ARMED conflict between Japan and China over the five tiny, uninhabited Senkaku or Diaoyu islands still seems improbable. But that does not make it impossible. This week it was revealed just how close their stand-off has come to a shoot-out. …
Oddly, the January 30th incident came just as tensions seemed to be easing. …
The alternative, however—that this is a deliberate policy sanctioned at the highest level—may be even scarier. And a new study of China’s foreign policy by Linda Jakobson of the Lowy Institute, an Australian think-tank, argues that Chinese treatment of the islands is in fact tightly co-ordinated, with Mr Xi in direct charge as the head of a new office set up to deal with the crisis. She cites an anonymous official involved in the decision-making, who suggests that Mr Xi knows the dangers but is being given “exaggerated assessments” by underlings keen that he should take a tough stance.
The actual process driving this conflict forward is similar to the process that drives the stock market forward. Notice how stock markets move forward with wave patterns. It’s not all up or down. There is movement up, then a break. Then it continues up, then another break. Under the small patterns lie bigger patterns. This is all part of a feedback loop process that drives both stock markets and wars.
China’s military build up over the last few decades has been relentless. Over the last few years China’s aggressiveness with its neighbors has been steadily increasing. In the conflict with Japan, the general trend is toward increased conflict. So even though we can see small breaks in the pattern of tension, the overall trend is toward increased tension. It appears now the conflict has reached a point where shooting might occur. Perhaps we should see another break where both parties back off before seeing tension start to increase again.
Where we go from here is not looking good. Take a look at this next article that I posted on Feb. 17, 2012.
Xi Jinping May Have to Heed Military Hot Heads [Who are Threatening War] | Epoch Times
The Chinese Communist Party’s (CCP) next leader may have to acquiesce to hawkish generals in the military in order to consolidate his rule, according to a senior China analyst.
Willy Lam, who has written about CCP elite politics for several decades, characterized the prospect as “a worry” at a conference on China security and defense issues on Feb. 16.
Xi Jinping, who is completing a four-day tour of the United States, is expected to take the helm of the regime in fall of this year.Sponsored Ads
But, according to Lam, “Xi Jinping’s major power base is not in the Party, not in the government, but in the PLA,” or the People’s Liberation Army.
Despite the fact that many of the pronouncements made by Chinese generals and military personalities over the last five or so years may have been calculated to “boost the budget,” it’s possible that “those hawkish statements might represent perhaps a hawkish turn in Chinese foreign policy and security policy in general,” Lam said.
The bellicose remarks made by prominent generals, admirals and others that Lam refers to, began about half-way through the rule of Hu Jintao, Lam said.
Generals began issuing aggressive statements about potential warfare scenarios, and portrayed the United States as an enemy and an aggressor bent on “containing” China.
“In the last four years we’ve seen a very disturbing increase both in terms of the frequency and harshness of messages of generals,” Lam said.
“Many of my friends in Beijing who are liberal academics were very disturbed,” he added.
In particular, Lam said, “in the past several months we have seen an exacerbation and escalation of this totally irresponsible, even to the point of warmongering, statements, made by these generals.”
On Dec. 4, for example, Chinese rear admiral and prominent military commentator Zhang Zhaozhong told an Iranian state television network that “China will not hesitate to protect Iran even with a third world war.”
These remarks are made “totally known and with permission,” Lam said. “There are no countervailing comments by senior academics, the civilian advisers have turned a blind eye to these statements, and there is now a fear… that many of these generals making war mongering statements are somehow connected to Xis’ very close knit circle of princeling generals.”