“With the challenges facing the United States and the rise of China, there is a sense that some new system is emerging,” said Jamie Metzl, a senior fellow at the Asia Society think tank. “Many of these conflicts that had been on ice are defrosting, and countries are pushing claims to test and explore the contours of the new power structure. When China challenges Japan, it is also challenging the U.S.-Japan alliance.”
U.S. Secretary of State Hillary Rodham Clinton and Defense Secretary Leon E. Panetta have said during recent visits to East Asia that Washington won’t take sides in territorial spats between longtime allies and the economic powerhouse of China. Instead, U.S. officials have urged the nations to work through Asian diplomatic alliances or the U.N. Convention on the Law of the Sea. There have also been calls for plans for mutually exploring, extracting and protecting the coveted resources.
“The fishing reserves grow more valuable as other fish stocks along the coast are depleted. There’s plenty of reason to have a region-wide regime” for coordinating fishing seasons and sharing in the take, said Douglas Paal, vice president for studies at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace.
“With the challenges facing the United States and the rise of China, there is a sense that some new system is emerging,”
Yes, strategically there is a new international order starting to push through.
Key Points from the Global Trend 2025 Report
- The international system—as constructed following the Second World War—will be almost unrecognizable by 2025 owing to the rise of emerging powers, a globalizing economy, an historic transfer of relative wealth and economic power from West to East, and the growing influence of nonstate actors
- By 2025, the international system will be a global multipolar one with gaps in national power continuing to narrow between developed and developing countries.
- Historically, emerging multipolar systems have been more unstable than bipolar or unipolar ones.
- We do not believe that we are headed toward a complete breakdown of the international system, as occurred in 1914-1918 when an earlier phase of globalization came to a halt.
- However, the next 20 years of transition to a new system are fraught with risks. Strategic rivalries are most likely to revolve around trade, investments, and technological innovation and acquisition, but we cannot rule out a 19th century-like scenario of arms races, territorial expansion, and military rivalries.
- China is poised to have more impact on the world over the next 20 years than any other country.
With the American empire in decline and a new international order in the creation phase, what is in store for the world?
In order to cope with what is to come, one must get the big picture right. The big picture is that America is in decline and big changes a coming. And you are probably not going to like these changes. Change will be forced upon you whether you like it or not.
One historian (Alfred W. McCoy is professor of history at the University of Wisconsin-Madison) discusses some of the possible changes coming our way. He expects the changes to happen a lot sooner than people think. There will be no gentle decline for the next 100 years. The ugliness will have completed by 2025.
“The future scenarios include: economic decline, oil shock, military misadventure, and World War III.”
To learn more about these scenarios check out the following article.
The Decline and Fall of the American Empire – CBS News
Despite the aura of omnipotence most empires project, a look at their history should remind us that they are fragile organisms. So delicate is their ecology of power that, when things start to go truly bad, empires regularly unravel with unholy speed: just a year for Portugal, two years for the Soviet Union, eight years for France, 11 years for the Ottomans, 17 years for Great Britain, and, in all likelihood, 22 years for the United States, counting from the crucial year 2003.
Viewed historically, the question is not whether the United States will lose its unchallenged global power, but just how precipitous and wrenching the decline will be. In place of Washington’s wishful thinking, let’s use the National Intelligence Council’s own futuristic methodology to suggest four realistic scenarios for how, whether with a bang or a whimper, U.S. global power could reach its end in the 2020s (along with four accompanying assessments of just where we are today). The future scenarios include: economic decline, oil shock, military misadventure, and World War III. While these are hardly the only possibilities when it comes to American decline or even collapse, they offer a window into an onrushing future.