school, they’d all then be at risk of…

    - Impact lethality out to just over 4 miles.

    - Impact skull fracture and serious glass wounds out to 5 miles.

    - Impact injuries out to over 6 miles, with 50% probability of 3rd degree burns, if in clear line-of-sight at the instant of initial flash.

    - Skin lacerations from glass fragments out to almost 9 miles, with 50% probability of 1st degree burns, if in clear line-of-sight at instant of initial flash.

    If the population was evenly distributed inside that outermost 9 mile blast radius from GZ, there are over 15 times more people beyond that 2.2 mile lethal overpressure zone, than were inside it.

    IOW, if there were 10,000 poor souls, now gone in the first seconds, inside that 2.2 mile lethal zone, there are over 150,000 more outside, still alive, but at grave risk IF they did not know to ‘duck & cover’!

    At that lethal zone edge of 2.2 miles out from GZ, the shock wave and wind blast will be arriving in about eight seconds after the initial flash.

    Everyone further out, those 15 times more people and families, will have even more time to ‘duck & cover’ and avoid becoming additional, unnecessary, casualties. BUT, ONLY IF they’d been trained beforehand in why, when, and how to effectively do so.

    If they die or are injured, most all, as many as 80% or more, will have needlessly, out of ignorance of what to do from that very first second of the flash onward!

    And, regarding radioactive fallout later, which could have even higher potential numbers at risk than the blast itself, most won’t know to move perpendicular away from the downwind drift of the fallout to get out from under it before it even arrives. And, for those who can’t evacuate in time, few know how quick & easy it is to throw together an expedient fallout shelter to safely wait out the radioactive fallout as it loses 99% of its lethal intensity in the first 48 hours!!

    That’s why I say that; “80% of the potential casualties are 100% avoidable if the public is trained how to respond from the first instant of the flash”.

    And, why I consider it a national disgrace that millions are still at risk of perishing needlessly for lack of knowledge that used to be taught at the grade school level.

    See more detail here… http://www.radshelters4u.com

  3. Shane Connor says:

    JL,Couple thoughts…

    Nukes are not going away, they’ll always be with us, unfortunately.

    The less a nation can be defeated by a nuclear attack, the less vulnerable it is to an attack then ever being attempted.

    The stronger our public Civil Defense, both the greater numbers then would not perish in a future nuclear war and the likeliness we’d see one then also decreases.

    Like body armor on a cop or soldier, taking a shot at one both makes it less likely it would kill him and more likely it will then get you killed to have tried.

    The growing prospects of nuclear war will cause the public to panic or go into denial, agreed, but that’s primarily because they think there is no surviving anything nuclear getting unleashed. They think it futile, bordering on lunacy, to even try, and that’s the cause of their despair.

    However, if they ever got the facts, and saw that it truly was survivable for the majority IF they knew what to do beforehand, that is actually very good & hopeful news.

    That’s what we present in our short 2-page article, entitled provocatively; “The Good News About Nuclear Destruction” at http://www.ki4u.com/goodnews.htm

    Give it a read and tell me what you think.

    - Shane

  4. Matt says:

    I have always thought that nuclear war was survivable, but got stuck on the “then what” part. What am I suppose to do with the rest of my life after a nuclear war? As I was thinking about life after a nuclear war, I realized that there were too many unknowns and unknown-unknowns (questions that I’m not smart enough to ask with obviously no answers). For example, could the US be subject to foreign invasion a few years after nuclear war? Perhaps Mexico might retake the Southwest US. What about small forces from other countries? What about gangs? What about disease? What happens when my food storage runs out? I don’t have the answers to these questions.

    Ultimately, I decided that the best course of action was to monitor events closely and leave the US before nuclear war starts. My family and I plan to leave the US in a couple of months. This is based on the approaching regional war in the Middle East.

    In an emergency the vast majority of people severely under-react – they do nothing to save themselves. In discussing nuclear war, I’ve found that people generally won’t take any steps to improve their survivability. For example, I have friends that actually believe that nuclear war is a real possibility, but still won’t do anything to save themselves. They would rather just die. One friend told me as much.

  5. Matt2nd says:

    It was very interesting to follow your discussion, gentlemen.

    To Matt: if I may point out one thing, that would be that I have no doubt that you are [smart enough] but, perhaps you should have phrased your statement a little different and used the word / phrase[informed enough, to date, to know what further questions to ask].

    All three of you sound as if you do your reasearch and perform all due diligence. The difficulty is one of time. There just doesn’t seem to be enough time to properly discover and consume all the pertinent information.

    Personally, I try to do as much as reasonably possible then the rest falls on my personal faith in God (Higher Power).

    Again, good discussion guys!

  6. Matt says:

    Hi Matt2nd,

    Yes, you are right. There isn’t enough time to gave all the information we need. We gather the information we can and try to make reasonable decisions. Hopefully this website can help people make some of those decisions.

  7. Thunderbunny says:

    I think the most difficult thing to get around is the problem of people around you refusing to believe such a thing could happen.

    The second is- would life be worth living as a survivor? Even were you to escape completely unscathed, would you want to live a life of hardship with nothing to look forward to but another day of survival on the edge?

  8. oxi says:

    I would like to give a differant viewpoint. Why isn’t the U.S. mentioned for a reason for starting a nuclear war? Why is it always some foreign nation out there when we are in fact the most agressive imperialistic nation on the planet that has hundreds of bases strung around the world!

    We are the only nation to have started a nuclear war upon Japan in 1945, who says we will not repeat this?

    I do not see Russian troops or warships near U.S. border but what I do see are U.S. troops and warships in Russia’s backyard and China’s.

    Maybe we are the ones trying to pick a fight and Russia and China are just responding to our imperialistic moves!

  9. Matt says:

    Yes, it would appear that the US is the bad guy because it is constantly getting involved in wars. There are two reasons why the U.S. is probably not in position to initiate a nuclear war and will only retaliate. The U.S. has not built up an extensive underground bunker system, and the U.S. president must get the approval of congress to declare war.

    Both Russia and China have been working on an extensive underground bunker system which is almost useless unless they initiate a nuclear attack. The country initiating the attack will always do it during their day. It will be night for the victim. If the U.S. launched a preemptive nuclear attack on Russia and China then the U.S. citizens would have few places to get protection. On the other hand, if Russia and/or China launched a preemptive nuclear attack on America then many of their citizens located in big cities would be able to find protection during the day.

    It is the existence of extensive underground bunker systems that means Russia and China are willing to absorb a nuclear strike from the U.S. Obviously they would prefer not to get into a nuclear war, but they have a better option to do so than the U.S. If the U.S. had an extensive underground bunker system under many of its major cities then I would agree that the U.S. could also launch a preemptive nuclear strike.

    Having to consult with congress is a big problem for a U.S. president. How does one get the approval of congress in secret so Russia and China don’t know about it? One way is to just ignore congress and launch a nuclear strike anyway. This is possible, but Russian and Chinese leaders don’t have this problem.

  10. FallenTree says:

    You could almost stop at #1 cause, when there is a vacuum of power then something will try to replace it.

    I think it will be domestic riots that forces the govt. to declare martial law (read new book about Americans who take a stand against federal tyranny & start the 2nd American Revolution –

    http://www.booksbyoliver.com

    Or, as usual, the Middle East will go up in flames as most predict.

    Great article!!

  11. tamalsdutta says:

    Going through the current views of all thinkers, i am sure that this world is soon going to be in the clutches of judgemental world war (nuclear war), at any time south-asian zone is disturbed, major concern over north-south korea and between china and india wars.

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