In these conjectural sketches I had adumbrated the possibility that by the Law of Unintended Consequences, an attack by Israel (or by Iran) could lead to a cascade of ever more grave developments, ranging from a regional nuclear war to, potentially, a global one. New, perhaps unanswerable questions have emerged in the interim as tension [...]
The cascade of statements, deployments, agreements and announcements from the United States and its regional associates in the last week has to be one of the most unpleasant shocks for China’s leadership — ever. The US is moving forces to Australia, Australia is selling uranium to India, Japan is stepping up military actions [...]
Last summer, Iran began installing two cascades of advanced centrifuges at the Pilot Fuel Enrichment Plant (PFEP) at Natanz. As of August 28, 2011, according to the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA), Iran had installed 136 IR-2m centrifuges in cascade 5 and 27 IR-4 centrifuges in cascade 4. Iran started feeding 54 of the 136 [...]
Normally Iran replaced up to 10 percent of its centrifuges a year, due to material defects and other issues. With about 8,700 centrifuges installed at Natanz at the time, it would have been normal to decommission about 800 over the course of the year.
But when the IAEA later reviewed footage from surveillance cameras installed [...]
Iran has continued to develop its ballistic missile program, which it views as its primary deterrent. Iran is fielding increased numbers of short- and medium-range ballistic missiles (SRBMs, MRBMs) and we judge Tehran will continue to work on producing more capable MRBMs and developing space launch vehicles, which incorporate technology directly applicable [...]
Iran Recycles the Tails in the Production of 19.75 Percent Uranium
ISIS has learned that Iran is now using the second cascade at the Pilot Fuel Enrichment Plant (PFEP) at Natanz to recycle the tails from the first cascade that produces 19.75 percent enriched uranium from 3.5 percent low enriched uranium (LEU). The purpose is [...]
“If North Korea and Iran cannot be contained, we face the real danger of a cascade of proliferation of nuclear-armed states,” he told a conference on the challenges facing the incoming White House team. “Indeed, I believe that today we are clearly at the tipping point of nuclear proliferation.
“Already, North Korea’s nuclear advances [...]
The development of nuclear arsenals by both Iran and North Korea could lead to “a cascade of proliferation,” making it more probable that terrorists could get their hands on an atomic weapon, a congressionally chartered commission warned yesterday.
“It appears that we are at a ‘tipping point’ in proliferation,” the Congressional Commission on the Strategic [...]
“If not handled properly, this issue could trigger a cascade of other crises — affecting economic growth, social progress, and even political security around the world.”
Participants at the High-Level Conference on World Food Security will discuss short-term solutions as well as new strategies to deal with the effects of global warming, growing demand for [...]