Category Archives: War

Are China and America Destined for War? | The National Interest Blog

Ultimately, what could drive conflict between Xi’s China and Trump’s America is a similarly held perception in both countries being somehow victims. Beijing has long promoted the idea that it has been oppressed and constrained by foreign powers, and that this therefore entitles it to special consideration. An “official narrative” of humiliation by Western powers is particularly driving a new Chinese populist-nationalist foreign policy.

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But now the US, under Trump, is playing a similar victimhood card. Trump won election by arguing that the US has been made a sucker by foreign powers, and his response is to raise the country’s military profile and be more intransigent and demanding when it comes to trade and international relations.

Are China and America Destined for War? | The National Interest Blog

If both China and America are victims, then the outcome of war looks more likely than not.

Hezbollah warns ‘no red lines’ in next war with Israel | The Times of Israel

Hezbollah will not keep to any “red lines” in a future war with Israel, Nasrallah cautioned.

“In the face of Israel’s threats to destroy Lebanon’s infrastructure, we will not abide by red lines, especially regarding Haifa’s ammonia and the nuclear reactor in Dimona. Hezbollah possesses the full courage for this,” he said, according to an English translation of his comments reported by the Naharnet website.

He also warned Israel to “count to a million” before going to war in Lebanon.

Hezbollah warns ‘no red lines’ in next war with Israel | The Times of Israel

Russian troops are preparing for a “time of war” – VICE News

… However, one expert in Russian military warns that the true motivation behind the preparations could be much more sinister.

More worryingly, it could also preempt more significant military action. Russia has a track record of using military exercises as cover for massive troop movements in the run-up to an attack – giving it the advantage of surprise. This was seen before the war in Georgia in 2008 and again in the attack on Ukraine in 2014, according to Zysk.

This all comes at a time when Russian relations with NATO and several western governments are at breaking point. “Given the tensions and uncertainty about the intent behind Russia foreign policy in many European capitals … such large-scale surprise exercises amplify therefore the sense of insecurity,” Zysk said.

Russian troops are preparing for a “time of war” – VICE News

Is a new Middle East war on Israel’s horizon? – BBC News

Professor Asher Susser, a senior fellow at the Center for Middle Eastern Studies at Tel Aviv University, summed it up in one sentence.

“The changes in Syria,” he told me, “have brought Iran closer to Israel’s borders than ever.”

He told me that at least in theory it creates “the possibility of Iranian-Hezbollah co-operation not only along the border between Israel and Lebanon but along the border between Israel and Syria as well”.

In his view there is “a dangerous potential for a long border from the Mediterranean, across Lebanon and Syria, with Hezbollah and Iran at very close quarters with Israel.

“Israel,” he stressed, “has never faced that kind of situation on its northern border before.”

Is a new Middle East war on Israel’s horizon? – BBC News

Recently Iran threatened war with Israel over settlement activity:

Iranian Revolutionary Guards Spokesman: Settlements Will Spark War That Will Lead to Israel’s Destruction

Ongoing Israeli settlement construction will spark a war that will lead to the Jewish state’s “complete destruction,” an Iranian military official said on Thursday, the Tehran regime-aligned Tasnim news agency reported.

Iranian Revolutionary Guards Spokesman: Settlements Will Spark War That Will Lead to Israel’s Destruction | Jewish & Israel News Algemeiner.com

Backing Into World War III | Foreign Policy

“Accepting spheres of influence is a recipe for disaster.”

Americans tend to take the fundamental stability of the international order for granted, even while complaining about the burden the United States carries in preserving that stability. History shows that world orders do collapse, however, and when they do it is often unexpected, rapid, and violent. The late 18th century was the high point of the Enlightenment in Europe, before the continent fell suddenly into the abyss of the Napoleonic Wars. In the first decade of the 20th century, the world’s smartest minds predicted an end to great-power conflict as revolutions in communication and transportation knit economies and people closer together. The most devastating war in history came four years later. The apparent calm of the postwar 1920s became the crisis-ridden 1930s and then another world war. Where exactly we are in this classic scenario today, how close the trend lines are to that intersection point is, as always, impossible to know. Are we three years away from a global crisis, or 15? That we are somewhere on that path, however, is unmistakable.

The Dark Ages 2.0

… Now, the question is whether the United States is willing to continue upholding the order that it created and which depends entirely on American power or whether Americans are prepared to take the risk — if they even understand the risk — of letting the order collapse into chaos and conflict.

Backing Into World War III | Foreign Policy

I’ve been following this problem since 2003. From what I can see a global crisis is a lot closer to three years than 15. And it might even be less than three years.

Donald Trump and China on dangerous collision course, say experts | US news | The Guardian

“Report says ties between the two nuclear-armed countries could deteriorate into an economic or military confrontation”

The group’s report, which was handed to the White House on Sunday and will be published in Washington DC on Tuesday, says ties between the two nuclear-armed countries could rapidly deteriorate into an economic or even military confrontation if compromise on issues including trade, Taiwan and the South China Sea cannot be found.

It says China’s increasingly assertive actions in the region – which include placing sophisticated weapons systems on artificial islands – coupled with growing domestic nationalism risks setting the US and China on “a dangerous collision course”.

Donald Trump and China on dangerous collision course, say experts | US news | The Guardian

US-China war would be a disaster for the world, says Communist party | World news | The Guardian

A military conflict between the US and China would spell disaster for the world, the Communist party’s official mouthpiece has warned, in its first pronouncement on ties between the world’s two largest economies since Donald Trump moved into the White House.

“Were the United States and China to wage war on one another, the whole world would divide itself,” the People’s Daily newspaper argued in a commentary, paraphrasing Henry Kissinger, the veteran US diplomat whose secret mission to China led to the historic rapprochement between Richard Nixon and Mao Zedong in 1972.

Fears of a potentially calamitous trade war, or even a military clash between the two nuclear powers, have been building since Trump’s shock election win last November.

US-China war would be a disaster for the world, says Communist party | World news | The Guardian

US would go into any war with China with ‘unparalleled violence’, warn experts | The Independent

Dr Peter Roberts, director of military sciences at the Royal United Services Institute, said: “America would take military losses. They would lose thousands and thousands [of personnel]. But China would be utterly defeated. If America goes to war, it wages war in its totality. They would go to this with unparalleled violence and energy.”

The US has an “overall competitive edge” partly due to technological superiority, Dr Roberts said, but also because the four branches of its military—Army, Navy, Marine Corps and Air Force—are trained to work closely together. “It’s demonstrated how it can use all those arms to deliver military victory,” he said.

US would go into any war with China with ‘unparalleled violence’, warn experts | The Independent

Bannon is right, a war could break out in the South China Sea. Perhaps it’s time for Trump to look it up on a map | The Independent

Here’s what he said last spring: “We’re going to war in the South China Sea in the next five to 10 years … There’s no doubt about that. They’re taking their sandbars and making basically stationary aircraft carriers and putting missiles on those. They come here to the United States in front of our face – and you understand how important face is – and say it’s an ancient territorial sea.” …

Will it work this time? It would be foolish to underestimate the red mist that descends on even the most moderate Chinese patriot when faced with any challenge to China’s territorial integrity. That is why the issues of Taiwan and Tibet have always been so sensitive (and before that Hong Kong). China believes that the South China Sea is its own paddling pool, and the artificial “islands” and reefs it has set up reinforce the point. Each of these obscure archipelagos has their own tale, but they usually involve territorial claims by, in various combinations and in varying degrees of viciousness, Vietnam, the Philippines, the two Koreas, Taiwan, Malaysia, Indonesia and Brunei. And, of course, China.

Bannon is right, a war could break out in the South China Sea. Perhaps it’s time for Trump to look it up on a map | The Independent

A War Between the U.S. and China Would Be World War III (And Might Be Hard to Shut Off) | The National Interest Blog

The window for war between the United States and China will, in all likelihood, last for a long time. Preventing war will require tremendous skill and acumen from diplomats and policymakers. Similarly, the demands of positioning either side for victory will continue to tax diplomatic, military, and technological resources for the foreseeable future. At the moment, however, we shouldn’t forget that China and the United States constitute the heart of one of the most productive economic regions the world has ever seen.

A War Between the U.S. and China Would Be World War III (And Might Be Hard to Shut Off) | The National Interest Blog