In this case study, Copeland makes a convincing case that it was the power transition between Germany and Russia–not Germany and Great Britain–that was the real cause of the war. Specifically, he shows that German leaders had long feared that Russia’s greater land mass, resources and population made it a long-term threat to Germany’s survival. [...]
´Perhaps the tipping point has already been reached. If so, all we policy analysts and policymakers are doing now is akin to “rearranging the deck chairs on the Titanic.”´
Many analysts in both the U.S. and China have warned of a “tipping point” in China-U.S. relations beyond which the two conclude that conflict is unavoidable [...]
“Throughout history, those power transitions have almost invariably resulted in war — and the US-China relationship is in just such a transition.”
… Or to put it another way, clear patterns recur when two rival nations are locked in a cycle of rise and decline.
Throughout history, those power transitions have almost invariably resulted in [...]
As the World War I centennial is celebrated, repressed thoughts of great power war once again begin to surface. With today’s highly “interconnected global economy” underwritten by a liberal order leading to the “rise of the rest,” it appears unlikely that any state would want to [...]
As Ukraine battles separatists and Russia appears poised to invade, many historians and scholars are warning of ominous similarities to the outbreak of World War I in 1914. But they are ignoring a more important comparison: 1941.
“We should be aware that no society is invulnerable and that every society in the history of the world has ultimately collapsed.”
Consider this, if you would: a network of far-flung, powerful, high-tech civilizations closely tied by trade and diplomatic embassies; an accelerating threat of climate change and its pressure on food production; a rising [...]
As tensions spike between China and other countries in Asia’s disputed waters, serving and retired Chinese military officers as well as state media are questioning whether China’s armed forces are too corrupt to fight and win a war.
A slew of articles in official media in recent months have drawn parallels with the rampant graft [...]
´… the Russian leadership now “sees the U.S. goal as being not so much stopping the Russian support for the Donbas rebels, or even getting Moscow to withdraw from Crimea, but as the toppling of the Putin regime by means of economic pain and popular discontent wrought by the sanctions,”´
History in its perversity often—actually, [...]
The MH-17 tragedy and Moscow’s behaviour in Ukraine underscore the risks of the strategies revisionist powers are deploying to subvert the status quo from Eastern Europe to the South China Sea. While these strategies are diverse in their methods and objectives, they are marked by the same central assumption: so long as the stakes are [...]
In terms of the military balance between East and West, none of this matters a whit. But in terms of what it says about how the Russians (and not just President Vladimir Putin) view a future war in Europe, it’s deeply troubling.
To understand all this, we have to go back to the [...]