I’m going on vacation starting tomorrow (Thursday). I will be back on Sunday. We are headed for Europa Park in Germany. People say this when told – “what?” Why would you go to Germany for a vacation at this time? Other people (there’s that feedback loop thing) say it’s actually pretty good to go at this time of the year. Clearly, it won’t be crowded.

What about skiing?

Around 20 years ago I had a major skiing accident. I got an ambulance trip to the hospital. Then there was surgery and physical therapy. Finally, my shoulder was never the same again. I toned down my skiing after that. Later, I stopped skiing.

I am hoping that the US is still around when I get back: Professor: Don’t Be Surprised If There’s A War Between Japan And China In The Next Year. And the US will get sucked into it. If an Australian professor understands that China is headed for war with Japan and the US, do you think that Chinese leaders are aware too? Do you think it’s possible that Chinese leaders have decided nuclear war with the US is an option? I would guess yes to both questions.

I don’t actually think China will go to war with the US in 2013. However, I think China may make the decision (in 2013) to attack the US. Once the decision is made then it will wait for the right time – 2014 or 2015. Something may happen during 2013 that will cause China to make that decision. My personal favorite is that the Middle East blows up, but it could be something else. It could also be conflict over the Senkaku Islands.

The first rule of modeling: Do not confuse your model with the real world. When modeling (forecasting) the future, do not assume that you know everything. Be prepared for surprises. That’s why I live in Switzerland and not in the US. I think there is still a little time, but what if I am wrong?

Remember the forest model – society moves into the future like a forest. If we can identify when a forest is susceptible to a major forest fire, then the same goes for society. In a forest it is impossible to know when the fire is going to hit, but once we see the signs then we can move out. I have identified that the historical signs of war are present. In a Foreign Policy Magazine article by Niall Ferguson in early 2009, he said we have entered the age of upheaval based on the the presence of the 3 Es – Empires in decline, economic volatility and ethnic conflict (the Middle East conflict). We entered this age with the arrival of the financial crisis in late 2008. Niall’s statement hit me like a ton of bricks. It was like someone hit a switch inside me. At that moment I made the decision to get out of the US. I knew what Niall meant by the age of upheaval. This was not a joke.

Now most people cannot comprehend that China would launch a nuclear preemptive strike on the US. It seems to be irrelevant that Mao killed 50 to 60 million of his own people. However, would the leaders of China be tempted to attack the US if there is a serious danger of revolution? If they are going to die anyway, then maybe nuclear war is not such a bad option.

We will have to watch events in 2013 very closely. You would be wise to prepare for nuclear war. It may not happen in 2013, but it won’t be much longer.

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