The Guns of August … in April?

“We also saw these same dynamics at play almost exactly one hundred years ago on the eve of World War I.”

Secret mobilizations. Attacks with plausible deniability. Unclear alliance commitments. Vague statements of resolve. A battle for neutral parties. Highly provocative military movements. We have seen these events take place in the last few weeks in the crisis in Ukraine. We also saw these same dynamics at play almost exactly one hundred years ago on the eve of World War I.

These dynamics are slowly bringing us ever closer to a showdown, which most recently took the form of Russian fighter jets “buzzing” an American warship in the Black Sea. If the US ship had fired on the Russian fighter, Germany would have an even more difficult time whole-heartedly supporting NATO and the United States. These provocations will continue, as Putin officially touts his efforts to ease tensions, all while moving his paramilitary forces further into Ukraine. Soon enough, these forces will reach a point where large-scale conflict erupts. Just as in 1914, the uncertainty of this game of perceptions and neutrality are slowly carrying us closer to a larger conflict.

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The way out is the same as in 1914. …
The Guns of April?

The long period of stability since the end of World War II has put most people to sleep. It’s difficult, if not impossible, to imagine the real possibility of a great-power war. I am seeing enough articles on a regular basis discussing the possibility of a war with Russia or China to take these kinds of reports seriously. We are near a great-power war – probably within a year or two. Although, the timing is impossible to know.

Notice that both Russia and China are free to provoke the West and its allies. However, the other side must be very careful, or we could be facing a great-power war. If you find that it only takes something small to cause a large event, then that means things are in a pre-collapse state. Also, it is only a matter of time before the full collapse happens. In this case, full collapse means a great-power war.