International Conflict, Western World Threats and Geopolitical Intelligence
The following are internal Stratfor documents produced to provide high-level guidance to our analysts. These documents are not forecasts, but rather a series of guidelines for understanding and evaluating events, as well as suggestions on areas for focus.
Given the speed with which the Russians reacted to Georgia’s incursion into South Ossetia, Moscow was clearly ready [...]
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By George Friedman at Stratfor.Com.
Introduction
For the first half of 2008, Stratfor focused [...]
Military and political experts both in Russia and Central Asia say the timing of Russia’s ratification of the bilateral agreement with Tajikistan and its plans to reinforce the Kant air base are not coincidental, and show Moscow’s seriousness about fortifying its influence in Central Asia.
Vladimir Mukhin, a Moscow-based journalist and expert on military affairs, says [...]
In itself, Iran’s recent application for membership of the Shanghai Cooperation Organisation (SCO) is probably little more than diplomatic posturing. But coupled with the end of Lebanon’s political stalemate, Turkey’s mediation between Israel and Syria, and Egypt’s attempts to broker a truce in Gaza, it can be seen as part of a new dynamic that [...]
Yet, even though it has an economy comparable with America’s, it stands as a political dwarf in responding to the rapidly changing geopolitical environment. The combination of slavishly following the US lead (with the possible exception of the invasion of Iraq), its reluctance to contemplate badly needed strategic initiatives (as in the Middle East) or [...]
Now, a young, well-traveled, multilingual foreign-policy scholar, Parag Khanna, suggests in “The Second World” that we are on the cusp of a new new world order — “a multipolar and multicivilizational world of three distinct superpowers competing on a planet of shrinking resources.†The three are the United States, the European Union and China. The [...]
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