It might take years or even decades, but the cracks are already starting to show
“And without prosperity, the only remaining basis of legitimacy is nationalism.”
There is something very wrong in China at the moment. China, I believe, has just passed an inflection point. Until recently, everything was going its way. Now, however, it seems all its problems are catching up with the Chinese state at the same time.
“… it is not success in the next election that keeps Chinese leaders awake at night but anxieties about social unrest that could potentially bring down the communist regime.”
The United States is supposed to be the world’s superpower not because it is dominating the entire world, but because of its complete domination of the [...]
‘The risk of some local turf dispute exploding into a great power collision will remain alarmingly real.’
The Pacific rim is ever more densely strewn with the toys of war. The risk of some local turf dispute exploding into a great power collision will remain alarmingly real.
Indeed, there is a profound fear in [...]
We’re going to need a great of luck to avoid a nuclear catastrophe – and this can be traced back to the First World War and the death of Frederick III in 1888
As we look forward to the First World War commemorations, three stark conclusions are hard to refute. First, that in the course [...]
Here’s a long, must-read essay by Oxford historian Margaret MacMillan, who looks at the world of 1914 — the start of the Great War — in comparison to our own time. It’s annoyingly formatted, but well worth your time. Excerpts:
Though the era just before World War I, with its gas lighting and [...]
‘At Cambridge’s Centre for Risk Studies we model hypothetical chains of events that lead to global economic catastrophe, and a conflict over the barren rocks of the Senkaku Islands (or the Diaoyu Islands as the Chinese call them) closely fits one of our scenarios.’
When China recently declared a new “air defence identification zone” covering [...]
In discussing the Senkaku Islands conflict, this article suggests that the risk of World War III is high enough to be worried.
The clash between China and Japan over five small islets in the East China Sea has gone into hyper drive over the last month with China’s declaration of a new Air Defense Identification [...]
´His indicators now signal the demise of American society.´
´… there is a chance for a catastrophic failure of some kind, …´
Peter Turchin is the vice president of the Evolution Institute and professor of biology and anthropology at the University of Connecticut. He has written the book War and Peace and [...]
“Watch out; it’s going to blow.”
A secret document leaked to Le Figaro newspaper explains why President François Hollande caves in to the slightest sign of street protest.
“Throughout [French] territory . . . society is in the grip of tension, exasperation and anger,” says the ministry of the interior’s monthly summary of reports from [...]