The focus of this website is about problems and dangers coming our way – emerging risks. I follow how the America dollar is falling, and the national debt is increasing. I examine how tension in the Middle East is increasing. I’m looking at the tension between America, Russia and China.

Is some major problem about to blow up in our faces? I want to know.

In fact, it looks like the Middle East just might blow up soon. Check out this article: Armageddon – Forbes.Com

Iran is working diligently on developing an advanced nuclear warhead capable of being mounted on a missile: Iran Studied Advanced Nuke Trigger, IAEA Findings Suggest

There are problems long the India-China border: India is preparing for possible war with China and Pakistan

A nuclear armed North Korea is more of a threat than you might think: Top China Advisor Worried Over Nuclear-Armed N. Korea

There are several articles about historian Niall Ferguson’s insight into our dollar crisis.

Niall Ferguson: Dollar Is Doomed, U.S. Empire Over — Seeking Alpha

Ferguson: How Economic Weakness Endangers the U.S. | Newsweek.com

We also have a debt crisis.

Three Government Reports Point to Fiscal Doomsday

Effectively, we are on the expressway to a supercritical, economic meltdown. In “Destination U.S. – Do you like a lot of pain and suffering?”, I explain forest fires, sandpiles, economies and societies (war) are similar – they follow the Power Law. All of these items are subject to collapse and are quite predictable by a simple mathematical equation. However, the exact timing of the collapse can never be known. The Power Law provides a mathematical equation for the size of collapse over a period of time.

It is the forest fire that provides the most interesting demonstration of what happens when you remove small and intermediate collapses. If firefighters put out small and intermediate fires then the forest is put on the path to supercritical burn.

The economy works in the same way because we know it follows the same Power Law. Cushioning the impact of smaller economic collapses just puts us on the path to a supercritical, economic meltdown. The meltdown is now on the horizon: The Next Big Bubble?

China is also on the path to economic meltdown: Is China headed toward collapse? – POLITICO.com. If China experiences a large economic collapse then who is going to buy U.S. debt? If there is a large gap is U.S. debt buyers, then what does that mean for the future of U.S. interest rates? I think that means U.S. interest rates could spike upwards.

Perhaps an even bigger problem is the unknown political changes that could be provoked in China due to the economic collapse. How will the leadership react? For example, could the Chinese leadership refocus attention by attacking Taiwan?

Here are just a few of issues you can learn before most people:

1. I started posting reports a full 10 months before the global financial crisis hit with full force. Check out these two reports:

The Next Meltdown

100% Probability of Recession in 2008

2. About a week before the Mexican swine flu story broke out I posted this article on a new bird flu coming out of Egypt:

New bird flu cases suggest the danger of pandemic is rising

3. In the Disease category you can see how I’ll been following reports around the world:

Disease

4. Did you know that Mexico is in trouble, even discounting the swine flu outbreak. Check out the articles in the Mexico category:

Mexico

I also clue you in on interesting items that I run across:

1. Which country is handling the global financial crisis the best?

Chile – The Real Latin American Powerhouse

What are some of the stories that I’m tracking now?

• Why was highly enriched uranium found in a lab in Egypt?
• Will the Taliban get access to Pakistan’s nuclear weapons?
• Will the Middle East spiral out of control?
• When will Iran go nuclear? How will this impact the Middle East?
• Will countries go to war over Arctic resources? Russia thinks so.
• Will we re-enter the recession in 2011 when the Bush tax cuts expire?

The Name

You might be wondering about the name for my website – 1913 Intel. Where did that come from?

The concept for the website comes from an article written by historian Niall Ferguson called “Sinking Globalization.” In the article that was written in 2005, he points out that today’s globablization is similiar to that from early 20th century. He wondered if our current globablization could get derailed by something: lack of liquidity, protectionism, war, etc.

So the 1913 refers to the calm period that might appear before the storm.

About Me

I have been running 1913 Intel since August, 2006.

I have a lot of experience analyzing news and foreign affairs.

I am a risk manager by profession. I help a northwest insurance company manage the risk on billions of dollars of assets.

I also write a column for the Society of Actuaries technology section called Cool Tech.

Contact Information