Drivers unlikely to see gas prices retreat to levels enjoyed for a generation
The two events, half a world apart, went largely unheralded.
Early this month, Valero Energy in Texas got the unwelcome news that Mexico would be cutting supplies to one of the company’s Gulf Coast refineries by up to 15 percent. Mexico’s state-owned oil enterprise [...]

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With its tail between its legs, Britain’s biggest company is being all but chased out of Russia. BP will try to put a brave face on the retreat of Bob Dudley, still nominally chief executive of TNK-BP, to the safety of St James’s Square. But it does not look good. When you wish to assert [...]

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In yet another skirmish over oil rights in the South China Sea, China has fired a stern warning shot across the bow of ExxonMobil Corporation. China is miffed that Exxon is seeking to enter into a deal with PetroVietnam to explore for oil in waters surrounding the disputed Spratly and Paracel island chains.
China has warned [...]

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As China’s energy demands grow at a rate much faster than any other country in the world, so too have its relationships with the oil-producing nations in the Middle East. With half its oil imports from the region, China’s Middle East policy is on the verge of a “great leap forward.” Chinese strategy for securing [...]

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Some autocratic governments are challenging U.S. policies and silencing domestic dissent. But their increased spending raises the risk of inflation, which could erode popular support.
But some of the most obvious effects are in countries whose leaders are most hostile to the United States: Venezuela’s populist President Hugo Chavez, Iran’s stringent Islamic rulers and Russia’s growing [...]

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Venezuela’s proven oil reserves are among the top ten in the world. Oil generates about 80 percent of the country’s total export revenue, contributes about half of the central government’s income, and is responsible for about one-third of the country’s gross domestic product (GDP). Increases in world oil prices in recent years have allowed Venezuelan [...]

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The rapid increase in oil prices and the rise in metal and mineral demand worldwide have made the Russians overconfident. Their annual cash income in the last four years has grown fourfold. The economic crunch of the 1990s is behind them. Thus the Russians have become somewhat politically belligerent, visible in the opposition they have [...]

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Growing competition for oil may escalate to something as hot and dangerous as nuclear proliferation
The geopolitical implications of this gathering crisis for world oil supply 2010-15 are immense. The risk of further military interventions and conflicts in the Middle East is clearly high. Total world oil reserves are estimated at 2.5-2.9 trillion barrels, of which [...]

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The word “petrostate” typically conjures up images of Middle Eastern sheiks with fantastically wealthy lifestyles ruling politically repressive, oil-rich desert regions. Few realize that Russia actually leads the world in the production and export of natural gas and trails only Saudi Arabia in the production and export of oil. Even fewer know that Russia has [...]

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Dubai recently announced its partnership with China in the creation of a billion dollar investment fund. Saudi commitment to double oil exports to China by 2010. These two announcements exemplify China’s Middle East energy strategy: to entrench itself economically in the region, even at a loss, so as to obtain the political leverage required to [...]

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Russia’s record oil output is slipping, and major tax cuts are on the way. But massive investment is needed.
After climbing for years, Russia’s output has begun to drop: It was down by 0.7 percent in April. The problem is so serious that the new Prime Minister, former President Vladimir Putin, has said the issue is [...]

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The BP chairman suggested that the tactics adopted by the AAR consortium were a return to the 1990s, a lawless period when many of Russia’s biggest fortunes were amassed by a small group of individuals, often referred to as oligarchs.
Mr Sutherland also pointed a finger at the Kremlin and asked why the Russian government had [...]

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With energy demand spiking, China looks for answers in Africa. But Western investment and influence still dominate the continent’s oil market.
As global demand for energy continues to rise, major players like the United States, European Union (EU), and Japan are facing a new competitor in the race to secure long-term energy supplies: China. As its [...]

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Why are oil prices soaring so high, and will they ever return to Earth? Fatih Birol, chief economist at the International Energy Agency in Paris, explains why peak oil is real, why biofuels are indispensable, and how China determines what you pay at the pump.
Read More…

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“The big story is productivity in China,” he asserts, noting it is an incredible 9%, or three times the level of productivity in the US during its 1990s peak. Admiral Owens attributes this to the country’s high-quality infrastructure. It will allow the Chinese economy to soon become the second-largest in the world, with a GDP [...]

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By George Friedman
The Saudis are hosting an interfaith conference June 4. Four hundred Islamic scholars from around the world will be there, with one day devoted to interfaith issues. Saudi King Abdullah will open the conference, over which Saudi Shura Council head Saleh bin Huma will preside. This is clearly intended to be a major [...]

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Since the late 1990s, there has been a flood of research on natural resources and civil war. This article reviews 14 recent cross-national econometric studies, and many qualitative studies, that cast light on the relationship between natural resources and civil war. It suggests that collectively they imply four underlying regularities: first, oil increases the likelihood [...]

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By George Friedman
Oil prices have risen dramatically over the past year. When they passed $100 a barrel, they hit new heights, expressed in dollars adjusted for inflation. As they passed $120 a barrel, they clearly began to have global impact. Recently, we have seen startling rises in the price of food, particularly grains. Apart from [...]

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Output is tanking, but there’s fierce opposition to a plan that could reward Big Oil for helping find new reserves
Reform is urgent: Oil output in Mexico, the world’s No. 6 producer of crude, is plummeting. At the Cantarell field, the country’s main source of oil, production is declining 15% annually. Pemex pumped 2.85 million barrels [...]

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Oil prices are soaring for three key reasons: the decline in the dollar, increase in demand from China, India and other countries, and finally decrease in supply due to underinvestment in oil fields and decrease in oil production.
The decrease in oil production from existing fields is primarily due to passing peak oil. As oil is [...]

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Why has the price of oil risen so much in the past few months? Is it a supply and demand issue as some believe; or is it because of an out-of-control futures market driven by the proliferation of commodity index funds and rampant speculation, as everyone tries to get in on the rise in commodity [...]

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