Category Archives: Climate

Where Did ’97 Percent’ Global Warming Consensus Come From? | The Daily Caller

The definition Cook used to get his consensus was weak, the climatologists said. Only 41 out of the 11,944 published climate studies examined by Cook explicitly stated that mankind caused most of the warming since 1950 — meaning the actual consensus is 0.3 percent.

“It is astonishing that any journal could have published a paper claiming a 97% climate consensus when on the authors’ own analysis the true consensus was well below 1%,” said Dr. David Legates, a geology professor at the University of Delaware and the study’s lead author.

Queensland’s legal fight with Schollenberger comes while UK news outlets are reporting that one of the world’s top scientific journals rejected a study from five climate scientists for political reasons.

The UK Times reported that a reviewer with the journal Environmental Research Letters rejected the study because it was “harmful” to the climate cause because it “opens the door for oversimplified claims of ‘errors’ and worse from the climate skeptics media side.”

Where Did ’97 Percent’ Global Warming Consensus Come From? | The Daily Caller

Scientists Label White House Climate Report ‘Pseudoscience’ | The Daily Caller

Climate scientists have said the White House’s National Climate Assessment (NCA) resembles pseudoscience more than actual science.

The National Climate Data Center released its third NCA on Tuesday, which warns of an ever-worsening environment and extreme temperature rises due to man-made carbon dioxide emissions from burning fossil fuels. But it has been panned in some quarters.

Michaels and Knappenberger also pointed out that the measure of climate sensitivity used by the report is 40 percent higher than what more recent scientific literature points to. Climate sensitivity is the measure of how much warming would occur if carbon dioxide levels in the atmosphere were doubled. The current literature puts that number at about 1.5 degrees Celsius, but the government used estimates from the United Nations’ 2007 climate report putting climate sensitivity at 2 degrees Celsius to 3.3 degrees Celsius.

“It is misleading and just plain incorrect to claim that disasters associated with hurricanes, tornadoes, floods or droughts have increased on climate timescales either in the United States or globally,” Pielke said in his testimony before the Senate Environment and Public Works Committee last year. “It is further incorrect to associate the increasing costs of disasters with the emission of greenhouse gases.”
 

Report: 95 percent of global warming models are wrong | The Daily Caller

Environmentalists and Democrats often cite a “97 percent” consensus among climate scientists about global warming. But they never cite estimates that 95 percent of climate models predicting global temperature rises have been wrong.

Former NASA scientist Dr. Roy Spencer says that climate models used by government agencies to create policies “have failed miserably.” Spencer analyzed 90 climate models against surface temperature and satellite temperature data, and found that more than 95 percent of the models “have over-forecast the warming trend since 1979, whether we use their own surface temperature dataset (HadCRUT4), or our satellite dataset of lower tropospheric temperatures (UAH).”

Report: 95 percent of global warming models are wrong | The Daily Caller

As a modeler myself, I know that when you take a model outside of its calibration zone, then you are asking for trouble. Generally, the problem is one of crudely modeling the basic process and using modeling parameters to compensate. This works well within a range, but breaks outside of that range. Any competent modeler would warn about this danger. Apparently, climate modelers have not warned about this problem.

Climate Expert von Storch: Why Is Global Warming Stagnating?

Climate experts have long predicted that temperatures would rise in parallel with greenhouse gas emissions. But, for 15 years, they haven’t. In a SPIEGEL interview, meteorologist Hans von Storch discusses how this “puzzle” might force scientists to alter what could be “fundamentally wrong” models.

SPIEGEL: What could be wrong with the models?

Storch: There are two conceivable explanations — and neither is very pleasant for us. The first possibility is that less global warming is occurring than expected because greenhouse gases, especially CO2, have less of an effect than we have assumed. This wouldn’t mean that there is no man-made greenhouse effect, but simply that our effect on climate events is not as great as we have believed. The other possibility is that, in our simulations, we have underestimated how much the climate fluctuates owing to natural causes.

SPIEGEL: That sounds quite embarrassing for your profession, if you have to go back and adjust your models to fit with reality…

Interview: Hans von Storch on Problems with Climate Change Models – SPIEGEL ONLINE

It sounds to me like the models may have a couple of problems. First, there is a calibration problem. Calibrating a model using data within a certain range, then using the models outside of that range. Second, it appears that climate models use the normal distribution. This assumes things happen independently rather than some kind of feedback loop process. The use of the normal distribution represents a serious problem if it truly is being used.

Melting Ice Opens Fight Over Sea Routes for Arctic Debate – Bloomberg

When 16th and 17th century European explorers sailed west in pursuit of a trade route to Asia, their search for a Northwest Passage was foiled by Arctic ice.

Five hundred years later, melting icecaps have set off a global race to control new shipping lanes over the North Pole. Just as the discoveries of Ferdinand Magellan and Vasco de Gama gave seafaring Portugal routes around Cape Horn and the Cape of Good Hope, the opening of the Arctic, with its shortcut from the Atlantic to northeast Asia and its untapped oil reserves, can redraw the geopolitical map and create new power brokers.

Melting Ice Opens Fight Over Sea Routes for Arctic Debate – Bloomberg

Climate scientists struggle to explain warming slowdown | Reuters

Scientists are struggling to explain a slowdown in climate change that has exposed gaps in their understanding and defies a rise in global greenhouse gas emissions.

Often focused on century-long trends, most climate models failed to predict that the temperature rise would slow, starting around 2000. Scientists are now intent on figuring out the causes and determining whether the respite will be brief or a more lasting phenomenon.

Climate scientists struggle to explain warming slowdown | Reuters

So there are modeling problems. As I said a couple of years ago, when you calibrate a model based on data within a certain range, and then go outside of that range, then your model might not work correctly. When I heard scientists confidently explain how good their climate models were, I knew we were in for trouble. Because a real scientist would understand that moving into new territory is always dangerous.

China Demands U.S. Taxpayers Clean Up Its Air – Forbes

Now Beijing wants even more dough.  The Doha conference produced one advance for climate activists by establishing the principle that developed nations have a responsibility for compensating poorer ones for damage due to climate change.  The rich had previously agreed to provide assistance for clean energy and other purposes but had not acknowledged an obligation for fixing the changing climate.

That changed in Doha.  “It is a breakthrough,” said Martin Khor of the South Centre, an organization of 52 developing states, to the BBC.  “The term Loss and Damage is in the text—this is a huge step in principle.  Next comes the fight for cash.”

China Demands U.S. Taxpayers Clean Up Its Air – Forbes

Global Warming: The Greatest Threat To Arab Economies? | Economy Watch

The World Bank has produced a massive 450 page report on the potentially devastating impact climate change is likely to have on Arab countries. This matters to everyone and not just from the standpoint that we should all empathize with and seek to relief suffering.

The harsher the conditions get, the more restive and radical the populations of Arab states are likely to become, with hugely destabilizing consequences for all of us.

Global Warming: The Greatest Threat To Arab Economies? | Economy Watch

Climate change seen as factor in Mayan collapse in Central America – UPI.com

Unusually high rainfall allowed a population boom between 440 and 660 A.D., but subsequent dry conditions between 660 and 1000 A.D. aligns with known periods of political instability in the Mayan civilization, Kennett theorizes.

The dry climate conditions, which may have included extended periods of drought, may have hastened the Maya collapse, the researchers say.

Climate change seen as factor in Mayan collapse in Central America – UPI.com

Climate Change Threat To National Security – Science News – redOrbit

Food shortages, natural disasters, energy supply issues and the spread of epidemics are some of the possible climate-related perils the U.S. military needs to prepare to deal with, the National Academies claim in a new report released Friday.

Broder says the report warns of “clusters of apparently unrelated events exacerbated by a warming climate will create more frequent but unpredictable crises in water supplies, food markets, energy supply chains and public health systems… Climate-driven crises could lead to internal instability or international conflict and might force the United States to provide humanitarian assistance or, in some cases, military force to protect vital energy, economic or other interests.”

Climate Change Threat To National Security – Science News – redOrbit