Give war a chance: How to deal with North Korea

The U.S.-Soviet experience with deterrence shows beyond any possible doubt that military misunderstandings, human error, and technical malfunctions will generate false alarms of an enemy attack and that these false alarms can easily lead to accidental nuclear war. Indeed, using engineering methods designed to examine system failure probabilities, Barrett, Baum, and Hostetler estimate that the U.S. and the USSR had up to a 7 percent chance per year, or up to a 50 percent chance per decade, of accidentally nuking each other.

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So, when members of the foreign policy establishment such as Susan Rice push the deterrence option by writing “we can … tolerate nuclear weapons in North Korea — the same way we tolerated … Soviet nuclear weapons during the Cold War,” you should be terrified rather than reassured.

Give war a chance: How to deal with North Korea