Will the U.S. Go to War With North Korea? Expert Estimates 50/50 Chance of Conflict in 2018

According to Fitzpatrick, what is particularly concerning are what he calls “wildly optimistic assumptions about how the other side will respond.” He told Newsweek earlier this week he believed the most likely scenario for war to break out was Pyongyang misinterpreting a statement from or move by the U.S. government.

Tensions between the two countries already appear to be at breaking point. Following Trump’s U.N. General Assembly speech in September, in which he threatened the total destruction of North Korea, the country’s ruler Kim Jong Un issued an unprecedented first-person response in which he warned the president would “pay dearly” for his remarks.

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Will the U.S. Go to War With North Korea? Expert Estimates 50/50 Chance of Conflict in 2018

As we’ve heard many times before concerning conflicts in general, miscalculation or accident seems to be the predominate reason for escalation into full-blown war. In this case, I would concur with that reasoning. Probably NK will make a mistake which causes the US to react and the escalation takes off. Could that happen in 2018? I think so.

We are probably going to be stuck at 50/50 chance of conflict for quite some time, or until the conflict/war actually happens.