Category Archives: Trade

How Richard Longworth Predicted 20 Years Ago That Globalization Would Cause a Social Crisis | Newgeography.com

Longworth points out the hypocrisy inherent in some free trade arguments by pointing to China’s extremely state managed economy and highly protectionist legal system. By the standard arguments, this should have torpedoed them. Yet China has had a three decade run of fabulous growth so far. Even if they crash tomorrow, that’s remarkable. Far from chasing away businesses, even companies they’ve banned like Facebook continue to prostrate themselves before Emperor Xi hoping to get back in, all while delivering sanctimonious lectures to governments back home. And speaking of the tech industry, Longworth saw that China was using its trade discrimination rules to move up the value chain too:

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[China] has every intention of upgrading its exports from clothing and toys to high-end, high-tech, high-profit goods such as cars, electronics, and pharmaceuticals….and it is using its trade and investment policies to force Western companies to help it achieve this mastery, which it clearly intends to employ to compete with these countries in the future. Western and Japanese companies that want to invest in China are forced to bring in modern technology and teach the Chinese how to use it.

The Primacy of the Nation and Its Social Integrity

In contrast to the pre-Trumpian mainstream thinking of the Clinton-Bush-Obama years, Longworth argued that even if it’s economically inefficient, some type of protectionism was necessary in order for developed country societies to survive China’s entrance into the global trade system intact:

How Richard Longworth Predicted 20 Years Ago That Globalization Would Cause a Social Crisis | Newgeography.com

Economic trade shocks correlated with rise of nationalism in Europe – Business Insider

“The main message of this paper is that globalization might not be sustainable in the long run in the absence of appropriate redistribution policies aimed at compensating the so-called ‘losers’ of globalization: those segments of society that bear most of the adjustment costs of international trade,” the authors wrote in their paper.

They continued (emphasis ours):

“The unequal sharing of the welfare gains brought about by globalization has resulted in widespread concerns and a general opposition to free trade. Such a sentiment is interpreted and promoted especially by nationalist and radical-right parties, whose policy proposals tend to bundle support for domestic free market policies with strong protectionist stances. This policy bundle has started to be referred to as ‘economic nationalism’ also in public discussion. As parties offering such a policy mix become increasingly successful, we might see the end — and possibly even a reversal — of globalization.”

Economic trade shocks correlated with rise of nationalism in Europe – Business Insider

Globalization includes heavy trade and immigration with/from other countries. Of course, trade and immigration can help Europe but not the way they are being implemented. Trade must be balanced, and heavy trade with hostile countries like China should be heavily restricted. Also. immigration should only include people who will actually benefit Europe not drag it down.

Globalization falls under the “equality” tsunami spreading out over the West. Remembering that equality means equality of outcome, one can see that equality is just another name for communism. Keep pushing equality long enough and a society must end up with communism after it passes through the socialism phase. That’s because socialism will never include enough equality. Globalization is just equality on an international scale.

Now people are getting fed up with globalization and are starting to push back. It comes in the form of nationalism. Nationalism is just true diversity on a global scale.

Trump/Navarro saber-rattling has already shaken up China | San Diego Reader

Says the Guardian, “The Chinese government is a despicable, parasitic, brutal, brass-knuckled, crass, callous, amoral, ruthless and totally totalitarian imperialist power that reigns over the world’s leading cancer factory, its most prolific propaganda mill and the biggest police state and prison on the face of the earth. That is the view of Peter Navarro, the man chosen by Donald Trump to lead a new presidential office for U.S. trade and industrial policy.” This is likely to add to Beijing’s anxieties over Trump’s plans for U.S.-China relations.

Elazar Advisors, writing in Seeking Alpha, say bluntly, “A trade war is coming.” Elazar picks up some quotes from the Death by China video: “What’s wrong with taking China to task? They pirate our technology. They pirate our intellectual property rights. They counterfeit our goods and services and no administration has the backbone to stand up to them.…When you shop, always read the label. If the label says ‘Made in China,’ think about your job, think about your safety, think about China’s rapid military buildup.” Elazar says that if Trump and Navarro get their way, the stocks of companies with major China business, such as San Diego’s Qualcomm (more than half its revenues come from China), will get hit, at least initially.

Trump/Navarro saber-rattling has already shaken up China | San Diego Reader

The risk of an escalating trade war between China and the US is rising fast.

US President Donald Trump’s trade advisor, Peter Navarro, proposed a blanket 45% tariff on all Chinese-made goods.

And Goldman Sachs analysts Andrew Tilton and Alec Phillips said they saw “little reason to believe” that Trump would back down on imposing restrictions on Chinese imports such as on steel and machinery.

“We believe the Trump administration is likely to make an announcement on China’s currency policy and impose unilateral tariffs on a number of products,” the analysts said in a note to clients. …

GOLDMAN SACHS: How Donald Trump will escalate a trade war with China – Business Insider

“Death By China” Film Exposes Suicidal U.S. Policy

Video by Peter Navarro.

Death By China: How America Lost Its Manufacturing Base (Official Version)

America is facing an existential threat that has potentially catastrophic military, economic, political, and national security implications. That threat is the U.S. “trade relationship” with the regime ruling Communist China, a suicidal pact engineered by globalist schemers in Washington, D.C., and New York and by power-hungry Chinese Communist schemers in Beijing. According to the film Death By China: How America Lost Its Manufacturing Base, directed by economist Peter Navarro, it is one of the “most urgent problems facing America.” And even that may be understating it. Without action, it could literally be the death of America as it has been known for more than two centuries.

While the hit film is from 2013, it is perhaps more relevant now than when it was first released. That is partly because President-elect Donald Trump not only has suggested that he understands the enormity of the problem, but that he intends to do something about it. “Death by China is right on,” Trump is quoted as saying about the movie. “This important documentary depicts our problem with China with facts, figures and insight. I urge you to see it.” And as if to prove that he is serious, Trump appointed Death by China director Navarro, an economist, to lead his newly formed White House National Trade Council. The dictatorship ruling mainland China expressed concerns, but advocates of sane, America First trade policies celebrated the decision.

“Death By China” Film Exposes Suicidal U.S. Policy

Trump’s Trade War May Have Already Begun – The New York Times

America’s traditional allies are on the lookout for new friends.

They have heard the mantra “America First” from the new president, divining a Trump doctrine: global cooperation last. Europeans have taken note of Mr. Trump’s denigration of the European Union and his apparent esteem for the Russian president, Vladimir V. Putin. In Asia and Latin America, leaders have absorbed the deepening possibility that Mr. Trump will deliver on threats to impose punitive tariffs on Mexican and Chinese imports, provoking a trade war that will damage economic growth and eliminate jobs around the world.

“We’ve always said that America is our best friend,” Jeroen Dijsselbloem, president of the Eurogroup — comprising finance ministers from countries sharing the euro currency — said in an interview with The New York Times on the sidelines of the World Economic Forum in Davos, Switzerland, this month. “If that’s no longer the case, if that’s what we need to understand from Donald Trump, then of course Europe will look for new friends.”

Trump’s Trade War May Have Already Begun – The New York Times

Will Trump’s hard line on US trade with China mean the end of business as usual? | South China Morning Post

“Western complaints about …, all seem to point to the end of business as usual between the two countries.”

Robert Boxwell says the Trump administration, which appears ready to tackle head-on America’s multifaceted trade conflicts with China, should be clear about its plans

One advantage to having some hardened old capitalists coming into the Trump administration is that they understand, first-hand and in great detail, what the problems of doing business with Beijing are. Western complaints about dumping steel and aluminium, cyber theft of trade secrets, mainland acquisitions of strategic assets in technology and media, combined with belligerent talk about the South China Sea and Taiwan, all seem to point to the end of business as usual between the two countries.

Will Trump’s hard line on US trade with China mean the end of business as usual? | South China Morning Post

Facing Trump, Mexicans Think the Unthinkable: Leaving Nafta – The New York Times

Not long ago, any suggestion that Mexico might walk away from the North American Free Trade Agreement would have been met with utter disbelief.

That was before Donald J. Trump was elected president of the United States.

Free trade is a mantra of Mexico’s political elite, the core of the country’s development strategy.

But now that Mr. Trump has said he wants to renegotiate Nafta, a growing number of Mexican officials and businesspeople are asking what price is worth paying to stay in it. Many of them are concluding that Mexico could have more to lose from years of haggling and economic uncertainty than from simply opting out.

Facing Trump, Mexicans Think the Unthinkable: Leaving Nafta – The New York Times

DEUTSCHE BANK: The risk of a full-blown trade war between the US and China is rising – Business Insider

The risk of a serious trade war between the world’s two largest economies has sharply increased, according to analysts at Deutsche Bank

And it may be down to a product known as distillers’ dried grains, an ingredient in animal feed.

Last week China increased anti-dumping tariffs on US imports of the grains from 33.8% to as much as 53.7%.

DEUTSCHE BANK: The risk of a full-blown trade war between the US and China is rising – Business Insider

Trump Picks Peter Navarro for Trade and China Hits the Panic Button | Observer

Navarro (an Observer contributor) has always felt that America was in a trade war with China and that “free trade” was a fiction endorsed by academic economists with no understanding of the real world. A recent research paper by professors David Autor (MIT), David Dorn (University of Zurich) and Gordon Hanson (UC San Diego) entitled The China Shock reinforces Navarro’s argument that China’s predatory trade practices will devastate large swaths of America. Adding more weight to this narrative is the fact that in 2015, Princeton University economist Angus Deaton won a Nobel Prize for his research showing that deindustrialization in the United States is responsible for a host of social ills including drug addiction, suicide and a surge of early deaths.

Just as the Boxers sent shockwaves through the West, so has Trump’s appointment of Navarro in China. …

Trump Picks Peter Navarro for Trade and China Hits the Panic Button | Observer