Why do we need to avoid war unless of course we are on the path to war? And indeed we are according to the author.
Relations between the United States and China are on a course that may one day lead to war.
In these disputes, Chinese nationalism collides with other nationalisms — particularly that of Vietnam, which embodies strong historical resentments. The hostility to China of Vietnam and most of the other regional states is at once America’s greatest asset and greatest danger. It means that most of China’s neighbors want the United States to remain militarily present in the region. As White argues, even if the United States were to withdraw, it is highly unlikely that these countries would submit meekly to Chinese hegemony.
But if the United States were to commit itself to a military alliance with these countries against China, Washington would risk embroiling America in their territorial disputes. In the event of a military clash between Vietnam and China, Washington would be faced with the choice of either holding aloof and seeing its credibility as an ally destroyed, or fighting China.
Let’s assume you are a country who thought war was probably inevitable. Your adversary has enough nuclear weapons to strike one time. That means the regime leaders (you), the military and a few million citizens near the major cities can survive in underground bunkers in a best case scenario where everyone gets to an underground bunk in time. 5 to 10% of the other population will probably survive.
Should you wait for a war to break out naturally? In that case you may well die along with your military and most other citizens. Or should you launch a preemptive attack to ensure the best case outcome as listed above?
Do you think Chinese leaders might be going through this thought process?
Here is an even better scenario:
The Middle East blows up after Israel attacks Iran. Israel ends up nuking all of its neighbors.
In a sick sort of way, this is a gift to Russia and China. Here we have an independent event that does not include them. It would act as justification to launch a preemptive nuclear attack on America. If they both think that war is a real likelihood anyway in the near future, then this event will cause them to work together.
The above article tells us that America and China are on the path to war. What about Russia? Since the fall of the Soviet Union, Russia has literally turned into a mafia state. Russian anti-Americanism is becoming acute, and threat of a Russian revolution is becoming a concern. The threats of nuclear war over western interference in the Middle East have been getting louder.
What would happen if your country was starting to become unstable? For example, there are lots of protests where people are wanting to throw out their leaders. A revolution was a possibility. In that case the leaders (you) have a good chance of dying. Is nuclear war looking so bad? Bad for the people yes, but not quite so bad for you. It’s better than you getting the axe (literally), right?
Are Chinese and Russian leaders in danger of getting the axe? Take a look at these articles:
- “Putin’s Final Act” by Nina L. Khrushcheva | Project Syndicate
- Vladimir the Unstable | Foreign Policy
- A Kremlin Made of Sand – By Leon Aron | Foreign Policy
- Vladimir Putin’s regime facing the ‘beginning of the end’: Peter Goodspeed | National Post
- China’s Elite Are Privately Talking About A Revolution
- China’s Simmering Discontent: The Biggest Challenge to Social Harmony | Global Spin | TIME.com
- As China Marches Ahead, Is It On Solid Ground? – NYTimes.com