The article below shows a Russia very much thinking about nuclear war with the West. Here is the thinking of Russian leadership: Stay out of our backyard, or prepare for an all-out nuclear war.
Russia challenges west with nuclear overhaul | World news | The Guardian [Published Sept., 2008]
“This is very significant. Right now the present Russian leadership believes that a war with Nato is very much possible,” Pavel Felgenhauer, a Moscow-based defence analyst, told the Guardian. “This is the first time since the collapse of the Soviet Union that the Russian military is actually preparing for an all-out nuclear war with America.”
He added: “I believe we [the Russians] are sending the west a serious message. The message is treat us with respect, and if you don’t go into our backyard we won’t go into yours. Russia wants to divide the world into spheres of influence. If not, we will prepare for nuclear war.”
Felgenhauer said Russia’s military was old but still effective. “Our military is backward in its development. But we still have a sizeable nuclear potential. It can kill a hell of a lot of people,” he said.
Russia challenges west with nuclear overhaul | World news | The Guardian
Let’s fast forward to November 8, 2010. A mystery missile is launched off the coast of California. The US government or military did not launch a missile at that time. There was no plane in the area at that time. There was no navy ship in the area at that time. However, several experts viewing a video of the launch believe that the mystery missile was in fact a submarine launched ballistic missile.
There can be only one logical explanation for the submarine launch of a ballistic missile off of our coast: It is a warning. While this particular missile was never a danger to America, it was never intended to be. The only logical explanation is that it was intended to be a warning from China.
Here is the thinking of the Chinese leadership: Stay out of our backyard, or prepare for an all-out nuclear war. The backyard that China is referring to is the South China Sea.
China Throws Strategic Challenge At US In South China Sea
China placing South China Sea under the category of “core national interest” along with Taiwan, Tibet, and Xingjian clearly indicates that China has placed this issue in the category of “non-negotiable issues” and that China would use force if necessary against any nation disturbing its sovereignty over the South China Sea. This is an assertion which provides a strategic challenge to the United States and of concern to China’s neighbors.
Read More…
China Threats Merit Shifting of U.S. Defense Dollars, House’s McKeon Says | Boomberg News
“While China today may not intend to attack our carriers, neutralize our bases in Japan and Guam, or push back our naval presence out of the South China Sea, they are without question making the investments and developing capabilities to do just that,” California Representative Howard McKeon says in remarks prepared for delivery today at a meeting sponsored by the Washington-based Foreign Policy Initiative research group.
China Threats Merit Shifting of U.S. Defense Dollars, House’s McKeon Says | Boomberg News
Historically, when a new power challenges an existing one, war has occurred six out of seven times. Will the rise of China lead to conflict with the US?
Great power rivalries in history:
1. Spain versus Holland in the 16th century.
2. Holland versus England in the 17th century.
3. Britain versus France in both the 18th and 19th centuries.
4. France and Britain versus Germany in the 20th century.
5. Germany versus Russia in 1914.
6. Germany versus Russia (Soviet Union) in 1941.
7. Soviet Union versus the US and its allies in the Cold War after 1945. Obviously this did not lead to war.
Is China gearing up to start World War III?
So, put it all together. China has four times our population. They have an economy going gangbusters, but will likely need more oil than exists on the planet, and they have an irrational anger at us for our role in keeping Taiwan out of their clutches. Plus, we owe them trillions of dollars.
It makes for a potent and volatile cocktail, doesn’t it?
Read More…
The Big Picture
Historian Niall Ferguson has identified the decline of an empire as one of the three signs that are present before a major war starts – the three Es: Empires in decline, economic volatility and ethnic conflict: The Axis of Upheaval. With the global economic crisis starting in 2008, the “age of upheaval” has started.
Ethnic conflict serves as a catalyst to start a much larger war. The ethnic conflict that we need to worry about is in the Middle East. Should a conflict involving Israel and its neighbors escalate to the point that a lot of deaths occur, then the potential for further escalation involving other powers is real.
The conditions present right before World War I are present today: Sinking Globalization. In Sinking Globalization the author points out great power rivalry is one cause of war. This is particularly true when one power is in decline or overstretched. Historically, when one power is challenged by another then this leads to war six out of seven times: America-China Rivalry: Six out of seven times war has occurred.
Empires very often collapse quickly: Complexity and Collapse. You can watch highlights of a speech given by Niall Fergusion: Niall Ferguson: Empires on the Edge of Chaos [Length: 3:55 min]. The full version of the talk is available too and lasts over an hour. Niall implies that the US may be on the edge of collapse due to excessive debt. Another article by historian Niall Ferguson argues that America is at risk: An Empire at Risk.
How to think about the future
Imagine a forest that was just obliterated by a very large forest fire that wiped out everything. Would you be worrying about a large fire a couple of years later? How about 10 or 20 years later? You might be worried 65 years later. Over time the forest has time to build up and fill in gaps. Thus the forest positions itself for the next collapse.
That’s nice, but what do forests have to do with anything?
It turns out that forests, sandpiles, earthquakes, financial markets, wars and more have a lot in common. They all experience collapses for a similar reason and follow a power law distribution. If you plot the size of collapse by number of collapses at that size, then you get a straight line which is a power law distribution. For example, the distribution of wars and attacks within wars follow a power law distribution giving a straight line with slope of about -2.5.
The reason that societies collapse into war, financial markets collapse, forests collapse through fire, is due to system feedback. System feedback causes herding in financial markets, forces new trees to grow in open land, causes new grains of sand to land on top of prior grains and changes the thinking in society that make it susceptible to war. When you make decisions that at least partially include historical information, then that is system feedback. For example, do you consult a chart of historical prices before you buy a stock or mutual fund?
When a society experiences a major crisis, like World War II, it profoundly affects the people alive at that time. However, gradually over time as new generations are born the crisis has less and less of an effect. Over about 80 to 100 years the new generations become susceptible to another crisis. If the start of the last crisis was around 1925, then 80 years later is 2005. The next crisis period is from 2005 to 2025: Winter is Coming for Boomers
