Chances of second Korean War between 20 and 25 per cent

Having followed closely the events on the Korean Peninsula for the better part of 35 years, I believe the prospect of a second Korean War remains highly unlikely.

The reality is that it has now become an increasing possibility, but not a probability. Until recently most analysts would have regarded the prospect of a renewed conflict on the Korean Peninsula as a 5 per cent possibility. But because of a range of new factors, that possibility has now increased to between 20 and 25 per cent.

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Chances of second Korean War between 20 and 25 per cent