Hamas will need to increase its own taxes to pay for maintaining power and social services within the Gaza Strip, raising the likelihood of large-scale protests
The PA is gambling on forcing the Hamas leadership to the negotiating table with Fatah or ruin, in light of a renewed US push for peace negotiationsSponsored Ads
A prolonged period of economic pressure would raise the risk of violent escalation in Gaza and increase the risk of war with Israel, as Hamas would hope that conflict solidifies its grip on power
Such actions, and the poorly played political geostrategic gamesmanship that lies behind them, will inevitably bring China into conflict with the United States and its allies. Fortunately for the United States the sites for these future conflicts are well understood and established, and U.S. long-term investments in long range stealth, directed energy, precision strike, and hypersonic weapons can target the maritime ground zero that these straits represent. China’s strategic miscalculation is that their economy needs access to use the straits, while the United States’ does not.
Strategy involves choices about the vision of war a nation chooses to pursue; one of annihilation, attrition, or exhaustion. Geography, however, remains an unmoving, constraining factor, as the Chinese are re-learning. The United States should seek to develop the doctrines, organizations, and technologies to exploit these ironclad limitations to their aspirations in the most economical manner possible. Sensors, mines, missiles, and unmanned air, surface, and subsurface craft can force China back on the defensive, and shape their spending in the decades ahead while freeing our own resources to focus on other domains.
Amid a quiet, yet massive arms race between Israel and Hezbollah, both sides are preparing for the possibility of a war branching out to the sea.
The new reality for the Israeli Navy is that Hezbollah and Hamas are more than terrorist organizations — they represent new kinds of armies, and in Hezbollah’s case, an army with advanced state-level weaponry.
In Lebanon, Hezbollah’s enormous arsenal of ballistic projectiles and missiles continues to grow. The Iranian-backed Shiite terror group also has a growing number of rockets with GPS guidance kits, and a stockpile of surface-to-sea cruise missiles for taking aim at sensitive targets. Such targets could include Israeli ports, navy bases, civilian and military sea vessels and offshore gas rigs.
“The thinking in Israel about a pre-emptive attack appears to be changing,” a Western diplomat said. “It seems they’re taking this possibility seriously.”
Similar views were heard recently from other diplomats in Beirut, both resident and visiting.
In April, an analysis in the Jerusalem Post claimed that some Israeli officials were “openly speaking about a pre-emptive war under which Israel would strike first to significantly degrade Hezbollah’s capabilities before they could be used in a full-fledged conflict.”
There has been a notable increase in recent weeks of Israeli air strikes against suspected arms shipments, including advanced weapons, inside Syria bound for Hezbollah, underlining Israeli leaders’ view that stronger pre-emptive action is required.
“These weapons have promoted a distinct sense of alarm inside Israel’s Kirya, their Pentagon,” analyst Jonathan Schanzer of the Washington-based Foundation for Defence of Democracies observed on April 29.
Now, America is butting heads in Syria with Russia, the other great nuclear power. We are watching the range of North Korean nuclear missiles stretch inexorably toward Seattle. And people again are thinking about the unthinkable: an attack of which there is no warning, for which there is no defense, and from which there is no escape.
At 92, Annamarie Choo has lived through it all — Hiroshima and Nagasaki, the Berlin Wall, the Cuban Missile Crisis. Now, she says, “In the top of my mind, I think about war. I don’t know how to say this, other than Russia and America, there are communication problems, a big gap. They don’t really understand each other.’’
“My greatest fear, I think, is a third world war,’’ says Jeremie Clifford. “We’re letting the leader of North Korea get away with more, or just as much as, what we let Saddam Hussein get away with.’’
Analysts paint a picture of potential catastrophe – chemical weapons launched across borders, an artillery bombardment on Seoul, nuclear strikes on major global cities and the most pressing real-world test for America’s missile defence system.
Milley has assigned the War College eight major projects: great power war; the Third Offset Strategy for high-tech conflict; strategic risk assessment; Defense Department reform;strategy & planning; global presence and crisis response; the Asia-Pacific rebalance; and building up partner nations in Africa. The Third Offset study alone involves 14 students, all experienced officers, writing papers, briefings, and a full-length book on the operational, institutional, leadership, and ethical implications for the force of 2035-2050. But, because the War College faculty and students doing the projects are already funded by the Army payroll, Rapp said, “We’re doing them at less than a tenth the cost (of) RAND Arroyo,” for example.
Whether he intends to or not, US president Donald Trump is making a lot of people nervous about the prospects of an American attack on North Korea. This week, he said that “a major, major conflict” is a possibility, and he summoned the entire Senate to the White House for a briefing on the rogue nation’s weapons programs, which aim to develop nuclear-tipped missiles capable of hitting US cities.
Even though Trump has a nuclear submarine and an aircraft carrier, the USS Vinson, positioned near the Korean peninsula, experts still put long odds on the US flat-out attacking just based on North Korea’s behavior to date. “I don’t know a single serious Korea analyst, hawk or dove, who thinks it’s a good idea,” says Robert Kelly, an associate professor of international relations at Pusan National University in South Korea. “I would say the likelihood is less than 10%.”
But there are other ways the US could get drawn into a military conflict in the region.
Several recent indicators suggest a climactic conflict may be just around the corner. US support for its ally seems highly likely, but Israel knows defeating Hezbollah will not be simple
Several recent indicators suggest a climactic war might indeed be just around the corner for Lebanon and Israel. In mid-April, Israel announced it had successfully layered its airspace with the most sophisticated anti-missile tripartite defense system ever developed.
Instead it aims at torching all of Lebanon and creating an internal uprising against Hezbollah led by Sunnis, Christians, Druze – and Shiites as well. Ultimately Israel hopes to squeeze Hezbollah out of existence or to lay down its arms under unbearable domestic and military pressure.
The next war will be the fourth Lebanon war. Israel-Lebanon wars:
- 1948 Arab–Israeli War
- The 1967 Six-Day War
- 2006 Lebanon War
The Jewish Press – JewishPress.com – ?Apr 27, 2017?The Palestinian Authority on Thursday announced it will no longer pay Israel for the electricity it provides to the Gaza Strip, in a move that will certainly increase the suffering of local residents. The message was delivered to the Coordinator of …The Times of Israel – ?Apr 25, 2017?In military channels or for civilian needs in the Strip?” the officer told journalists, speaking on condition of anonymity. “There’s a chance this could lead Hamas to a clash with Israel,” he added. The IDF has long warned of the security implications …JerusalemOnline – ?Apr 27, 2017?He added that Hamas uses money it gets from Iran for “funding its military wing, purchasing cement and other materials in order to prepare for war, instead of providing humanitarian aid for its population.” Mordechai’s statements came hours after the …The Times of Israel – ?Apr 26, 2017?Gaza terrorists have dug dozens of tunnels, many reaching under the border into Israel, to launch attacks inside the Jewish state. While Israel destroyed many of them during the summer 2014 war, it says Hamas has since been rebuilding the network, and …Reuters – ?Apr 27, 2017?GAZA With the prospect looming of a Middle East peace initiative by a new U.S. administration more sympathetic to Israel, Palestinian President Mahmoud Abbas has decided to turn the screw on the Hamas group that has kept Gaza out of his control for a …The Times of Israel – ?Apr 26, 2017?Gaza, a tiny territory of 2 million people on the Mediterranean, has suffered through increasing hardship since the Hamas takeover, which triggered a border blockade by neighboring Israel and Egypt. In recent years, Gazans have endured rolling power …Washington Post – ?Apr 26, 2017?In the program, Hamas characterizes itself as a Palestinian resistance movement against Israeli occupation, dropping references to holy war against Jews. It also raises the possibility of a Palestinian state in the West Bank, Gaza Strip and east …Israel Hayom – ?Apr 27, 2017?Gaza, a tiny territory of 2 million people on the Mediterranean, has suffered through increasing hardship since the Hamas takeover, which triggered a border blockade by neighboring Israel and Egypt, imposed as part of the two nations’ war on terror. In …Xinhua – ?Apr 27, 2017?JERUSALEM, April 27 (Xinhua) — Israel fired artillery shells at a Hamas post in the Gaza Strip, shortly after gunshots fired from the besieged Palestinian enclave, causing no injuries, the military said on Thursday. A military spokesman said shots …The Times of Israel (blog) – ?Apr 25, 2017?A senior army officer warns that an impending power outage in the Gaza Strip could lead to a conflict between Hamas and Israel. The coastal enclave is expected to run out of fuel to run its power plant due to a spat between Hamas and the Palestinian …Washington Examiner – ?Apr 27, 2017?… its previous charter calls for a genocide of all Jews—on Monday that is expected to accept a neighboring state on the borders created by the 1949 armistice agreement, reflecting where troops were when fighting from the Israeli War of Independence …Jewish Chronicle – ?Apr 27, 2017?An internal war between the Palestinian Authority (PA) and Hamas over who has control of the Gaza Strip has led to a crisis over who pays Israel for the Strip’s electricity supply. The PA informed Israel on Thursday that it would no longer pay for the …The National – ?Apr 27, 2017?It usually produces 60 megawatts, added to the 125 megawatts supplied by Israel and 25 megawatts that come across power lines from Egypt. The strip was heavily battered in a July-August 2014 war between Israel and Hamas that killed more than 2,200 …The Times of Israel – ?Apr 25, 2017?Hamas seized power in Gaza from the PA in a violent coup in 2007. Israel and Egypt then initiated a blockade officially geared toward preventing the terror group, avowedly committed to the destruction of Israel, from importing weaponry and materiel …Ma’an News Agency (press release) – ?Apr 27, 2017?BETHLEHEM (Ma’an) — Israeli forces shelled an alleged Hamas military post in the southern besieged Gaza Strip on Thursday morning, after soldiers were reportedly shot at earlier in the day. … groups inside the Gaza Strip occasionally fire rockets …Mondoweiss – ?Apr 27, 2017?And as if to prove his “mettle,” he has declared a war on Gaza. Abbas has literally thrown down the gauntlet to Hamas, demanding that it cede its control of the … But Hamas is not without blame. We need a new election. Who would win? I don’t think …Gatestone Institute – ?Apr 25, 2017?No Palestinian leader is even authorized to pledge an end to Palestinian demands, even if he is given all the territories held by Israel since the 1967 Six Day War. Anyone could justifiably come along later — after land had irreversibly changed hands …Aljazeera.com – ?Apr 27, 2017?The Palestinian Authority has notified Israel that it will no longer pay for the electricity Israel supplies to Gaza, as the World Bank warned of power outages deepening a humanitarian crisis. The move could lead to a complete power shutdown in Hamas …National Post – ?Apr 25, 2017?That’s why I began with the NYT, whose specific and disproportionate bias against Israel was meticulously annotated in Richard Behar’s 50-page Forbes.com article on NYT reportage during the 2014 Israel–Hamas war. The glossing-over of Barghouti’s …JerusalemOnline – ?Apr 25, 2017?In an exclusive interview with JerusalemOnline, David Bedein, the head of the Center for Near East Policy Research, discussed the connections between Hamas and Fatah, which are highlighted in his recently published book titled: “The PLO and the Genesis …The New Arab – ?Apr 27, 2017?The move, announced in a statement by Israel’s Coordinator of Government Activities in the Territories (COGAT), is thought to be a power play by President Mahmoud Abbas against Hamas authorities in Gaza. The decision will cut power supplies which …Jewish Week – ?Apr 25, 2017?He had been suspended since February, when Israel alleged that he had been elected to a leadership position in Hamas. The ending of al-Hindi’s employment and moves to reform the curriculum seems to have been part of a cleanup for the Trump era.The Jewish Press – JewishPress.com – ?Apr 25, 2017?When Egypt and Jordan attacked Israel (Egypt’s closing the Strait of Tiran was a legitimate casus belli, cause for war), Israel repelled them and ended up sitting on land — Gaza, the Sinai Peninsula, Judaea and Samaria — which it immediately offered …Jerusalem Post Israel News – ?Apr 27, 2017?Fifteen years ago Israel launched Operation Defensive Shield, its largest military operation in the West Bank since the 1967 Six Day War, calling up reservists and sending troops and heavy weaponry deep into the hearts of six major Palestinian cities …Honestreporting.com – ?Apr 25, 2017?1. Sources close to Mahmoud Abbas told the Times of Israel the PA chief may cut off all cash to Gaza. The ultimatum to Hamas: Accept our rule or we’ll stop paying your bills. This “would constitute official recognition of the split between Gaza and the …Ma’an News Agency (press release) – ?Apr 27, 2017?BETHLEHEM (Ma’an) — The Palestinian Authority (PA) reportedly notified authorities on Thursday that it would stop paying for the electricity that Israel provides the besieged Gaza Strip, as the Fatah-ruled PA and Hamas, the de-facto leaders of Gaza …Jewish Journal – ?Apr 26, 2017?Like Rabin, they harbor few illusions about whether Hamas loves Jews or whether ISIS doesn’t have its sights set on Ramallah, much less Amman. As the former head of the Israel Defense Forces’ liaison unit in southern Lebanon, … When Israel conquered …thejewishchronicle.net – ?Apr 27, 2017?The Washington Post reporting on the Arab-Israeli conflict has become increasingly lopsided. The Post, with seemingly greater frequency, omits Palestinian rejection of Israel’s legitimacy and fails to report on internal Palestinian affairs. Instead …Algemeiner – ?Apr 26, 2017?After the outbreak of the Oslo War against Israel in 2000, Barghouti formed the al-Aqsa Martyrs’ Brigades to compete with Hamas in committing suicide attacks on Israeli civilians. Indeed his group has the “honor” of first deploying female suicide “martyrs.Jewish News (blog) – ?Apr 26, 2017?Professor Pullan spoke about how the ‘occupation’ has been bad for Jerusalem. She neglected to mention that in 2015 Jerusalem was 36% Muslim and 61% Jewish, versus just 21%/75% after the Six Day War in 1967. She also said … She supports the total …Tasnim News Agency (press release) – ?Apr 27, 2017?The Israeli military announced in a statement on Thursday that the tank fire had struck and destroyed a purported military site belonging to the Palestinian resistance movement, Hamas, after shots were allegedly fired from the Gaza Strip at Israeli …New Haven Register – ?Apr 24, 2017?Barghouti, and other co-founders of BDS, have made clear time and again that they reject a two-state solution to the Israeli-Palestinian conflict, reject Israel’s right to exist as a Jewish state, and will only accept a single state where Palestinians …The Electronic Intifada – ?Apr 26, 2017?… detainees from the territory it occupies, such as the West Bank, into its own territory. Majd’s imprisonment in Israel is thus a war crime. … Esmat Mansour, who was imprisoned by Israel between 1993 and 2013, said this is a direct result of the …pppFocus – ?Apr 24, 2017?The strikes fall in tandem with Palestinian Prisoners Day and also marks 50 years since the Six Day War between Israel and Egypt in 1967 – where Israel were victorious and captured the Gaza Strip. There are fears that the hunger strike – observed by 1 …Middle East Monitor – ?Apr 26, 2017?The head of the Arab League has called for UN Secretary General Antonio Guterres to stand up for the Palestinian prisoners on hunger strike inside Israeli jails, Quds Net reported on Tuesday. In a letter sent to Guterres, Ahmed Abul-Gheit expressed his …Workers World – ?Apr 24, 2017?While the strike has drawn most of its participants from imprisoned members of Barghouti’s Fatah movement, smaller groups of prisoners from the Democratic Front for the Liberation of Palestine, Hamas, the Palestinian Islamic Jihad and the Popular Front …Breaking Israel News – ?Apr 24, 2017?Barghouti founded the al-Aqsa Martyrs’ Brigade terror group and was the leader of Fatah’s armed wing, the Tanzim terrorist organization during the Oslo War, before being captured by Israeli forces in April 2002. He was tried in 2004, the court …The Electronic Intifada (blog) – ?Apr 24, 2017?Of course, the Times never adds such caveats regarding Israeli leaders who write for the newspaper, even when war crimes they oversaw are detailed by the UN or human rights organizations – perhaps because the international impunity they enjoy means …gulfnews.com – ?Apr 26, 2017?Israeli occupation over the West Bank and East Jerusalem, territories captured during the 1967 war and claimed by the Palestinians as part of a future state, reaches the half-century mark in June. The Palestinian prisoners seek better conditions …The News International – ?Apr 25, 2017?… we discussed Israeli-Palestinian peace. Our ideas were the same: to create the State of Palestine next to the State of Israel, and to establish peace between the two states, based on the 1967 lines (with minor adjustments), with open borders and …Ma’an News Agency (press release) – ?Apr 25, 2017?GAZA CITY (Ma’an) — All Egyptian electricity lines feeding the southern Gaza Strip broke down Monday evening, Gaza’s electricity company said, creating further shortages for the besieged Palestinian territory, which has already been suffering from …Algemeiner – ?Apr 25, 2017?Given that Israel has as little interest in releasing Barghouti as Abbas does in having a new election — the current PA leader is serving the 12th year of the four-year presidential term to which he was elected — it’s not clear how he’ll pull off …Pakistan Today – ?Apr 25, 2017?But when Israel is on the war-path in an effort to discredit criticism, facts don’t matter. … One Israeli minister said that Barghouti should have been “executed”, while another said that Israel should treat their prisoners the way Hamas treats its …