‘If we don’t have the luck to circumvent a war, we should deal with it with rationality a big power should have.’
Should one drone of China be fired upon, hostility between Beijing and Tokyo will be fully activated and the situation of Northeast Asia will topple like dominoes. The outbreak of a regional war is possible. Although the US’ support to Japan is obvious, it’s uncertain how the US will interfere. There is too much variance concerning where a China-Japan military clash will go.
China has not been involved in war for a long time but a war looms following Japan’s radical provocation. China’s comprehensive military power, including the navy, air force and the Second Artillery Force of the PLA, is stronger than Japan’s. Once a war breaks out, China will also be able to bear the economic blow better than Japan.Sponsored Ads
A regional war between China and Japan is not likely to stay regional. China would not likely prevail against Japan unless it attacked the Japanese mainland, hence triggering a US response. Since the Chinese already know this, it would most likely attack the US directly at an early point in a regional war with Japan. Given that the current regime would likely be toppled if it failed to defeat Japan, any military incident with Japan has the potential to rapidly jump to the US without notice.
I think a more likely scenario than regional war is a Sarajevo moment: An incident that causes the Chinese to prepare quietly for nuclear war. Yes, the cooler heads prevail but only to plan something bigger. At some point months later there is a bolt out of the blue nuclear attack on the US and Japan. Perhaps the thinking goes something like this: It is better that 90% of Chinese die than the regime being toppled. One could also imagine that the Chinese are finally able to execute an exorcism of their demons: Western and Japanese humiliation in history.
Right now the US and Japan are in the danger zone. The very real possibility of nuclear attack hangs over their heads. One wrong incident could cause a massive collapse in the form on nuclear war. It’s 1913 or 1914. Time is short.