Senkaku Islands are “core interest” of China, Xi tells Obama | GlobalPost

Chinese President Xi Jinping told U.S. President Barack Obama during their recent talks in California that the Japanese-administered Senkaku Islands in the East China Sea are a “core interest” of China, a source close to U.S.-China ties said Tuesday.

Xi’s remarks during his first summit with Obama indicate that Beijing wants Washington to prod Tokyo to make concessions to ease tensions over the issue, political analysts said.

Senkaku Islands are “core interest” of China, Xi tells Obama | GlobalPost

China has made clear in the past that it is willing to go to war over its core interests. Japan’s strategy seems to be less confrontational, but nevertheless it will not acquiesce to China’s demands. The situation is slowly ratcheting upward toward a forceful confrontation since neither will step backward.

Given that China’s economy is starting to lose steam, domestic instability could start increasing from its current level of instability. Chinese leaders have to be worried about this. Additionally, this domestic instability could push China to be more forceful over the Senkaku Islands reducing the time to direct conflict with Japan. A Chinese think tank thinks a military clash is a clear possibility.

Chinese think tank warns of military clashes with Japan – The Economic Times

It warned that a military clash with Japan could happen if the dispute escalates, saying the confrontation between the two countries over disputed Diaoyu Islands in East China Sea may extend from the sea to the air.

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He warned that this is a dangerous game that could spiral out of control and finally hurt the US.

Chinese think tank warns of military clashes with Japan – The Economic Times

In my About page I heavily discuss the way things collapse. When a system reaches a point where a small event can have a large impact, then the system has reached a pre-collapse state or tipping point. Once it reaches this point then it’s probably too late. Either the system has to make fundamental changes or it will eventually collapse. The most likely outcome is collapse.

In the case of the Senkaku Islands conflict one can see that it is headed for collapse – war. The only real issue is timing, which brings us to Israel.

If the conflict in the Middle East between Israel and Syria escalates to the point where Israel uses nuclear weapons, then that crosses a red line. That represents a first use of nuclear weapons by the US. It doesn’t matter that the US didn’t actually use them. It is enough that Israel uses them. Now China (and Russia too) has an excuse for a preemptive nuclear strike on the US.

Everybody knows that China and Russia would never attack the US unprovoked because of retaliation. However, this is a ground-zero error. You do not know what Chinese and Russian leaders are thinking. You do not know if they are willing to sustain heavy losses in order to get rid of the US. And thanks to recent US nuclear reductions, an enemy (China and Russia) willing to accept heavy losses can defeat the US.