“It isn’t what we don’t know that gives us trouble, it’s what we know that ain’t so.” – Will Rogers
Look at 9/11. Or what about the 2008 financial crisis? What about the earthquake that hit Fukushima? What about Chernobyl? All of these were things we know but didn’t really know – the ain’t so part. That’s what tripped us up – the things we know that aren’t so.
The New Abnormal
One by one different countries are stacking up on the edge of a cliff. First there was Japan who has been stuck economically at the cliff for 20 years. More recently the US and the EU have moved up to the edge. Now China is moving up to the edge.
Forget the new normal. Five full years after the financial crisis, we’ve entered a period of increasing global uncertainty and instability that’s almost certain to trigger a new crisis.
[Published on June 17, 2013.]
Watch a video on this topic here: http://video.cnbc.com/gallery/?video=3000176315
At Davos, they are calling it the “new normal:” At Davos, Crisis Is the New Normal – NYTimes.com
There is dangerous positive feedback and moral hazard present in modern democracy, under which far too many people “demand” ever bigger government but contribute only sloth and indolence.
What is happening is that country after country is doing everything possible to suppress the big collapse. All the problems that caused the big crisis in the first place are left in place continuing to grow. They are stuck in the middle of a phase transition where things don’t act normally. This is the new abnormal.
To get a better understanding of how collapse takes places, please check this out: A System Collapse Framework for Societies
I bet you get a sense that the global economic scene is not doing very well. But what does that mean? Please check out a little history:
1. Financial crisis in 1907, and World War I in 1914.
2. Financial crisis in 1929, and World War II in 1939.
3. Financial crisis in 2008, and World War III in 2015?
Interesting, no? Will we get a great-power war in 2015? It might not be 2015, but the tension between China and Japan looks like it is set to explode sooner, rather than later. And a direct military conflict between the two will most certainly involve the US. So I wouldn’t rule out 2015.
In A System Collapse Framework for Societies I explain why after a long period of stability a shock in one area implies big problems in other areas as well. Even if they are unrelated. It has to do with the rate of growth of bad ideas, bad decisions and corruption.
Historically, what happens when a superpower is approached or passed by another country, like the US vs China? The probability of war is at least 75% and could go as high as 100%. Right now conflict in the East China Sea between China and Japan is threatening to escalate:
We are looking at the serious possibility of a a major military conflict between China and Japan within a few years or less. The US will almost surely get drawn into this conflict.
War in the Middle East is also threatening to escalate into something much bigger:
When a forest is old and ready for a massive fire, sooner or later it’s going to happen. The same concept applies to societies. Sooner or later something big is going to happen after a long period of relative stability. That is where we find ourselves today.
For more information about why the US is in trouble, please read this PDF file here. I put my old About page into that PDF file.
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