Will the United States and China get along?

If the best hope for good US-China relations is a highly restrained grand strategy by Beijing, and this type of strategy by Beijing would be historically unprecedented, then we are in trouble. Indeed, there is quite a bit of evidence that China seeks to be regional great power suggesting that the US and China will not get along.

Historically, if a rising power comes into conflict with a hegemonic power, then the chance of war is very high.

The paramount question looming over twenty-first century international politics is: will the United States and China get along?

The best hope for amicable U.S.-China relations rests on Beijing adopting a highly restrained grand strategy, but it would be historically unprecedented if it did so. …

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Indeed, a look at China’s national-security policy—its pursuit of antiaccess capabilities, its territorial claims, and discussions of claims to “second island chains”—suggests that it is (at a minimum) aspiring to be a regional great power. The remaining questions are the extent to which Beijing will confine its ambitions to East Asia (as opposed to pursuing a global strategy), and the extent to which it will tolerate U.S. global leadership or seek to undermine U.S. influence.

Commentary: The Sources of the Sino-American Spiral | The National Interest