Usually, high religious observance and low income go along with high birthrates. But, according to the United States Census Bureau, Iran now has a similar birth rate to New England — which is the least fertile region in the U.S.
The speed of the change is breathtaking. A woman in Oman today has 5.6 fewer babies than a woman in Oman 30 years ago. Morocco, Syria and Saudi Arabia have seen fertility-rate declines of nearly 60 percent, and in Iran it’s more than 70 percent. These are among the fastest declines in recorded history.
Tag Archives: Birthrates
The Fertility Implosion – NYTimes.com
Posted by Matt
on March 14, 2012
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Global Aging and the Crisis of the 2020s
Posted by Matt
on January 30, 2011
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The weakening of the developed countries might not be a cause for concern if we knew that the world as a whole were likely to become more pacific. But unfortunately, just the opposite may be the case. During the 2020s, the developing world will be buffeted by its own potentially destabilizing demographic storms. China will face a massive age wave that could slow economic growth and precipitate political crisis just as that country is overtaking America as the world’s leading economic power. Russia will be in the midst of the steepest and most protracted population implosion of any major power since the plague-ridden Middle Ages. Meanwhile, many other developing countries, especially in the Muslim world, will experience a sudden new resurgence of youth whose aspirations they are unlikely to be able to meet.
The risk of social and political upheaval could grow throughout the developing world—even as the developed world’s capacity to deal with such threats declines. Yet, if the developed world seems destined to see its geopolitical stature diminish, there is one partial but important exception to the trend: the United States. While it is fashionable to argue that US power has peaked, demography suggests America will play as important a role in shaping the world order in this century as it did in the last.
[Related Article with Video: Dangerous Demographics]
[Fascinating Related Video: Neil Howe and William Strauss on The Fourth Turning in 1997 CSpan]
Why Russia Is Really Weak
Posted by Matt
on July 20, 2008
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The Military
Army remains poorly trained, malnourished and demoralized. Alcoholism, suicide and corruption are rife. Weaponry is aging and newer models arrive at a trickle: India has bought more Russian tanks since 2001 than the Russian Army.
The Economy
What happens when–not if–oil and gas prices begin to retreat?
Human Capital
Russia’s human capital is being ravaged. The population is declining by some 750,000 annually because of low birthrates and unusually high death rates among males;
Institutions
But Parliament has been neutered. So have independent civic organizations, political parties and media. The secret police, military and security services–no friends of the rule of law–occupy prominent political positions. Official corruption flourishes.
Influence
The Kremlin’s meddling in Georgia has deepened Tblisi’s determination to join NATO and strengthened anti-Russian sentiment.
What the West must live with is a weak Russia. And history shows that states that talk loudly while carrying a small stick often overreach, creating problems for themselves and others.
By Newsweek. Published September, 2006.
Read More…
Is Russia Strong Or Weak
Jul 10, 2006 … Russia has a sizeable military, but its inability to end even an internal … resulting in Russia looking weak both abroad and at home. …
Experts Say Red Square Parade Masks Weakened Russia …
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