By now you may be wondering what separates ECRI’s recession call from the myriad other recession calls out there. First, ECRI’s primary raison d’etre is predicting recession and recovery calls. Second, and more importantly, The Economist reports ECRI has never issued a “false alarm” on a recession call, meaning many of the Chicken Littles currently declaring “the sky is falling” might actually be right this time around.
Monthly Archives: September 2011
This is not an easy call to be made, but it does strike me that there is something wrong with the Chinese economy, even though the focus these days are mostly in Europe, as the European debt crisis is moving ever closer to a tipping point.
For China, it seemed as though a hard-landing
was avoided as of 2 months ago. As it turns out, even myself was
getting a little bit too optimistic. Now, the probability of a
hard-landing is getting even higher than before, in my view, the only
question is when, not if. Although I have not been writing very often
these days about these little stories concerning failure of small and
medium sized businesses, or the overhang of the local government debts
problems, it does not mean that problems aren’t going away.
The Chinese Financial Index fell by 24%, more than that of European and American bank stocks. Chinese banks are plagued by insolvent debts due to loans to local governments and the stagnant property market. The country’s growth, currently estimated at 9.5%, is at risk
According to the Russian government, investors are pulling back because they have been spooked by falling oil prices and global economic turmoil.
But many observers are instead blaming internal political turmoil for the retrenchment, …
The capital flight is matched by a brain drain as the country’s much needed skilled and educated people head for better opportunities abroad.
A recent survey suggests more than a fifth of Russia’s adult population would like to emigrate, compared with 7% in 2007.
JAPAN is seeking a closer security relationship with Australia and the US, flagging new areas of co-operation in arms exports and overseas deployments while warning of China’s growing military strength.
Japan’s ambassador to Australia, Shigekazu Sato, will today outline a vision for a stronger trilateral security relationship and a “hereto unseen” level of co-operation with Australia.
Long Tao wrote that Beijing should strike the Philippines and Vietnam, the two ‘noisiest troublemakers,’ to strike fear into other claimants
The op-ed, titled “A good time to take military action in the South China Sea,” was penned by Long Tao, a strategic analyst at the non-governmental China Energy Fund Committee and also at Zhejiang University’s Non-Traditional Security and Peace Development Research Center.
Through military action, he wrote, China could transform the South China Sea into “a sea of fire,” an act made possible by the fact that “of the more than 1,000 oil rigs and four airfields on the Spratly Islands, none belongs to China.”
When the US announced its decision last week to help Taiwan upgrade
its fleet of ageing fighter aircraft, the response was swift and sharp.
China should take “smart and devious revenge”, advised Major General
Luo Yuan, deputy secretary-general of the academy of military sciences.
He went on to demand “a tooth for a tooth from those who violate China’s
interests”, suggesting his country learn from Russia and deploy missiles against America.
the military now driving China’s foreign policy?” asked Iskander
Rehman, an Indian security analyst, in an article this year. The answer
is yes and no. But the balance may still shift, with substantial
implications for the Asia-Pacific region and beyond.
Turkey’s prime minister has called for United Nations sanctions on Israel at the same time that Turkish prosecutors are threatening to indict Israel’s prime minister and others in connection with the 2010 Mavi Marmara flotilla raid.
Coupled with other aggressive moves, including threats to break Israel’s
Gaza blockade with military force, Turkey is waging a diplomatic war on
its former ally.
Leading the charge is Turkey’s Islamist Prime Minister Recep Tayyip Erdo?an, who has become one of Israel’s most outspoken critics on the international stage.
Army defectors in Syria have reportedly started launching attacks on government forces, suggesting that the six-month-long rebellion has reached a turning point.
Despite President Bashar al-Assad using all forces at his command to repress the opposition, the anti-government forces have gained from the dissidence within the army.
Japanese defense officials and their Southeast Asian counterparts agreed this week on the need to deepen regional cooperation amid concerns about China’s growing assertiveness in the South China Sea, as Tokyo again signaled its willingness to play a bigger role with its neighbors.