First it was the 2007 financial crisis. Then it became the 2008 financial crisis. Next it was the downturn of 2008-2009. Finally, in mid-2009, it was dubbed the “Great Recession.” And, with the business cycle’s shift onto an upward trajectory in late 2009, the world breathed a collective a sigh of relief. We would [...]
“This has powerful implications. Many of these people are retrenching pre-emptively, en masse, in most of the mature industrial economies.”
Christopher Sims – a monetary expert, who now thinks money indicators have been rendered “essentially obsolete” by modern finance – says it may be impossible to reverse deflation in the Western economies by any normal [...]
As I was arguing last week, it’s time to call the eurozone what it really is: one of the biggest catastrophes in economic history.
There have been plenty of those lately. And it’s not just the Great Recession. It’s the way we’ve struggled to make up the ground we lost since. The United States, [...]
As Ukraine battles separatists and Russia appears poised to invade, many historians and scholars are warning of ominous similarities to the outbreak of World War I in 1914. But they are ignoring a more important comparison: 1941.
There are countless methods of predicting what will happen next in the stock market. Technical traders have their charts, quant funds use specialized algorithms, and psychics have crystal balls. Many of their methods have failed quite spectacularly in the past, especially in the 2008 financial crisis.
With that in mind, researchers have turned to other [...]
Portugal has crashed into deep deflation and Italy’s inflation rate has fallen to zero as the eurozone flirts with recession, automatically pushing these countries further towards a debt compound spiral.
The slide comes amid signs of a deepening slowdown in the eurozone core, with even Germany flirting with possible recession. Germany’s ZEW index of investor [...]
US President Barack Obama has announced new economic sanctions against Russia, saying they will make Russia’s “weak economy even weaker”.
He said the co-ordinated actions of the US and European Union would “have an even bigger bite” on Russia’s economy.
The new restrictions include banning Americans or people in the US from banking [...]
Russia and the West appear to be moving ever closer to full economic warfare as U.S. and EU leaders prepare new and harsher sanctions on the Russian economy and Russian lawmakers discuss legislation that would give authorities in Moscow the ability to eject companies from Russia if they are headquartered in “aggressor nations” – defined [...]
‘Lienhard foreshadows that “[they] see these developments in the Ukraine not as an outlier, but as a preview of larger trends ahead for Europe.”‘
Looking at the chart above, you can see that there were socio-political crises in Russia following drops in the U.S. stock market — meaning that stocks are a leading indicator of [...]
Yet a Chinese crash might make 2008 look like a garden party. As the risks of one increase, it’s worth exploring how it might look. After all, China is now the world’s biggest trading nation, the second-biggest economy and holder of some $4 trillion of foreign-currency reserves. If China does experience a true credit crisis, [...]