Russian military forces have been gathering in Dagestan’s mountainous districts at the Georgian and Azerbaijani borders, Contact.az reported Aug. 29, citing a number of Dagestani internet sources.
Both the troops and the military equipment have been amassed in the Botlikh district, according to Vdagestan.com.
Local residents reported that the military forces intend to hit the Dagestani insurgents’ bases in the mountains before the winter. According to other reports, they are preparing a military operation against Georgia.
Russian military expert Pavel Felgenhauer said several months ago that Russia was preparing to bring in its troops into Georgia in order to de-block its military base in Armenia, which may be isolated due to possible military actions against Iran.
Monthly Archives: August 2012
It’s not that Wen Jiabao doesn’t get the extent to which the supposedly unstoppable China has hit a wall. Just as in 2009, the premier is visiting key industrial cities such as Guangdong and Zhejiang. Wen is facing dour looks from manufacturers surrounded by mounting piles of unsold goods, a rare experience for the main engine of China’s economic rise.
Factory warehouses are cluttered with excess stock, store shelves are filled beyond capacity, and dealerships are choked with cars that used to speed from showroom to road. And yet Wen’s team in Beijing has been eerily silent about how it plans to revive things. That may be because the short answer is, it doesn’t.
One problem is that China has run out of obvious ways to kick-start its $7.3 trillion economy. …
But the agency’s report has also put Israel in a corner, documenting that Iran is close to crossing what Israel has long said is its red line: the capability to produce nuclear weapons in a location invulnerable to Israeli attack.
With the report that the country has already installed more than 2,100 centrifuges inside a virtually impenetrable underground laboratory, and that it has ramped up production of nuclear fuel, officials and experts here say the conclusions may force Israel to strike Iran or concede it is not prepared to act on its own.
Much of that research attempted to understand why banks failed in unison, sapping the credit markets and crashing the economy. It was a chain of events that the Ph.D.s at the Fed had failed to foresee. Their subsequent research has given them a better grasp of why they missed the collapse, but it’s also revealed how poorly traditional macroeconomic methods predict systemic bank failure and the domino effect it can unleash on the economy. A survey published last fall by an economist with the Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond showed that macroeconomic models typically assume that there will always be enough credit in the financial system. “In the post-crisis environment, the single most important macro event of our lifetime, our models are totally unable to comprehend it,” says Lehnert. The Fed’s economists realized that in order to do their jobs, they needed to have a better understanding of finance, something most macroeconomists are trained to ignore in graduate school, says Lehnert. They needed to start thinking like bankers, and using bankers’ risk-management tools for their own purposes.
This is really an indictment of modern economics. Most of the modern economics profession is an embarrassment, and continues to be an embarrassment. Economics experts love to stand up and tell us with great authority what will be. But then they miss so much over time that their predictions end up being worthless. For all of that they end up getting promoted instead of being fired for incompetence.
Do not believe what economists tell you. Just go with common sense instead. If you don’t understand it or it seems strange, then don’t do it. Don’t believe all the crap about the benefits of this or that – mostly derivatives that nobody understands. All the benefits and a lot more go down the drain when everything blows up in a crisis they that economists did not foresee.
Essentially, economists put us on a model with a slow drip of profits year after year, then one day everything blows up and all is lost. And, to make matters worse, when it is pointed out that they need to change the foundation of their models, they won’t do it. They won’t change their models because then everything would break. The foundation of their models is the “normal distribution.” It is well known that this distribution undercounts tail-risk by a factor of 10 to 20. All financial models need to replace the normal distribution with the power-law distribution or something similar to properly account for tail risk. But they won’t do it because their special formulas wouldn’t work anymore. They have to go back to the drawing board and develop new formulas based on a new distribution – and that could get ugly. So everybody ignores this nasty little problem. No problem until the next big crisis hits and everything starts blowing up again – think AIG and the CDS market.
We are suffering today because of the incompetence of the economics profession.
In 2009, to considerable fanfare, the U.S. Navy, the Defense Advanced Research Projects Agency, and defense firm Lockheed Martin inaugurated the Long-Range Anti-Ship Missile program. Researchers considered two variants, a subsonic LRASM-A and a supersonic LRASM-B, before scrapping the LRASM-B last January. Testing of the LRASM-A’s sensor suite commenced this spring, while DARPA forecasts that the missile will undergo flight testing starting in 2014.
One guesstimate at the bird’s range is 500 nautical miles, about a sevenfold improvement over the Harpoon’s advertised combat reach. It will be largely self-contained from a fire-control standpoint, reducing its dependence on external data for detecting and acquiring targets. That’s essential for hotly contested settings, where defenders will put a premium on blinding or eliminating U.S. assets that track the whereabouts of enemy, friendly, and neutral units.
This article states that the”zone of immunity” as defined by Defense Minister Ehud Barak will be reached in a matter of weeks. This implies that Israel must bomb Iran within weeks or it will be too late.
The Israelis in favor of military action, led by Defense Minister Ehud Barak, the most outspoken proponent of moving quickly against the Iranian program, will point to evidence that Iran has now installed over 2,100 of the roughly 2,800 centrifuges destined for the underground site, called Fordow. More than 1,000 have been installed in the last three months, since the last report by the agency. For Mr. Barak, that is evidence that the “zone of immunity” he has warned about — the point at which Iran will be able to produce nuclear fuel from a site invulnerable to attack — will be reached in a matter of weeks.
Definition of “Zone of Immunity:”
Israel’s defense minister, Ehud Barak, coined the phrase “zone of immunity” to define the circumstances under which Israel would judge it could no longer hold off from an attack because Iran’s effort to produce a bomb would be invulnerable to any strike.
North Korea’s “new look” leadership, including speculation about both leadership and potential economic reforms, have drawn the lion’s share of media attention in recent weeks. As a result, the fact that North Korea’s nuclear program continues unchecked has dropped from the headlines following North Korea’s failed rocket launch in April and the subsequent breakdown of the Obama administration’s “leap day” understanding with North Korea. An article this month by Frank V. Pabian and Siegfried Hecker in the Bulletin of Atomic Scientists and an Institute of Science and International Security (ISIS) report by David Albright and Christina Walrond are firm reminders that North Korea’s nuclear program continue regardless of whether or not they are in the headlines.