Category Archives: general

Paris and the fall of Rome – The Boston Globe

… I am, instead, going to tell you that this [Paris terrorism on Friday night] is exactly how civilizations fall.

Here is how Edward Gibbon described the Goths’ sack of Rome in August 410 AD:

“In the hour of savage license, when every passion was inflamed, and every restraint was removed . . . a cruel slaughter was made of the Romans; and . . . the streets of the city were filled with dead bodies . . . Whenever the Barbarians were provoked by opposition, they extended the promiscuous massacre to the feeble, the innocent, and the helpless . . .”

Now, does that not describe the scenes we witnessed in Paris on Friday night?

True, Gibbon’s “History of the Decline and Fall of the Roman Empire’’ represented Rome’s demise as a slow burn over a millennium. But a new generation of historians, such as Bryan Ward-Perkins and Peter Heather, has raised the possibility that the process of Roman decline was in fact sudden — and bloody —rather than smooth: a “violent seizure . . . by barbarian invaders” that destroyed a complex civilization within the span of a single generation.

Uncannily similar processes are destroying the European Union today, though few of us want to recognize them for what they are.

Let us be clear about what is happening. Like the Roman Empire in the early fifth century, Europe has allowed its defenses to crumble. As its wealth has grown, so its military prowess has shrunk, along with its self-belief. It has grown decadent in its shopping malls and sports stadiums. At the same time, it has opened its gates to outsiders who have coveted its wealth without renouncing their ancestral faith.

I do know that 21st-century Europe has only itself to blame for the mess it is now in. For surely nowhere in the world has devoted more resources to the study of history than modern Europe. When I went up to Oxford more than 30 years ago, it was taken for granted that in the first term of my first year I would study Gibbon. It did no good. We learned nothing that mattered. Indeed, we learned a lot of nonsense to the effect that nationalism was a bad thing, nation-states worse, and empires the worst things of all.“Romans before the fall,” wrote Ward-Perkins in his “Fall of Rome,” “were as certain as we are today that their world would continue for ever substantially unchanged. They were wrong. We would be wise not to repeat their complacency.”

Paris and the fall of Rome – The Boston Globe

Here is what people believe:

Stability+ = Stability + Time

The longer there is stability then the longer that very stability will continue. This implies stability will last forever.

Here is reality:

Crash = Stability + Time

The longer there is stability then the closer one gets to crash. The Fall of Rome: And the End of Civilization (9780192807281): Bryan Ward-Perkins: Books

Was the fall of Rome a great catastrophe that cast the West into darkness for centuries to come? Or, as scholars argue today, was there no crisis at all, but simply a peaceful blending of barbarians into Roman culture, an essentially positive transformation?

In The Fall of Rome, eminent historian Bryan Ward-Perkins argues that the “peaceful” theory of Rome’s “transformation” is badly in error. Indeed, he sees the fall of Rome as a time of horror and dislocation that destroyed a great civilization, throwing the inhabitants of the West back to a standard of living typical of prehistoric times. Attacking contemporary theories with relish and making use of modern archaeological evidence, he looks at both the wider explanations for the disintegration of the Roman world and also the consequences for the lives of everyday Romans, who were caught in a world of marauding barbarians, and economic collapse. The book recaptures the drama and violence of the last days of the Roman world, and reminds us of the very real terrors of barbarian occupation. Equally important, Ward-Perkins contends that a key problem with the new way of looking at the end of the ancient world is that all difficulty and awkwardness is smoothed out into a steady and positive transformation of society. Nothing ever goes badly wrong in this vision of the past. The evidence shows otherwise.

Up-to-date and brilliantly written, combining a lively narrative with the latest research and thirty illustrations, this superb volume reclaims the drama, the violence, and the tragedy of the fall of Rome. The Fall of Rome: And the End of Civilization (9780192807281): Bryan Ward-Perkins: Books The Fall of the Roman Empire: A New History of Rome and the Barbarians (9780195325416): Peter Heather: Books

The death of the Roman Empire is one of the perennial mysteries of world history. Now, in this groundbreaking book, Peter Heather proposes a stunning new solution: Centuries of imperialism turned the neighbors Rome called barbarians into an enemy capable of dismantling an Empire that had dominated their lives for so long.
A leading authority on the late Roman Empire and on the barbarians, Heather relates the extraordinary story of how Europe’s barbarians, transformed by centuries of contact with Rome on every possible level, eventually pulled the empire apart. He shows first how the Huns overturned the existing strategic balance of power on Rome’s European frontiers, to force the Goths and others to seek refuge inside the Empire. This prompted two generations of struggle, during which new barbarian coalitions, formed in response to Roman hostility, brought the Roman west to its knees. The Goths first destroyed a Roman army at the battle of Hadrianople in 378, and went on to sack Rome in 410. The Vandals spread devastation in Gaul and Spain, before conquering North Africa, the breadbasket of the Western Empire, in 439. We then meet Attila the Hun, whose reign of terror swept from Constantinople to Paris, but whose death in 453 ironically precipitated a final desperate phase of Roman collapse, culminating in the Vandals’ defeat of the massive Byzantine Armada: the west’s last chance for survival.

Peter Heather convincingly argues that the Roman Empire was not on the brink of social or moral collapse. What brought it to an end were the barbarians. The Fall of the Roman Empire: A New History of Rome and the Barbarians (9780195325416): Peter Heather: Books

Pope Francis: World War III has begun – Third Secret of Fatima gives warning

In condemning the Nov. 13, Paris attacks, Pope Francis referred to them as a “piecemeal World War III.” In essence, the Holy Father is explaining that World War III has begun, at least in a piecemeal fashion. The level of violence around the world is rising rapidly, fueled chiefly by militant Islamists.

The Third Secret of Fatima could provide some direction at a moment of crisis such as this. In the Third Secret, Sister Lucia wrote:

.the Holy Father passed through a big city half in ruins and half trembling with halting step, afflicted with pain and sorrow, he prayed for the souls of the corpses he met on his way; having reached the top of the mountain, on his knees at the foot of the big Cross he was killed by a group of soldiers who fired bullets and arrows at him, and in the same way there died one after another the other Bishops, Priests, men and women Religious, and various lay people of different ranks and positions.

Pope Francis: World War III has begun – Third Secret of Fatima gives warning – Living Faith – Home & Family – News – Catholic Online

Three Secrets of Fátima

The text of the Third Secret, according to the Vatican, was published on 26 June 2000:


The third part of the secret revealed at the Cova da Iria-Fátima, on 13 July 1917.

I write in obedience to you, my God, who command me to do so through his Excellency the Bishop of Leiria and through your Most Holy Mother and mine.

After the two parts which I have already explained, at the left of Our Lady and a little above, we saw an Angel with a flaming sword in his left hand; flashing, it gave out flames that looked as though they would set the world on fire; but they died out in contact with the splendour that Our Lady radiated towards him from her right hand: pointing to the earth with his right hand, the Angel cried out in a loud voice: ‘Penance, Penance, Penance!’. And we saw in an immense light that is God: ‘something similar to how people appear in a mirror when they pass in front of it’ a Bishop dressed in White ‘we had the impression that it was the Holy Father’. Other Bishops, Priests, men and women Religious going up a steep mountain, at the top of which there was a big Cross of rough-hewn trunks as of a cork-tree with the bark; before reaching there the Holy Father passed through a big city half in ruins and half trembling with halting step, afflicted with pain and sorrow, he prayed for the souls of the corpses he met on his way; having reached the top of the mountain, on his knees at the foot of the big Cross he was killed by a group of soldiers who fired bullets and arrows at him, and in the same way there died one after another the other Bishops, Priests, men and women Religious, and various lay people of different ranks and positions. Beneath the two arms of the Cross there were two Angels each with a crystal aspersorium in his hand, in which they gathered up the blood of the Martyrs and with it sprinkled the souls that were making their way to God.


Along with the text of the secret, Joseph Cardinal Ratzinger, (the future Pope Benedict XVI), published a theological commentary, in which he states:”A careful reading of the text of the so-called third ‘secret’ of Fatima … will probably prove disappointing or surprising after all the speculation it has stirred. No great mystery is revealed; nor is the future unveiled.” After explaining the differences between public and private revelations, he cautions people not to see in the message a determined future event:

The purpose of the vision is not to show a film of an irrevocably fixed future. Its meaning is exactly the opposite: it is meant to mobilize the forces of change in the right direction. Therefore we must totally discount fatalistic explanations of the “secret”, such as, for example, the claim that the would-be assassin of 13 May 1981 was merely an instrument of the divine plan guided by Providence and could not therefore have acted freely, or other similar ideas in circulation. Rather, the vision speaks of dangers and how we might be saved from them.

He then moves on to talk about the symbolic nature of the images, noting: “The concluding part of the ‘secret’ uses images which Lucia may have seen in devotional books and which draw their inspiration from long-standing intuitions of faith.” As for the meaning of the message: “What remains was already evident when we began our reflections on the text of the ‘secret': the exhortation to prayer as the path of ‘salvation for souls’ and, likewise, the summons to penance and conversion.”

Three Secrets of Fátima – Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia

ISIS’s First Step: Conquer Rome, Defeat Christianity

ISIS does not have the capability of conquering Rome. So their threats are not really serious. However, after 2025 Iran could have that capability with nuclear weapons.

Iran in End of Days Prophecy | 1913 Intel

Let us look at the destruction of Rome:

But here’s where it gets interesting. Very interesting. All this has been mapped out over 1500 years ago in the following Jewish scriptural sources:

Yoma 10a in the Talmud – “Rabbi Yochanan said in the name of Rabbi Yehuda in the name of Rabbi Ilayi: In the time to come, Rome will fall at the hands of Persia.”

Well, how is that going to happen?

Iran in End of Days Prophecy | 1913 Intel

What If Iran Had Had Nukes? | National Review Online

Hamas cleric Yunis Al-Astal elaborated in a 2008 sermon:

Very soon, Allah willing, Rome will be conquered, just like Constantinople was, as was prophesized by our Prophet Muhammad. Today, Rome is the capital of the Catholics, or the Crusader capital, which has declared its hostility to Islam, and has planted the brothers of apes and pigs in Palestine in order to prevent the reawakening of Islam — this capital of theirs will be an advanced post for the Islamic conquests, which will spread through Europe in its entirety, and then will turn to the two Americas, and even Eastern Europe.

What If Iran Had Had Nukes? | National Review Online

Thanks to help from North Korea (and other countries), Iran can position itself to rapidly advance toward a full nuclear capability and the means to deliver them after 2025 (the end of the nuclear deal.) One day between 2025 and 2030, we will wake up to a nuclear Iran with a substantial nuclear arsenal and the missiles to deliver them. And Iranian leaders will be thinking about Rome, Europe, America and the West. Using ISIS as cover, what could stop the two from delivering a nuclear bomb to Rome via ship and a short truck ride?

North Korea: Iran’s Pathway to a Nuclear Weapon | The National Interest

As long ago as 1985, the two countries had already launched cooperative missile development, with Iran helping to underwrite North Korea’s production of 300-kilometer-range Scud-B missiles. Their interaction expanded in the 1990s, when Iran and North Korea began joint development of Iran’s Shahab medium-range missile, which is closely based on North Korea’s own nuclear-capable No Dong.

The Islamic Republic has also relied on the DPRK for help with its nuclear program. In recent years, North Korea is known to have assisted in fortifying a number of Iranian nuclear facilities against possible preemptive strikes. It has also reportedly dispatched hundreds of nuclear experts to work within the Islamic Republic, as well as providing Tehran with key nuclear software.

North Korea: Iran’s Pathway to a Nuclear Weapon | The National Interest

Bill Whittle: How to Stop the Civilizational Collapse | Frontpage Mag

But just before we get started on the plan, let’s talk a little bit about the case.  There is no question that the wheels are coming off of Western civilization.  And the problem is that the wheels have come off of every civilization, and they’ve come off of every civilization in exactly the same way throughout history, starting with the Babylonians, the Assyrians, the Egyptians, the Greeks, the Romans.  Same pattern every time, every time we see it.  And I didn’t understand it until very recently.

But just to make the case — when you flood the country with illegal immigrants who bring a great deal of crime, a great deal of social disruption — we have to carry them on the social roles that are already overstuffed due to the Cloward-Piven strategy that I know so many of you know about.  And when we do all of this just in exchange for votes for one party, we’re now talking about a criminal enterprise that would rather rule over the ruins than be part of governing a successful and happy republic.  That’s just true.

If you look at the European invasion, this latest invasion of Muslim immigrants that are coming up, so-called families of people trying to seek, you know, asylum, when 98 percent of them are military-age men who are screaming about jihad, and you put 750 Muslim refugees in a German village that holds just 105 people. One hundrend and five people in a village in Germany have been forced to accept 750 Syrian refugees, and people in Bavaria are talking civil war in Germany.  That’s happening this week. That’s happening today.

Bill Whittle: How to Stop the Civilizational Collapse | Frontpage Mag

Cloward–Piven strategy

The Cloward–Piven strategy is a political strategy outlined in 1966 by American sociologists and political activists Richard Cloward and Frances Fox Piven that called for overloading the U.S. public welfare system in order to precipitate a crisis that would lead to a replacement of the welfare system with a national system of “a guaranteed annual income and thus an end to poverty”.

Cloward–Piven strategy – Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia

Angela Merkel’s ‘open door refugee policy will lead to civil war’ as Pegida marches | Daily Mail Online

A German official has said that Angela Merkel’s open door migrant policy will lead to ‘civil war’ after thousands marched through one city’s streets holding crucifixes during an anti-Islam protest.

Hansjoerg Mueller, of the Alternative for Germany party, said the country was ‘sliding towards anarchy’ and risks becoming a ‘banana republic without any government’.

He made the claims after about 8,000 people joined the anti-Islam Pegida movement for a rally in Dresden over Angela Merkel’s decision to allow up to one million migrants into the country this year.

Angela Merkel’s ‘open door refugee policy will lead to civil war’ as Pegida marches | Daily Mail Online

r/K Selection Theory

To my eye, it is inherently clear that this r/K divergence is the origin of our political divide. Indeed, while policy proposals from Conservatives are predicated upon the premise that resources are inherently limited, and individuals should have to work and demonstrate merit to acquire them, Liberals advocate on behalf of policy proposals which seem to be predicated upon an assumption that there are always more than sufficient resources to let everyone live lives of equal leisure. To a Liberal, any scarcity must clearly arise due to some individual’s personal greed and evil altering a natural state of perpetual plenty.

Here, we see how these two deeply imbued psychologies generate grossly different perceptual frameworks within those who are imbued with them. Just as a Liberal will never grasp why a Conservative will look down upon frequent promiscuity and single parenting, the Conservative will never grasp why the Liberal will be so firmly opposed to free market Capitalism, or the right to self defense when threatened. Each sees an inherently different world, and is programmed to desire an inherently different environment.

r/K Selection Theory |

What is Utopia to the modern liberal?

“This Lennon does to urge his fellow men and women to unite in creating a world fit to live upon, one without countries, war, religion, or private property.

Many members of the World Socialist Movement have considered John Lennon’s song Imagine an anthem of universal hope. In few other songs, and perhaps in no song that reached as wide an audience as that one, is the socialist vision so accurately and movingly conveyed. It was originally featured on the 1971 album “Imagine,” and made the top of the charts in England no less than 3 times (its first release as a single, 1975; in 1981 following Lennon’s death in 1980 (when it shot up to number 1 for several weeks); and again during the Christmas season in 1999, after it had been voted the nation’s favorite song lyric and second favorite all-time song in a large best-music-of-the-millennium poll.

Imagine is a humanistic song par excellence, denying humans the place they often accord themselves in the spiritual universe, and instead relegating them to their material and exquisitely beautiful home of Earth. This Lennon does to urge his fellow men and women to unite in creating a world fit to live upon, one without countries, war, religion, or private property. Sharing this world together as a true “brotherhood of man,” some in the World Socialist Movement have wondered if he wrote this song after reading a copy of the Socialist Standard, which is not impossible considering his extensive reading of radical journals following the demise of the Beatles, although it is not known if he actually read the Standard, a journal that has also been advocating a nationless, classless, moneyless society of common ownership since 1904.

What he left behind was the utopian imagination we all share that still exists in a million brains refusing to be silenced.

“Imagine,” the song, was unquestionably Lennon’s finest moment. Its lyrical and conceptual clarity shone sunlight of vision upon our dark and violent world. It urged us to imagine a world without property, without religion, without nations, living in peace. It postulated an economic order in which both greed and hunger would be impossible. Socialists also share this vision. They support the cause that approaches humanity towards the goal of a classless economic order in which wage labor, money and buying and selling have been replaced by free people working together to meet their needs without the constraints imposed by the market system, in short a world of peace, equality, abundance and ecological sustainability. You may think that we are dreamers, but we are not the only ones. I hope some day you’ll join us. And the world will live as one.

‘Imagine’ by John Lennon | The Socialist Party of Great Britain

Let’s not forget about the “nuclear Utopians.”

Keith Payne: the ‘Nuclear Utopians’ Are Wrong – WSJ | 1913 Intel

Nuclear utopians and realists also perceive international relations differently. Utopians see an orderly system that functions predictably and increasingly amicably. Based on this perception they make two confident predictions.

The first is that U.S. deterrence will work reliably even with a relatively small nuclear arsenal, or even nuclear zero. In 2010 the authors of an essay in Foreign Affairs predicted confidently that a U.S. capability to retaliate “against only ten cities” would be adequate to deter Russia.

A second prediction is that differences between the U.S. and Russia or China will be resolved without regard to nuclear threats or capabilities. The 2012 report by the Global Zero Commission claimed that, “The risk of nuclear confrontation between the United States and either Russia or China belongs to the past, not the future.”

Keith Payne: the ‘Nuclear Utopians’ Are Wrong – WSJ | 1913 Intel

“Just-World Theory”: Believing that life is fair makes you a terrible person

These are among numerous unsettling implications of the “just-world hypothesis”, a psychological bias explored in a new essay by Nicholas Hune-Brown at Hazlitt. The world, obviously, is a manifestly unjust place: people are always meeting fates they didn’t deserve, or not receiving rewards they did deserve for hard work or virtuous behaviour. Yet several decades of research have established that our need to believe otherwise runs deep. Faced with evidence of injustice, we’ll certainly try to alleviate it if we can – but, if we feel powerless to make things right, we’ll do the next best thing, psychologically speaking: we’ll convince ourselves that the world isn’t so unjust after all.

Hence the finding, in a 2009 study, that Holocaust memorials can increase antisemitism. Confronted with an atrocity they otherwise can’t explain, people become slightly more likely, on average, to believe that the victims must have brought it on themselves.

What’s truly unsettling about the just-world bias is that while it can have truly unpleasant effects, these follow from what seems like the entirely understandable urge to believe that things happen for a reason. After all, if we didn’t all believe that to some degree, life would be an intolerably chaotic and terrifying nightmare in, which effort and payback were utterly unrelated, and there was no point planning for the future, saving money for retirement or doing anything else in hope of eventual reward. We’d go mad. Surely wanting the world to make a bit more sense than that is eminently forgivable?

Yet, ironically, this desire to believe that things happen for a reason leads to the kinds of positions that help entrench injustice instead of reducing it.

Hune-Brown cites another recent bit of evidence for the phenomenon: people with a strong belief in a just world, he reports, are more likely to oppose affirmative action schemes intended to help women or minorities. You needn’t be explicitly racist or sexist to hold such views, nor committed to a highly individualistic political position (such as libertarianism); the researchers controlled for those. You need only cling to a conviction that the world is basically fair. That might be a pretty naive position, of course – but it’s hard to argue that it’s a hateful one. Similar associations have been found between belief in a just world and a preference for authoritarian political leaders. To shield ourselves psychologically from the terrifying thought that the world is full of innocent people suffering, we endorse politicians and policies more likely to make that suffering worse.

Believing that life is fair makes you a terrible person | Oliver Burkeman | Comment is free | The Guardian

In a general sense, life is fair in that people get what they deserve. It’s like somebody crossing the street without looking. Did they deserve to die? Of course not, but if they were in the habit of not looking before crossing then sooner or later something was going to happen.

What about the Holocaust?

Clearly, the Jews did not deserve the Holocaust. However, the Jews were like the person who crosses the street without looking. Things happen, and one must pay attention. Being clueless about the world around you can lead to terrible things.

But why were the Jews even a target at all?

Why Jews Were Hated in Pre-War and Post-War Eastern European Countries | Esor Ben-Sorek | The Blogs | The Times of Israel

Towards the end of the First World War in 1917, revolutionary waves began sweeping across Eastern European countries. Moderate socialism gave rise to the Bolshevik party in pre-Soviet Russia. At the time of the February Revolution in 1917, of the 23,000 members of the Bolshevik (Communist) party, 364 of the leaders were Jews. Some of them came from religious Jewish homes who saw Communism as a salvation from Russian anti-Semitism and pogroms, a new birth of equality of Jews in the new Soviet Union.

Among the most prominent Soviet Communist Jewish leaders were Grigory Zinoviev, Moishe Uritsky, Lev Kamenev, Yakov Sverdlov, Gregory Sokolnikov and Leon Trotsky. The head of the dreaded NKVD secret police was a Jew. Records from the Soviet Union revealed that in the 1920’s, 75% of the leading Communists were Jews.

Going to Poland, Jews had been active members in revolutionary circles since the beginning of the First World War. Historians have written that 65% of communist party members in pre-war Poland were Jews. 60% of the Warsaw communist party were Jews, led by Jacob Berman, Hilary Minc, Juliusz Katz-Suchy and Wladyslaw Krajewski. In the 1920’s the Catholic Cardinal of Poland, a virulent anti-Semite, Augustus Hlond, blamed the poor economic situation in Poland on the Bolshevik Jews and urged Poles to boycott Jewish owned shops and businesses. Pogroms and anti-Jewish demonstrations continued under the fascist regime in Poland until the outbreak of the German occupation in September 1939.

To the south, the democratic Republic of Czecholslovakia had an active communist party led by two Jews, Rudolf Slansky and Karel Hoffman.

Hungary’s communist party was led by two Jews, Bela Kun and Matyas Roth (Rakosi).

And saddest of all was the leader of the Communist Party in Rumania. Ana Pauker served as Rumania’s Foreign Minister and with her husband Marcel Pauker, she ruled with an iron fist. Ana Pauker was born Hannah Rabinsohn, daughter of an Orthodox rabbi, Tzvi Hersh Rabinsohn and his wife, Sarah Hoffman.

Although educated in traditional Jewish religion, Ana Pauker disassociated herself from Jews and Judaism and turned Rumania into a strong Communist dominated country.

During the war, most of the Jewish communist leaders of eastern Europe sought sanctuary in the Soviet Union and returned to their respective countries at war’s end to strengthen the rule of local communist parties.

Non-communists, particulary Catholics, blamed the destruction of their society and economic system on the communist rule and in particular on the Jewish leaders of the communist parties. Bitter hatreds ensued against innocent local Jewish communities and individuals. Life was made extremely difficult for Jews.

Why Jews Were Hated in Pre-War and Post-War Eastern European Countries | Esor Ben-Sorek | The Blogs | The Times of Israel

There you go. It was the push toward equality (communism) that created lots of problems for people. Dominating many positions of influence and gradually helping to push entire countries in a different direction. Certainly not worthy of a holocaust but worthy of making ones’ group a target of anger. Influence and behavior seemed to get the Jews in trouble in Egypt (pre-slavery) too.

If you are in the habit of making yourself a target, and also in the habit of being clueless about the world around you, then at some point terrible things are going to happen to you.

The modern liberal believes in a different kind of fair. The kind of fair where all outcomes are roughly equal. If you ended up getting the short end of the stick then it’s not your fault. It’s the fault of the guy who got the long end of the stick – the person who got ahead in life. Therefore, the modern liberal seeks to punish the successful and reward the failed.

So we see that the modern liberal does not like the “just-world theory.”

How the internet changes older Chinese people’s worldview – Tech Insider

Books, TV, and friendly chitchat — those make the world seem rosy. The internet, on the other hand, makes everything look awful.

Those are the impressions of thousands of retirees in China over the age of 50, according to one 2013 study that sought to measure people’s belief in the “just world theory,” which posits that people get what they deserve, both good and bad.

How the internet changes older Chinese people’s worldview – Tech Insider

Find more on modern liberalism here.

It looks like the ‘Obama Doctrine’ is failing – Business Insider

In Syria, U.S.-trained rebels surrender supplies and ammunition to al Qaeda-linked insurgents. In Iraq, the battle by American-backed government forces against Islamic State is at a stalemate. In Afghanistan, the Taliban seize a provincial capital for the first time since their ouster in 2001.

Less than a year and a half after President Barack Obama used a West Point speech to lay out a strategy for relying on local partners instead of large-scale U.S. military deployments abroad, there is mounting evidence that the so-called “Obama Doctrine” may be failing.

It looks like the ‘Obama Doctrine’ is failing – Business Insider

A new world of disorder | The Australian – via Google Search

His lectures are framed around the transformation of the global system, captured in the first lecture title: Present at the Destruction. Invoking the spectre of the Old Testament, Fullilove issues a warning: the danger that we are witnessing the destruction of the post-World War II international order that has defined the setting for Australia’s success and prosperity over the past 70 years.

These lectures are about “big picture” trends and epic challenges. “We are at one of those turning points of history,” Fullilove says. “It is hard to say what comes next. All you can say is that the principles, the states and the powers that supported the liberal international order are waning. That order is becoming less liberal, less international and less orderly. We don’t know yet that it is finished. There is a risk that it is finished. But it is certainly fraying.

A new world of disorder | The Australian – via Google Search

The driving forces behind the change in world order are China, Russia and Iran. Now with those three countries driving things, do you really think the outcome is going to be good?

Video: How Likely Is a Physical Conflict in the South China Sea? – Bloomberg Business

Robert Kaplan, Center for a New American Security senior fellow, discusses Xi Jinping’s first state visit to the White House and the future of U.S. relations with China. He speaks with Bloomberg’s Shery Ahn on “Trending Business.” (Source: Bloomberg)

How Likely Is a Physical Conflict in the South China Sea? – Bloomberg Business

Robert Kaplan says the probability of a physical conflict is low. This is really what a lot of experts are saying. They are saying that because they are looking into the future and estimating what might happen. However, that is a really bad way to predict the future based forecasting competitions. Looking at how thousands of people make forecasts shows that the best forecasters look at the past instead of the future. What has happened during similar circumstances in the past? The reason looking at the past is better is because you don’t know everything. Your lack of knowledge makes looking into the future very difficult.

A problem estimating a physical conflict with China is that this type of conflict strongly suggests a rapid escalation into a full-blown nuclear war. And a full-blown nuclear war means the end of the world. Well, at least that is what a lot of people think. And if the world is going to end then no one would ever launch a major nuclear war. So a conflict can’t happen.

But what happens if Xi Jinping doesn’t believe a nuclear war is the end of the world? Doesn’t he get a vote? Do you know what he is thinking? No, you don’t You lack information and so do the experts. This lack of information makes understanding the future difficult. And that is why looking at the past is so much easier.

What does the past tell us about war?

Probability of World War III: 75% or more | 1913 Intel

In history the probability of war is high when a powerful rival approaches or passes a hegemonic leader. Depending on how you count one gets the following probabilities: 10/13 (77%), 11/15 (73%) or 6/7 (86%). With China approaching the US today, the real probability of war is higher. That’s because historical results are heavily weighted by the US passing Britain without a war. Two democracies with similar cultures passing without a war. That doesn’t exactly describe the US-China situation. Also, one could argue that the rivalry between the US and Soviet Union (Russia) continues today. That means we don’t know the true outcome.

Probability of World War III: 75% or more | 1913 Intel

At a minimum we are looking at about a 75% probability of war. The real answer is probably a lot higher. I think it is north of 90%. And that is just with China. Note that 75% or 90% applies to war happening at any time – 1yr, 5yrs, 10yrs or more from now. That’s not exactly helpful for timing purposes, but it at least gives us some idea of what to expect in the future.

Obviously, I am at odds with the experts because I focus more on the past than on the future. Also, I do not think the use of nuclear weapons will destroy the world. It’s just that there needs to be a good excuse for their use. We have not seen a good excuse yet.

Russian Lawmaker Asks Ban Ki-Moon To Move UN Headquarters From US To Switzerland

A Russian lawmaker has made a suggestion to move the United Nations headquarters to a neutral country like Switzerland. Igor Zotov, a member of the defense committee of the lower house of Russia’s parliament State Duma, requested Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov and the U.N. Secretary General Ban Ki-moon that the headquarters of the intergovernmental organization should be moved from the U.S.

Zotov said that placing the U.N. Headquarters in the U.S. was a mistake of the Soviet foreign policy. According to him, the decision might have been a result of a good personal relation between the former Soviet leader Joseph Stalin and his American counterpart, Franklin D. Roosevelt.

“I do believe that the deployment of the UN in one of the member countries of the Security Council was a mistake in the number of Soviet foreign policy mistake of Stalin,” Russian newspaper Izvestia quoted Zotov as saying. “The organization should be placed in a neutral country, and then the problems faced by many countries, not only Russia, with regards to participation in UN activities, it would not be.”

Russian Lawmaker Asks Ban Ki-Moon To Move UN Headquarters From US To Switzerland

10 Things That Are Going To Happen Within 15 Days Of The End Of The Shemitah

Is a great shaking coming to America?  An amazing convergence of events is going to take place during the last several weeks of September 2015.  Many are suggesting that this could indicate that something really big is about to happen.  In fact, some vendors of emergency food are reporting shortages because so many people are stocking up on food and supplies in anticipation of what is coming.  And of course the list I am about to share with you is not necessarily exhaustive.  There are events that are currently unknown or unanticipated that could also fall during this time frame.  But without a doubt, the incredible confluence of events that we already know will happen appears to be unlike anything that we have ever experienced before.

It all starts with the end of the Shemitah year on September 13th.  If you are not familiar with the Shemitah year, please see this article.  During the last two cycles, we witnessed historic stock market crashes on the very last day of the Shemitah year (Elul 29 on the Biblical calendar).  For example, if you go back to September 17th, 2001 (which was Elul 29 on the Biblical calendar), we witnessed the greatest one day stock market crash in all of U.S. history up until that time.  The Dow plunged 684 points, and it was a record that held for exactly seven years until the end of the next Shemitah cycle.

On September 29th, 2008 (which was also Elul 29 on the Biblical calendar), the Dow plummeted 777 points, which still today remains the greatest one day stock market crash of all time in the United States.

Now we are in another Shemitah year.  It began in the fall of 2014, and it ends on September 13th, 2015.

So will we see a stock market crash in the United States on September 13th, 2015?

No we will not, because that day is a Sunday.  So I can guarantee there will not be a stock market crash in the U.S. on that day.  But as author Jonathan Cahn has pointed out in his book on the Shemitah, we have witnessed major stock market crashes happen just before the end of the Shemitah year and we have also witnessed major stock market crashes happen within just a few weeks after the end of the Shemitah year.  So we are not necessarily looking at one particular date.

And this time around, a whole bunch of critical events just happen to fall in the period of time immediately following the end of the Shemitah year.

The following are 10 things that are going to happen within 15 days of the end of the Shemitah…

September 14th – Rosh Hashanah

September 15th – The Jade Helm military exercises are scheduled to end.

September 15thThe 70th session of the UN General Assembly begins on this date.  It has been widely reported that France plans to introduce a resolution which will give formal UN Security Council recognition to a Palestinian state shortly after the new session begins.  Up until now, the U.S. has always been the one blocking such a resolution, but Barack Obama has already indicated that things may be different this time around.  If alarm bells are going off in your head as you read this, then you probably already understand how significant this event could potentially be.

10 Things That Are Going To Happen Within 15 Days Of The End Of The Shemitah

“Is a great shaking coming to America?”

Maybe. I see two signs of things that could happen:

  1. Financial crash
  2. Israel attacks Iran, and the Middle East blows up because of it.

Message from Jonathan Cahn

Is China’s Economy On The Verge Of Collapse?

Financial problems are not just limited to China. There is the US, Greece, most of Europe, Russia, Japan and more that could be in trouble during the next economic shock. We are already seeing how extremely low oil prices are causing trouble in oil exporting countries like Russia and Venezuela. And it is likely that this oil price squeeze is not going away soon.

Next there is the problem of Israel attacking Iran. Time is running out, so Israel can’t wait forever. If it did choose to attack Iran in September then it is likely a pretty massive war will break out between Israel and its immediate neighbors. I’m thinking about the possibility of nuclear war. If it did go nuclear then I’m thinking we could see financial contagion flowing around the world.

In the past I’ve mentioned Isaiah 18. Take a look at Isaiah 18:5:

5. For afore the harvest, when the bud is perfect, and the sour grape is ripening in the flower, he shall both cut off the sprigs with pruning hooks, and take away and cut down the branches.

– When a process is just about complete, God stops it with a judgment.

I believe this particular chapter discusses the destruction of America, and there is also a secondary target that acts as a catalyst for the primary target (America.) Isaiah 18:5 gives us a clue or hint about a secondary target. Now take a look at Isaiah 18:3 where we learn more about the secondary target:

3. All ye inhabitants of the world, and dwellers on the earth, see ye, when he lifteth up an ensign on the mountains; and when he bloweth a trumpet, hear ye.

– When Israel takes the West Bank and plants a flag, then watch out. The secondary target being the Palestinians and probably other immediate neighbors.

It appears to me one possibility is that God cuts out the Palestinians (the secondary target) just as they are on the verge of acquiring a state this September. Israel obliterates its neighbors, including the Palestinians, and seizes their land. Shortly thereafter Israel moves to rebuild its temple on the Temple Mount. As a consequence of this action, America in short order could be destroyed.

Obviously I do not know if any of this is going to happen, and that’s why we watch. If you see Israel obliterate its neighbors then you had better get ready for the worst.