“Any historian worth his salt knows that massive military build-ups and chest-thumping speeches about national destiny is a dangerous combination,” he said, referring to a recent Pentagon report on Chinese military buildup.
“The Pentagon report outlined a country that is emboldened with new found military might and drunk with economic power. The Chinese are convinced that they have been given an opening with our current financial crisis,” he said.
A major forest fire is not going to occur unless the foundation is set beforehand. So one must first look for this foundation. When you see its then you will know that a massive fire is probably not that far away.
War works the same way. The foundation for war is set before a major war occurs. History provides the signs. Interestingly, both war and forest fires follow the same mathematical distribution – the power law distribution. That means we must be coldly analytical about war and stop emotionally thinking it can’t happen. But nuclear war with the Soviet Union didn’t happen, what’s different this time? Time!
Getting back to our forest fire example, ‘time’ is a key ingredient for the development of a massive forest fire. Right after a massive forest fire one should not expect another massive forest fire. The conditions for another massive fire don’t exist. However, over time there is a buildup of old trees and dead bushes that provide the conditions for a massive fire.
War works in a similar manner. A massive war like World War II effectively wipes the slate clean in terms of another massive war. Most of the people that directly experienced World War II need to die before the world becomes susceptible to another such war. That’s because war changed the thinking of these people which made them less susceptible to another big war. Future generations become susceptible all over again. You can see some of this thinking in action with the drive to eliminate nuclear weapons.
Why does the US need thousands of nuclear weapons? After all, you can only blow up a country once. Sending more missiles to blow up the same cities several times seems like a waste. What gives?
An adversary like China or Russia does not think the same way as those in the US. They have poured massive resources into building underground bunkers for millions of their citizens. One Russian underground bunker is the size of an entire city. What does that tell you about their thinking? It tells you that they are willing to absorb a nuclear strike from America. It also tells you that both Russia and China are planning a first strike capability, or these facilities would be generally useless. They would not be effective against an American first strike in the middle of the night because they would be sleeping. Only a preemptive strike in the middle of the day (American night) would make them effective.
China and Russia would be willing to absorb an America retaliatory strike. They can go down into their bunkers and wait for 30 days. If this were not true then they wouldn’t be building underground nuclear bunkers for their citizens. But what about an American nuclear strike that comes again after three months, six months and 12 months? It is the ability to keep striking our enemies again and again that strikes fear into their heart. There is no protection against this, short of living underground for the rest of their lives which is not possible.
Thanks to George Bush and Barrack Obama our ability to strike again and again has been eliminated. For the first time, America is at risk of military defeat and complete destruction.