The AP Graphs: A Preliminary Discussion

The Associated Press recently received a figure from a country that purportedly showed an Iranian calculation of the explosive yield rate and yield of a simulated nuclear explosion. (It should be noted that the AP showed only two graphs in one figure; the other graphs in the possession of the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) were not shown to the AP).

One of the graphs, the yield rate, had a major error in its units, which was very embarrassing to the AP. Subsequently, the AP moved quickly to correct this error, and in the process reported that the graph’s incorrect units had been deliberately changed to ease the understanding of the graph by an Iranian non-technical audience. The underlying spreadsheet in the possession of the IAEA has the correct units and numbers, adding plausibility to this explanation.

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The purpose of this presentation is to discuss these graphs, their possible meaning, and explore their shape and their similarity to graphs generated by a Los Alamos computer code used to model nuclear explosions.

(These slides are an expanded version of a set that was part of a recent power point presentation on recent developments in Iran’s nuclear program. I would like to thank those who commented on these slides and made suggestions to improve them.)

Read the full presentation here: The AP Graphs: A Preliminary Discussion