The Syrian war they believe marks the beginning of the end for the Sykes-Picot Agreement, which divided the Ottoman Empire after World War I and created the modern Middle East.
Hisham Jaber, a retired Lebanese army general and now the director of a political think tank in Beirut, believes the likely outcome of the civil war is the breakup of Syria. He foresees Alawites, members of an offshoot sect of Shia Islam, and Christians cleaving together along Syria’s coast, and Kurds and Sunni Muslims establishing separate states of their own.
That would have devastating repercussions across the region, he warns.
“In my opinion the unity of Lebanon, of Turkey, of Jordan, of Iraq will not be secure or guaranteed at all,” he said.
American University political science professor Bassel Saloukh, based in Lebanon, agrees. He says the Arab Spring-uprisings, along with the geopolitical rivalry of Sunni Saudi Arabia and Shiite Iran, have pushed the region into unchartered and dangerous waters. He suspects the sectarianism that has been unleashed will mean at the very least the end of strong unitary states for many Middle East countries.Sponsored Ads
Back in May 2012 I posted the following article:
Entering the Age of Great Upheaval | 1913 Intel
The Global Trends 2025 report suggests that the international system as we know it today – created out of the ashes of World War II – “will be almost unrecognizable by 2025″. The last international system broke-down during World War I – 1914 to 1918. Trends in place today suggest major discontinuities, shocks, and surprises. In other words, we should not be surprised by great upheaval to everything we know.
If we shouldn’t be surprised by great upheaval, then we shouldn’t be surprised by events in the Middle East. Also, who said this upheaval would stop in the Middle East? The great powers are backing various parties in the Middle East. Why can’t they get sucked in?
See how close to unraveling the world really is: From Arab Spring to Global Revolution | 1913 Intel. It’s as if the world is a house of cards just waiting to come down. Russia, China and Iran are actually pushing for a new world order: Emergence of New International Order: Iran wants ‘new world order’ | 1913 Intel