1913 Intel

Apocalypse: Earthquakes, Archaeology, and the Wrath of God

Matt — Fri, 16 May 2008 16:16:14 +0000

WHAT IF Troy was destroyed by an earthquake? What really brought down the walls of Jericho or the Colossus of Rhodes? These are some of the questions Stanford University geophysicist Amos Nur raises in “Apocalypse: Earthquakes, Archaeology, and the Wrath of God” (Princeton University Press: 324 pp., $26.95), a book that posits seismicity — rather than invaders or social forces — as the prime dynamic behind the fall of ancient civilizations.

Link to this book.

A Captivating Book with Everything, May 2, 2008
By G. Poirier (Orleans, ON, Canada) - See all my reviews

Ancient history, archaeology, geology, forensic science, detective work, mystery, etc., this book has it all. According to the principle author, a geophysicist, most archaeologists and historians are not giving enough weight to the possibility that earthquakes have had major influences on human societies in the ancient past. The end of the Bronze Age, around 1200 BC, is offered as one of several important cases in point. By examining physical evidence from various archaeological sites, mainly in the eastern Mediterranean, as well as the local geology (tectonic plates, faults, etc.), the author attempts to demonstrate that, in many cases, earthquakes have not been given due credit for much of the devastation observed. Ancient texts are often quoted to reinforce his case and certain biblical passages are re-interpreted in light of his arguments. The writing style is engaging, highly accessible, authoritative and is a model in clarity; some chapters are indeed quite gripping. Fully illustrated with many photographs, charts and maps, this fascinating book can be enjoyed by anyone, although ancient history and archaeology buffs may relish it the most.

Macedonia : The layout of ancient Pella

The city was founded by Archelaus (413–399 BC) as the capital of his kingdom, replacing the older palace-city of Aigai (Vergina). After this, it was the seat of the king Philip II and of Alexander, his son. In 168 BC, it was sacked by the Romans, and its treasury transported to Rome. Later, the city was destroyed by an earthquake and eventually was rebuilt over its ruins. By 180 AD, Lucian could describe it in passing as “now insignificant, with very few inhabitants”.

U.S.-Saudi Ties: A Complicated Alliance

Matt — Fri, 16 May 2008 13:05:51 +0000

Seventy-five years ago this month, California’s Standard Oil Company closed a deal with the finance minister of Saudi Arabia, a country the United States had only officially recognized two years earlier. The agreement granted the oil firm an exploration contract and initiated a multifaceted and sometimes thorny bilateral economic relationship. Today, oil still dominates U.S.-Saudi ties, which will go on display May 16 when President Bush meets Saudi’s King Abdullah. But the fairly straightforward buy-sell dynamic between the world’s leading importer and leading exporter of crude is increasingly complicated by a host of other issues, from security cooperation to currency concerns.

Petrodollars and Global Jihad

Iran: Greetings From the ‘Great Satan’

Matt — Fri, 16 May 2008 12:58:04 +0000

Well, it’s time to embrace our “inner Great Satan” live up to the moniker, and kick these thugs where it hurts. If not, they will soon destroy one of our cities with a nuclear weapon. They have already announced their intentions to wipe the “little Satan”, Israel, off the map. They have also said as much for their intentions towards us.

I, the Great Satan (Yes, I am fully in touch with my inner Great Satan,) have devised a little plan that will bring these murderous scum to their knees without our firing a shot.

Welcome to Hizballahstan

Matt — Fri, 16 May 2008 12:53:35 +0000

But by the next morning, the battle for Beirut was mostly over. After just six hours of all-out fighting, Hizballah militants were in control of areas of West Beirut that had previously been the government’s preserve. This made for some incongruous scenes. Bearded men with rifles and rocket launchers secured lingerie shops and a Starbucks in the commercial Hamra district. Elsewhere, they surrounded the houses of ministers and members of Parliament and watched buses evacuate students from the American University of Beirut. “It was like a field trip for us,” said a Hizballah fighter standing on the Corniche, the city’s seaside promenade. “Some [government loyalists] were begging us not to kill them. They were literally pissing in their pants.”

What is really happening in Lebanon?

Pakistan-India: Ten years of the Bomb

Matt — Fri, 16 May 2008 12:50:12 +0000

Their political leaders and military planners seem impervious to the fact that a war between Pakistan and India in which each used only five of their nuclear weapons on the other’s cities could kill several million people and injure many more. The effects of a nuclear war could be much worse if India and Pakistan use about 50 weapons each. They have made more than enough nuclear weapons material to do this. Recent studies using modern climate models suggest that the use of 50 weapons each by the two countries could throw up enough smoke from burning cities to trigger significant cooling of the atmosphere and land surface and a decrease in rainfall that could last for years. This could, in turn, lead to a catastrophic drop in agricultural production, and widespread famine that might last a decade. The casualties would be beyond imagination. India and Pakistan are still producing the plutonium and highly enriched uranium that are key ingredients in nuclear weapons. Nuclear policymakers in both countries obviously do not think they have enough weapons. They have never explained how they will decide how many weapons are enough.

Pakistan and India - Under the nuclear shadow

Part 2
Part 3
Part 4

US warns China over weapon links in Iran, Iraq, Afghanistan

Matt — Fri, 16 May 2008 12:41:44 +0000

The US military in Iraq had said its troops had found Chinese-made missiles which they believe were smuggled in by groups in Iran aiming to arm militants fighting US-led forces.

The US military has repeatedly accused Iranian-linked groups of training Iraqi extremists in the use of armor-piercing weapons known as explosively-formed penetrators (EFPs).

Afghan authorities had also seized dozens of Iranian and Chinese-made weapons from Taliban fighters near the border with Iran.

Taiwan: China taking more aggressive stance, MND report shows

Matt — Fri, 16 May 2008 12:39:42 +0000

China has been steadily stepping up fighter plane patrols in the Taiwan Strait, according to the Ministry of National Defense?? (MND) annual national defense report released yesterday.

The report said that while Chinese fighters patrolling the Strait made about 400 sorties per year before 1998, there were 1,500 sorties in 2001 and 1,700 in 2005.

The figures have averaged between 1,300 and 1,700 since 2005, indicating a more aggressive posture, the report said.

Nukes in the Taiwan Crisis
FAS Strategic Security Project Blog, DC - May 13, 2008
Sixty years after the shelling of Quemoy islands, China and the Taiwan Strait remain a center for US military planning and a potential trigger for a nuclear …

China at war over Taiwan

New Russian president vows to fund nuclear weapons

Matt — Fri, 16 May 2008 12:33:44 +0000

President Dmitry Medvedev made his debut as the commander in chief of Russia’s armed forces Thursday, touring a missile base and promising to provide the funding needed for nuclear forces to counter global threats.

Medvedev inspected Topol-M intercontinental ballistic missiles and spoke to officers at the base near Teikovo, a town in the Ivanovo region some 150 miles northeast of Moscow.

“I’m impressed by both the weapons and the level of training,” Medvedev said after inspecting the missiles, which are concealed by the military in a dense pine forest. “It’s good that the military is getting new missiles like the Topol-M.”

The North Korea Challenge

Matt — Fri, 16 May 2008 05:01:38 +0000

In these two articles, AEI’s Danielle Pletka and John R. Bolton bring us up to date and discuss the larger implications of developments since Kim Jong Il pledged to give up his nuclear ambitions in exchange for diplomatic recognition and foreign aid. Pletka reminds readers that since North Korea signed the 1994 accord, it has detonated a nuclear weapon, exported a reactor to Syria, aided Libya’s incipient (and since dismantled) nuclear program, aided Hezbollah, provided sophisticated missiles to Iran, masterminded the counterfeiting of U.S. dollar bills, laundered development aid, and allowed hundreds of thousands of its citizens to starve. Yet the Bush administration “appears intent on the rehabilitation of North Korea and a broad lifting of sanctions,” she says. Bolton argues that North Korea’s proliferation is “quite likely more than a series of one-time transactions.” The underlying reality of the North’s activities, he says, “will haunt Bush’s successor and threaten international peace.”

Georgia and Russia: Gather round the gorge

Matt — Fri, 16 May 2008 04:41:42 +0000

A more plausible explanation of Russia’s propaganda offensive and increase in the numbers of both regular and irregular forces in Abkhazia is not fear of a Georgian attack, but plans for the opposite: an attempt to retake the Kodori Gorge. This would humiliate, perhaps topple, Georgia’s pro-Western president, Mikheil Saakashvili. Russia would see it as giving a firm response to the deplorable precedent of Western recognition of Kosovo’s independence. If you use your muscle to separate Kosovo from Serbia, the Kremlin would grunt, then just watch what we can do to a would-be ally of yours.

Russia urges NATO to help stop military build-up in Georgia
AFP - 17 hours ago
BRUSSELS (AFP) — Russia’s military chief urged NATO Thursday to take steps to stop a build-up of arms in its neighbour Georgia and warned that conflict …
Video: Abkhazia downs two more Georgian spy planes RussiaToday
Remote valley at heart of Georgia-Russia conflict Khaleej Times
Analysis: Bluster, Bathos Permeate Georgia’s war Of Words Against … RadioFreeEurope/RadioLiberty
RIA Novosti - AFP
all 399 news articles »

China: After the Killer Quake

Matt — Fri, 16 May 2008 03:24:27 +0000

China’s Communist Party leaders now face another stern test: to show its citizens and the world that the government can cope with a horrific disaster. Keenly aware of the opprobrium heaped on Burma’s rulers for their callous and incompetent handling of the killer cyclone earlier this month, Beijing will want to demonstrate that it has “the capability and readiness to handle an emergency like this,” says Huang Jing, a China scholar at the National University of Singapore. Swift and transparent handling of the tragedy would also mark another step in Beijing’s evolution from an unfeeling regime that suppressed bad news–as it tried to do with the SARS outbreak in 2003–to one more responsive to the needs of its people.

President Hu Jintao called for an “all-out” response, and the government rallied some 100,000 relief workers, including military, police and medical teams. Premier Wen Jiabao flew to Sichuan, and state-owned television showed him rallying rescue forces, even venturing into the ruins to urge victims still trapped in the rubble to “hold on a little longer.” It’s hard to know how much the tragedy will change China, but this much is certain: with the media allowed unprecedented freedom to report the humanitarian effort, the Chinese will be able to judge their leaders’ performance as never before.

China warns of threat from dams weakened by quake
Reuters - 10 hours ago
By Chris Buckley BEIJING (Reuters) - The earthquake that devastated southwest China has left many dams badly damaged, posing an unknown threat of collapse …

Extensive Nuclear Missile Deployment Area Discovered in Central China

Matt — Fri, 16 May 2008 03:15:11 +0000

It looks like India is the intended target for these missiles located in central China. I guess China’s rise is peaceful until the day that it isn’t.

From Article:

Analysis of new commercial satellite photos has identified an extensive deployment area with nearly 60 launch pads for medium-range nuclear ballistic missiles in Central China near Delingha and Da Qaidam.

The region has long been rumored to house nuclear missiles and I have previously described some of the facilities in a report and a blog. But the new analysis reveals a significantly larger deployment area than previously known, different types of launch pads, command and control facilities, and missile deployment equipment at a large facility in downtown Delingha.

Satellite reveals extensive missile site in China: analyst

“From these launch pads DF-21 missiles would be within range of southern Russia and northern India (including New Delhi), but not Japan, Taiwan or Guam,” he wrote. DF-21s are medium range solid fuel missiles that have been replacing China’s older DF-3 and DF-4 liquid fuel missiles.

View Larger Map

Go to map here.

Danish Pastries

Matt — Thu, 15 May 2008 13:02:14 +0000

Finally, Denmark gets a clue. Not only is multiculturalism a bad thing, it is a death sentence for any country that practices it.

From the article:

This haven of tolerance and openness has opted for survival and rationality. For citizenship, the country now requires of new immigrants:

- 3 years of language classes
- tests on Denmark’s history, culture and language
- 7 years of residency prior to application
- proven job opportunities and commitment to work

New mosques will not be allowed to be built in Copenhagen. Assimilation will be actively promoted. The country that once courageously and righteously saved their 7,000 Jews from the Nazi death camps now is accused of racism.

Geert Wilders Danish TV 11th Hour Part 1

Geert Wilders Danish TV 11th Hour Part 2
Geert Wilders Danish TV 11th Hour Part 3

Dissuading China

Matt — Thu, 15 May 2008 12:53:46 +0000

What about stop trading with China? Wait, that would be inconvenient. Plus it would lower my standard of living.

Wouldn’t war and death lower your standard of living even more?

From the article:

The US would like to prevent China from developing certain offensive military capabilities. A dissuasion strategy has its charms, but it lacks a political context and can be very expensive.

Commentary by Peter Buxbaum in Washington, DC for ISN Security Watch (15/05/08)

Of all the world’s actors, the US security establishment is perhaps most concerned with China as a future rival. Each year the Pentagon submits to Congress an annual report addressing the military power of the People’s Republic of China.

This year’s report warned that “the pace and scope of China’s military transformation have increased in recent years, fueled by acquisition of advanced foreign weapons, continued high rates of investment in its domestic defense and science and technology industries, and far reaching organizational and doctrinal reforms of the armed forces. China’s expanding and improving military capabilities are changing East Asian military balances.”

Another significant strategic document, the Pentagon’s Quadrennial Defense Review, released in 2006, pinpointed China as having “the greatest potential to compete militarily with the United States and field disruptive technologies that could over time offset traditional US military advantages absent US countermeasures.”

The ‘pre-deterrent’

But what countermeasures should the US employ?

Will Israel or the West last another 60 years?

Matt — Thu, 15 May 2008 12:48:36 +0000

I have serious doubts that the West will look anything like it does today in 60 years. I mean demographically it will be significantly reduced in size due to war. First think about the rise of China and the re-emergence of Russia. Next think about the rise of Islam. These are the storm clouds forming in the horizon.

From the article:

But I insist, that Israel’s survival is tied to that of the West. She is our front line, an embodiment of unambiguously Western values. The enemies we have are common enemies — Left-fascist ideology (formerly expressed as Communism, but now reorganizing around the “scientific materialism” of the environmentalist cause), and Islamo-fascist ideology (now called “Islamism,” to distinguish political from religious Islam, on the assumption that this can be done).

These are the two great contemporary Sirens, and each calls upon constituencies lodged deep in the West itself. The appeal of simplistic ideological movements spreads in the spiritual vacuum left by the recession of Christianity.

When Disaster Strikes

Matt — Thu, 15 May 2008 04:02:04 +0000

FP: What potential disasters keep you up at night?

ALL: We’re all concerned about major, disastrous earthquakes. In particular, I’m worried about disastrous earthquakes in Asia. Large cities are built near faults, and there are cities that haven’t seen earthquakes in 500 years but are due. It is entirely conceivable that we could see an earthquake kill a million people this century. It would not surprise seismologists.

On a more persistent basis, I am very worried about tropical cyclones—Myanmar just being the latest example. I think there’s inadequate preparation for them, especially given the technology available to track them and give people prior warning. And the thing that my climate-scientist colleagues are worried about is the long-term climate trends that are going to lead to increasing drought. Drought is so intimately linked to the success of agriculture, and we already have a world food crisis. I worry about the potential for exacerbated drought, particularly in sub-Saharan Africa.

Critics say China’s builders cut corners

Matt — Thu, 15 May 2008 03:53:29 +0000

As the death toll soars from the powerful earthquake that ravaged central China’s Sichuan province, the scale of the devastation is raising questions about the quality of China’s recent construction boom.

“This building is just a piece of junk,” one newly homeless resident of Dujiangyan yelled today, her body quivering with rage. Her family salvaged clothing and mementos from their wrecked apartment, built when their older home was razed 10 years ago.

“The government tricked us.

Ecuador Targets a U.S. Air Base

Matt — Thu, 15 May 2008 03:49:30 +0000

When the Colombian military made its controversial incursion into neighboring Ecuador two months ago, it may well have removed more than just a camp full of leftist Colombian guerrillas. The raid may wind up taking out a $70 million U.S. Air Force base as well. On Monday, Ecuadorian President Rafael Correa said he’s “convinced” the U.S. aided Colombia in the March 1 attack and reiterated his suspicions that U.S. intelligence agencies had infiltrated Ecuador’s armed forces and police — remarks that seem to all but assure that the small South American nation will not renew the lease for the U.S. antinarcotics surveillance base at Manta on Ecuador’s Pacific coast. For Correa, “the political costs” of letting the base stay “outweigh the benefits,” says Freddy Rivera, a security expert at the Latin American Social Sciences Faculty University in Quito.

Ahmadinejad says Israel doomed

Matt — Thu, 15 May 2008 03:46:42 +0000

Iranian President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad said Wednesday that Israel is dying and that its 60th anniversary celebrations are an attempt to prevent its “annihilation.”

He spoke hours after President Bush arrived in Israel for the anniversary celebrations.

“The Zionist (Israeli) regime is dying,” said Ahmadinejad during a speech in northern Iran. “The criminals assume that by holding celebrations … they can save the sinister Zionist regime from death and annihilation.”

Ahmadinejad used an Arabic word, ismihlal, that can also be translated as destruction, death and collapse.

Georgia civil war — Part 1

Matt — Thu, 15 May 2008 03:45:00 +0000

Analysts are actively debating the possible outcomes of an armed conflict between Georgia and the self-proclaimed republic of Abkhazia, which seceded from Georgia in 1992.

Without looking into the most pessimistic scenarios envisioning a nuclear conflict between Russia and NATO, let’s try to predict the possible outcomes of a Georgian-Abkhazian conflict.

In late 2007 the Georgian armed forces had about 33,000 officers and men, including a 22,000-strong army that comprised five brigades and eight detached battalions.

Building with BRICs

Matt — Thu, 15 May 2008 03:39:31 +0000

Are the BRIC countries an emerging threat?

From the article:

The concept of the BRIC countries — Brazil, Russia, India and China — was coined five years ago in a research paper from the Goldman Sachs investment bank.

This week, reality takes over from theory as the foreign ministers of the BRIC countries hold their first formal meeting in the Russian city of Ekaterinburg. They convene with an agenda that includes the issue of biofuels, food security, global financial trends and the impact of the slowdown of the U.S. economy.

They also want to discuss the way in which the global economy is governed, which seems to mean that they understandably want a much bigger role in the key institutions like the International Monetary Fund, the World Bank and so on.

Russian economy: safe haven or oil bubble?

`BRIC’ Nations Summit Seeks to Turn Economic Might Into Clout
Bloomberg - 2 hours ago
By Patrick Donahue May 15 (Bloomberg) — First came the booming economies. Then came the rush of investors. Now the so-called BRIC nations — Brazil, …

The “BRICs” (and Mortar) of the New Global Economy
HoweStreet.com, Canada - 21 hours ago
By John Browne – Senior Market Advisor, Euro Pacific Capital In the early days of the American republic, fortune seekers were urged to “Go west young man! …