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Find out why May 7, 2012 is the real doomsday for America. On or around that day America will be destroyed by a preemptive nuclear attack from Russia and China.
On Jan. 14, 2010, I created the Doomsday Calendar in response to the Doomsday Clock which was turned back one minute today. It stands at 6 minutes to midnight. So out of touch with a realistic picture of the world today, the scientists responsible for the clock amazingly turned it back instead of forward.
Scientists today moved back the minute hand on the symbolic “Doomsday Clock” to six minutes to midnight to reflect reduced concern that the world is facing the threat of nuclear annihilation.
The hand was shifted back one minute at a ceremony at the New York Academy of Sciences Building in lower Manhattan. Its movements are meant to symbolize a growing or declining threat, with midnight representing destruction by nuclear war.
Think nuclear can’t happen? Then you had better think again. On Feb. 7, 2010 China’s hawks are calling for a cold war. The same article points to a survey where Chinese military officers are predicting a military showdown with America.
What about Russia?
Over the past several years, under the direction of former President (and current Prime Minister) Vladimir Putin and his handpicked protege, Dmitry Medvedev, Russia may have re-emerged on the international scene with a vengeance. But behind all of the Kremlin’s contemporary geopolitical bluster, the successor state of the once-mighty Soviet Union is caught in a demographic and socioeconomic death spiral.
Russia’s real threat? Failure – Decline breeds new and perplexing dangers
The Doomsday Calendar is designed to reflect a more realistic picture of when a nuclear war might start. The doomsday date is set to May 7, 2012. This date is subject to change as we get closer and world events change.
Think of the calendar as identifying a time of high probability for nuclear war. The probably of nuclear war increases as one gets closer to the doomsday date. As one moves away from the date the probably gets lower. In all likelihood nuclear war will not occur on the specific date I have set, but some day near the doomsday date.
The most important thing to remember is the year and the season. If nuclear war occurs in the Middle East in 2011, then the spring of 2012 is a high probability period for a nuclear preemptive attack on America. A little later I explain why the Middle East is headed for nuclear war.
In this article I lay out the foundations of war. For example, one historical set of signs that has been a precursor for war is the three Es: Empires in decline, economic volatility and ethnic unrest. With the globabl economic crisis we now have all three. Today we also match the same signs present right before World War I started: Overstretched superpower, powerful rivals, weakened alliances, terror supporting countries and terrorist groups.
Another way to look at war is like the collapse of something – a sandpile, forest, stock market or society. I show how things can collapse on a regular basis. I also show how these collapses follow the Power Law. Later, there is a video showing how attacks in Iraq follow a straight line defined by the Power Law. The size of attacks and wars follow the Power Law.
The study of how things collapse explains why the United States runs into a crisis every 80 to 100 years. Based on these historical cycles, America has now entered a crisis period running from 2005 to 2025. These cycles simply reinforce the things we are seeing in the world today: America in decline, China on the rise and Russia in serious trouble. I’ve posted some links about the cycles of war as America runs into a crisis and war develops.
Nuclear War in the Middle East
If one realistically looks at the Middle East today, one can see that it is about ready to blow up into a major war involving chemical, biological and probably nuclear weapons too. This war will at minimum kill tens of thousands, but it could easily go up to 10 to 15 million killed if Israel responds with nuclear weapons. Should chemical and biological missiles explode over Israeli cities then I fully expect a nuclear response from Israel.
I expect this war to happen some time in or around 2011. Israel’s neighbors are building up for an explosion right now.
Signs indicative of an impending explosion are coming from every side: from Iran, Lebanon, the West Bank, the Gaza Strip and also Israel, which is on its own against them all. Instead of trying to calm the situation, the region’s leader are sharpening their swords and trading verbal barbs. The evident weakness of the “world’s policeman” is encouraging local leaders to take risks.
An American source says that Syria allowed Hezbollah operatives to train within its territory in the use of advanced SA2 anti-aircraft missile batteries, the Kuwaiti daily Al Rai reported Sunday.
In an interview, the senior U.S. official warned that if Syria supplies Hezbollah with this type of missile, Israel will bomb Damascus and a war will likely ensue.
U.S. official: Arming of Hezbollah could spark Israel-Syria war
All parts of Israel are regularly held exercises to prepare for chemical and bacteriological attacks, APA reports quoting the Swiss newspaper “Le Temps”.
According to the newspaper, the exercises are held daily, even on Saturdays. The Israeli government decided to distribute gas masks to the population and chemical protection kits; Hoc Committee on Civil Defense issued a decree on the equipping of all apartments and public buildings, a special filter that protects against chemical and biological attacks.
According to statements made by Israeli officials that were circulated in European diplomatic and intelligence reports, the Israeli army will not hesitate for one moment to respond to any biological or chemical attacks targeting its cities and villages. It will strongly hit the bombing sources of the missiles with similar devastating weapons that could kill, injure, handicap and disfigure thousands of citizens in southern Lebanon, the Bekaa valley, the Beirut suburbs and the heart of the Gaza Strip and its surrounding areas. These reports described this upcoming war as disastrous to all parties.
The same reports stated that in case Iran strikes Israel with long-range missiles carrying chemical and biological warheads, Israel will respond by devastating air strikes and lethal extremely advanced weapons to target the capital Tehran and other major Iranian cities that are not equipped or trained to handle such a disastrous war like the Israeli cities.
Israel will respond to Iran’s & Hezbollah’s missiles with catastrophic weapons
Timing the Nuclear War on America
Should this war happen then our enemies will assume that America gave its approval to Israel for a nuclear response. That means America will be blamed, and will be subject to retaliation.
Time to prepare for retaliation by Russia and China is probably by the following spring. That puts the year of retaliation in 2012.
The survivors of a nuclear war will need some time to build shelter and to prepare for the next winter. One would prefer the maximum amount of time for this. That means one would prefer to launch a nuclear war in the spring.
The aggressors have a problem in hiding their equipment and troop movements. The best way to hide this movement is to do it in the open, but for an innocent reason. In May there is May Day (May 1) and the Victory Day Parade (May 9th). Both Russia and China can use the time surrounding these days to use as a cover story to hind movement of troops and equipment. May 7th is between those two dates.
One would prefer to launch a nuclear war during the week in order to more efficiently move people into underground shelters. Next, a Monday is preferred so that one has the weekend to hide the movement of government officials. Hence, the arrival at Monday, May 7th.
Yes, I understand that you probably have all kinds of questions, like why would Russia and China start a nuclear war and destroy their societies? In the next part of this article I explain how such a war could really happen.
The Foundation of War – The Collapse
“What if collapse does not arrive over a number of centuries but comes suddenly, like a thief in the night?”
The above quote comes from the LA Times (Feb. 2010) article titled, “America, the Fragile Empire.”
The last empire to collapse quickly was the Soviet Union in 1991. This collapse only took a few years to complete. This article suggests that the collapse of the American empire could be sudden.
The next section explores how complex systems can automatically move to an unstable state where collapse is possible.
In studying how sandpiles collapse the general conclusion is that the actual event causing the collapse was not important. Just one more grain of sand could start a major collapse, yet there was nothing particularly important about that one grain of sand. It was the overall system state before the last grain of sand that is the most important item to consider.
To understand how sandpiles collapse scientists developed computer programs to simulate the dropping of sand and the formation of sandpiles. This makes it easier to simulate millions of sandpiles which are randomly created on the computer.
To make the analysis easier, scientists colored relatively flat areas green and steep areas red.
As the sandpile builds, areas of steepness gradually form. At first these areas are isolated, but over time little fingers of instability form to connect these bigger areas of instability. By connecting various areas of instability, the sandpile system moves to a state where just one more grain of sand can cause a system-wide collapse.
The exact trigger of collapse is unimportant, but the system state before the collapse is important. Since one more grain of sand can cause a big collapse, causality is not linear. Linear causality means that small causes equals small effects.
The areas of steepness, and connectedness position the system for collapse. Think of these as excesses in certain areas. These excesses position the entire system for collapse.
Another area of interest concerns forest fires. Scientists developed computer models of how forests grow. Then they randomly dropped matches in the forest to see what happened. The results are very interesting.
As a forest grows, new trees and plants seek out areas with available light. This forces new growth into open areas which pushes new growth to fill in all available free space.
At first randomly dropping a match into the forest causes an isolated area to burn. Over time the isolated areas become connected so a dropped match can cause a burn to move to other areas.
Here’s the real interesting part. What if you slow down the rate of dropping matches? This is equivalent to using firefighters to put out fires. Doing this provides more time for connectedness to form between areas. Effectively it puts the entire system on the expressway to a supercritical burn.
Allowing small and intermediate fires to burn removes the connectedness between areas. It burns away dead bushes and some of the dead trees. Effectively these fires make it harder for huge fires to start. If you take these away then the system quickly moves to a point where a huge collapse is possible.
The invention of nuclear weapons effectively means that societies owning these weapons will not directly experience the gut wrenching impact of smaller wars. This is the equivalent of eliminating small and intermediate fires.
Think of a nuclear war as the collapse of society in the same way a major forest fire is the collapse of a forest. It turns out that mathematically forest fires, wars and even sandpiles follow the Power Law. The Power Law is a mathematical equation that gives you the number of events with a given time period if you input the size of the event. For example, if you input the number of deaths in an attack or war, then the Power Law can tell you how many such attacks/wars will occur within a given amount of time.
Check out this video explaining how attacks in Iraq amazingly follow the Power Law in the Mathematics of War:
The fact that societies (wars), forest fires, sandpiles and even stock markets follow the Power Law means that there is a similar mechanism in each of them. This mechanism is an automatic feed-back loop that creates a state for collapse.
As prices start to rise in a stock market, some people see the rising price and jump on the bandwagon. And as it continues to rise more and more speculators buy simply because it is going up. This is the feed-back loop. And it continues going on until some event happens to cause it’s collapse.
As a forest grows it fills in all available space until there is practically none left. When a space is filled then new plants will only occur in open space which automatically forces the forest to expand into all available space.. This is the feed-back mechanism.
As a society moves forward in time since its last collapse, people gradually forget about the last collapse, and why it happened. There are more pressures to spend money on non-military items. It gradually becomes acceptable throughout society to not even consider the possibility of collapse or a major war. People influence each other’s thinking about the possibility of attack or war, and how unlikely it is. At this point society becomes susceptible to attack and defeat. This is the feed-back mechanism.
A system feed-back mechanism exists when a prior event influences the next event. In modern societies the feed-back is that there is no concern about a nuclear war.
The Cycles of Crisis and War
America becomes susceptible to a major crisis over about an 80 to 100 year period. About the time people die off that have knowledge of the last crisis or collapse, then their children become susceptible all over again.
In 2005 we entered a new 20 year crisis period where America will be subject to one or a major crises. If our current pain level is a 2 at the beginning of 2010, then our pain level will ultimately reach a 10 before 2025, says historian Neil Howe who has studied our crisis cycles.
Anyone who is being honest recognizes the country is on a path towards a major calamity. We have been living beyond our means for decades and the fiscal mismanagement of the country will come to a dramatic climax in the next decade. What many deny is that this crisis was pre-ordained based upon a predictable timeline of generational forces repeating over and over again throughout history. The elites are continuously stunned that every 20 to 25 years a fresh mood engulfs the country and new generations act differently than the generations who proceeded them. The privileged are astounded because they don’t want to accept the fact that progress is not linear and that society will undergo highs and lows over the course of a century.
Strauss and Howe have authored an absolutely brilliant book that will change the way in which we view history and our place in it. If we look back in time, we see that a great depression, followed by a major war, has occurred roughly every 80 years for the last several hundred years. We know that the history of human progress is not chaotic–it has order. We are taught that history advances along a linear timeline, but intuitively, we know this is not quite right. The authors make the case that modern history moves in ever advancing but repetitive cycles, each one lasting about 80 years, the length of a long human life. Each cycle is composed of four different generations. Taking the most recent cycle as an example, it begins with the G.I. generation (heroes), followed by the silent generation (conformists), followed by the baby boomers (self-indulgent and rebellious), and followed by Generation X (neglected but pragmatic). These four generations propel us through the four stages of a cycle, the survival of a great crisis, followed by confident expansion of the new order, followed by rebellion against the established order, followed by total individualism and a crumbling of order. Society gradually unravels until the next great crisis is thrust upon it, which begins the cycle anew. A debate continues amongst historians as to whether historical cycles do indeed occur. This book makes an overwhelming case for them, using fascinating and captivating arguments right out of the history books.
Most importantly, if Howe is right, this crisis is far from over. In fact, when I asked him where we are today on a scale from 1 to 10 — with 10 representing as bad as the crisis will get — he replied that we are at either 2 or 3. In other words, the worst is very much yet to come. And, per above, he expects this period of turmoil to take 20 years to play out. Thus, if nothing else, you may want to continue approaching matters of personal finance cautiously.
The Geopolitics of War
“Economic volatility, plus ethnic disintegration, plus an empire in decline: That combination is about the most lethal in geopolitics. We now have all three. The age of upheaval starts now.”
The above quote comes from the current edition (March/April 2009) of Foreign Policy magazine on page 58. The author had earlier explained how the three E’s described the reason for conflict in the 20th century. The three E’s being: economic volatility, ethnic conflict or disintegration and empires in decline.
Russia and China are experiencing social unrest due to the global financial crisis that could possibility threaten their regimes at some point in the future. The United States is clearly an empire in decline. But it is ethnic conflict that we should focus our attention, because it is here where we might see conditions for a major conflict. That conflict concerns Israel and its neighbors.
So right off the bat there is the potential for serious trouble on the horizon.
Iran has just (March 2009) acquired the means to build a nuclear weapon capable of fitting on a missile. As of January, 2010 it has the immediate capability of building a truck-size bomb, but we know it has the plans and ability to miniaturize (weaponize) it. It’s just a matter of time now.
One should anticipate the very real possibility that the Middle East could spiral out of control into a major conflict between Israel and its neighbors, and possibly Iran. The reason for this is that Iran will shortly be able to provide a nuclear umbrella for its allies – Syria, Lebanon and Gaza.
It is ethnic conflict spiraling out of control that completes the third E from our set.
Sinking Globalization
We tend to think of the forces of globalization as a permanent part of the landscape—but then perhaps they were thinking that way too in 1914, when a number of factors from an over-extended superpower to a rise in terrorism ushered in the First World War.
Harvard professor Niall Ferguson believes that our current international economy has similarities to the economic dynamics of ninety years ago. Recently, Ferguson took time to expand upon the ideas expressed in his article “Sinking Globalization,” which appeared in the March/April 2005 issue of Foreign Affairs.
Read More of the Interview with Niall Ferguson…
PDF File: Sinking Globalization
In “Sinking Globalization”, we learn that today is a lot like it was right before World War I in 1914. There are five key conditions that were present in 1914 that were necessary to start World War I: a weakened superpower, powerful opponents, unreliable alliances, rogue regimes and terrorist organizations. We see those same conditions are present today.
Conditions present in 1914 that are present today: America is a weakened superpower, Russia and China are powerful opponents, American alliances, such as NATO, are weak and unreliable, Iran and Syria are rogue regimes that support terrorist organizations, and terrorist organizations such as Al Qaeda, Hezbollah and Hamas.
From the article we learn that two forces aligned against each other, today it’s Russia/China vs America, are not enough to start a major world war. We need rogue states (Iran, Syria and North Korea) and terrorist organizations (Hezbollah, Hamas and Al Qaeda) to provide the catalyst for war. Where do we see Iran, Syria, Al Qaeda, Hezoballah and Hamas today? Aren’t these groups surrounding Israel in one way or another?
So events surrounding Israel are the most obvious place to look for the start of a major nuclear war.
Connecting the Dots
How could a war in the Middle East cause a much larger conflict involving America, Russia and probably China too?
In the article titled Russia’s Nuclear Threat, we learn that Russia’s policy is that it reserves the right to use nuclear weapons preemptively to protect itself and its allies (watch video.) Fair enough, but which countries are its allies?
Is Syria an ally of Russia? Check out this article: Russia to defend its principal Middle East ally: Moscow takes Syria under its protection.
Historically, America entered World War II because of a preemptive strike from Japan. World War I also started because of a preemptive strike. A modern attack on America will probably be from a preemptive strike from Russia and China.
Why did the Attack on Pearl Harbor Happen?
What would be Russia’s reaction if at some point in the future Israel destroys Syria with nuclear weapons? Israel just might use nuclear weapons against Syria if it uses chemical weapons against Israeli cities. This article discusses just how close Israel is to a Syrian chemical weapon attack. Although, the article doesn’t forecast Israel’s use of nuclear weapons against this type of attack.
Here’s another article discussing the next Israeli war with its neighbors: Iranian, Syrian missiles to pound Israel in next war.
Israel readies largest exercise ever to prepare for Iran-Syria missile war
Changing nuclear equation
“Should nuclear arms be used in response to powerful conventional attacks?”
“According to the equation accepted by the world, it’s legitimate to use conventional weapons in response to a conventional attack, and similarly, non-conventional (nuclear, chemical, or biological) weapons in response to a non-conventional attack.”
“Six decades after the first and only use of nuclear weapons so far (since then, Egypt and Iraq made limited use of chemical weapons) the time has come to check whether this equation is still relevant. In my view, Israel should regain its deterrent power by threatening a nuclear reaction in response to a conventional attack of similar magnitude.”
Read more from this article at YnetNews.Com.
The first question you might ask is – Doesn’t Russia have a lot to lose by going to war with America? The article, Beware Failing Rogues, describes how economically distressed states might go to war. The more a state has to lose, the less likely it is to risk losing it. With the plunge in oil prices, the stock market and foreign investments [Oct. 28, 2008], what will happen if Russia’s economy turns into a basket case?
If you want to see what nuclear war looks like then check out this YouTube film clip from the movie, “The Day After”.
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