Tag Archives: climate change

Climate scientists struggle to explain warming slowdown | Reuters

Posted by on April 21, 2013 Comments Off

Scientists are struggling to explain a slowdown in climate change that has exposed gaps in their understanding and defies a rise in global greenhouse gas emissions.

Often focused on century-long trends, most climate models failed to predict that the temperature rise would slow, starting around 2000. Scientists are now intent on figuring out the causes and determining whether the respite will be brief or a more lasting phenomenon.

Climate scientists struggle to explain warming slowdown | Reuters

So there are modeling problems. As I said a couple of years ago, when you calibrate a model based on data within a certain range, and then go outside of that range, then your model might not work correctly. When I heard scientists confidently explain how good their climate models were, I knew we were in for trouble. Because a real scientist would understand that moving into new territory is always dangerous.

Catastrophes!: Earthquakes, Tsunamis, Tornadoes, and Other Earth-Shattering Disasters

Posted by on March 15, 2013 Comments Off

Catastrophes! is divided into two unequal parts. The first eight chapters cover brief, episodic instances of massive destruction, spanning well-known events from the massive Lisbon earthquake of 1755 to the 2005 landslides that scarred La Conchita, California. News reports and first-hand accounts – including extensive quotations from historic sources going back to Pliny the Younger’s account of Pompeii’s destruction by Mount Vesuvius in AD 79 – document the damage, with Prothero stepping in during the latter half of the chapters to explain the mechanisms of the events and debunk the pseudoscience that sometimes surrounds them. (Earthquakes do not rip open huge chasms that ooze lava, for one thing.) Each part is given its own sub-section, and a list of references appends each chapter, giving the book a semi-technical feel between that of a textbook and a typical trade nonfiction book.

At the outset of chapter 9, though, the book switches perspectives. The early part of the book treats catastrophes that occur in the space of hours, days, or weeks, but the last four chapters pull back to a long-term, geological view that covers ice ages, human-caused climate change, mass extinctions, and threats we are creating to our own survival. (This part acts as an extension of Prothero’s last book Greenhouse of the Dinosaurs, which I also reviewed.) Prothero relaxes into a more personal writing style here, coloring the stories with personal opinions and anecdotes that are relatively thinner elsewhere in the book.

I was particularly interested in Prothero’s chapter on mass extin

Book Review: Catastrophes! | Wired Science | Wired.com

Amazon.com: Catastrophes!: Earthquakes, Tsunamis, Tornadoes, and Other Earth-Shattering Disasters

Devastating natural disasters have profoundly shaped human history, leaving us with a respect for the mighty power of the earth—and a humbling view of our future. Paleontologist and geologist Donald R. Prothero tells the harrowing human stories behind these catastrophic events.

Prothero describes in gripping detail some of the most important natural disasters in history:

• the New Madrid, Missouri, earthquakes of 1811–1812 that caused church bells to ring in Boston• the 2004 Indian Ocean tsunami that killed more than 230,000 people• the massive volcanic eruptions of Krakatau, Mount Tambora, Mount Vesuvius, Mount St. Helens, and Nevado del Ruiz

His clear and straightforward explanations of the forces that caused these disasters accompany gut-wrenching accounts of terrifying human experiences and a staggering loss of human life.

Floods that wash out whole regions, earthquakes that level a single country, hurricanes that destroy everything in their path—all are here to remind us of how little control we have over the natural world. Dramatic photographs and eyewitness accounts recall the devastation wrought by these events, and the people—both heroes and fools—that are caught up in the earth’s relentless forces.

Eerie, fascinating, and often moving, these tales of geologic history and human fortitude and folly will stay with you long after you put the book down.

Amazon.com: Catastrophes!: Earthquakes, Tsunamis, Tornadoes, and Other Earth-Shattering Disasters (9780801896927): Donald R. Prothero: Books

China Demands U.S. Taxpayers Clean Up Its Air – Forbes

Posted by on January 28, 2013 Comments Off

Now Beijing wants even more dough.  The Doha conference produced one advance for climate activists by establishing the principle that developed nations have a responsibility for compensating poorer ones for damage due to climate change.  The rich had previously agreed to provide assistance for clean energy and other purposes but had not acknowledged an obligation for fixing the changing climate.

That changed in Doha.  “It is a breakthrough,” said Martin Khor of the South Centre, an organization of 52 developing states, to the BBC.  “The term Loss and Damage is in the text—this is a huge step in principle.  Next comes the fight for cash.”

China Demands U.S. Taxpayers Clean Up Its Air – Forbes

At Davos, Crisis Is the New Normal – NYTimes.com

Posted by on January 23, 2013 Comments Off

Crisis, in short, is the new normal.

And while the business community determinedly seeks opportunity in troubled times, even many an entrepreneur views the years since the financial crisis of 2008 as what Rich Lesser, the new chief executive of the Boston Consulting Group, called “a higher period of turbulence and uncertainty in the global economy than we have experienced in a very long time.”

The days in which “quants” and algorithms reigned supreme are gone, their increasingly untrackable results having helped the financial system spin out of control in 2008 and 2009. The heady triumph of capitalism after 1989 is also a distant memory, although its chief effect — that capital went global — remains a driving force of our age.

But global capital does not solve big world issues: debt and financial crisis, political paralysis or gridlock, the transformative effects of the digital revolution, climate change, resource shortages, shifting demographics.

At Davos, Crisis Is the New Normal – NYTimes.com

“a higher period of turbulence and uncertainty in the global economy than we have experienced in a very long time.”

I have been thinking more and more that this type of period should last forever, or until a big crash is allowed to happen. When a positive feedback loop system goes from a pre-collapse state to a collapse state, and the collapse state is heavily suppressed, then new feedback will continue to build on an unstable base. The only way to fix the problem is through a massive crash, then start over.

Since just about everybody wants no crash, the West will continue to remain in an unstable state just like Japan.

Global Warming: The Greatest Threat To Arab Economies? | Economy Watch

Posted by on January 19, 2013 Comments Off

The World Bank has produced a massive 450 page report on the potentially devastating impact climate change is likely to have on Arab countries. This matters to everyone and not just from the standpoint that we should all empathize with and seek to relief suffering.

The harsher the conditions get, the more restive and radical the populations of Arab states are likely to become, with hugely destabilizing consequences for all of us.

Global Warming: The Greatest Threat To Arab Economies? | Economy Watch

Armageddon 2.0 | Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists

Posted by on December 5, 2012 Comments Off

The article blows off Armageddon 1.0 – nuclear war and skips on to version 2.0: Emerging diseases, climate change and computer hacking. You can see modern liberalism at work in this list. The systemic risk from other societies is incidental. Yes, inconsiderate societies can cause problems through CO2 emissions or rogue hackers, but it is not possible that they would seek something more sinister, like nuclear attack. So when Russia, China or Iran threaten us with real harm, they don’t really mean it. I’m wondering if I should put modern liberalism at the front of the list of emerging risks?

Emerging diseases. The influenza pandemic of 2009 is a case in point. Because of rising prosperity and travel, the world has grown more conducive to a destructive flu virus in recent years, many public health officials believe. Most people probably remember 2009 as a time when health officials overreacted. But in truth, the 2009 virus came from nowhere, and by the time it reached the radar screens of health officials, it was already well on its way to spreading far and wide.

“H1N1 caught us all with our pants down,” …

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Climate change. Climate is another potentially urgent risk. …

…

Computer hacking. The computer industry has already made it possible for computers to handle a variety of tasks without human intervention. …

Armgeddon 2.0 | Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists

Climate change seen as factor in Mayan collapse in Central America – UPI.com

Posted by on November 13, 2012 Comments Off

Unusually high rainfall allowed a population boom between 440 and 660 A.D., but subsequent dry conditions between 660 and 1000 A.D. aligns with known periods of political instability in the Mayan civilization, Kennett theorizes.

The dry climate conditions, which may have included extended periods of drought, may have hastened the Maya collapse, the researchers say.

Climate change seen as factor in Mayan collapse in Central America – UPI.com

Climate Change Threat To National Security – Science News – redOrbit

Posted by on November 12, 2012 Comments Off

Food shortages, natural disasters, energy supply issues and the spread of epidemics are some of the possible climate-related perils the U.S. military needs to prepare to deal with, the National Academies claim in a new report released Friday.

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Broder says the report warns of “clusters of apparently unrelated events exacerbated by a warming climate will create more frequent but unpredictable crises in water supplies, food markets, energy supply chains and public health systems… Climate-driven crises could lead to internal instability or international conflict and might force the United States to provide humanitarian assistance or, in some cases, military force to protect vital energy, economic or other interests.”

Climate Change Threat To National Security – Science News – redOrbit

Thanks Climate Change: Sea-Level Rise Could End South China Sea Spat – The Diplomat

Posted by on November 9, 2012 Comments Off

Overlapping claims to islands and reefs in the South China Sea have increased tensions. They may all soon be rendered obsolete.

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… Yet, most of the atolls, banks and islands that make up the SCS are merely a few inches or feet above sea level at high tide.  Often times, they flood over during typhoon season and have to be evacuated.  With environmental predictions of sea-level rise on the order of 3 to 6 feet during the remainder of the 21st century, what would happen if the “dry” areas of the SCS became submerged?

Thanks Climate Change: Sea-Level Rise Could End South China Sea Spat – The Diplomat

Rise of China, Brazil Point to Creation of New World Order – World Report

Posted by on October 16, 2012 Comments Off

The above by all means is not an exhaustive list of events and issues causing the global tectonic plates to shift—that particular list is long, interdependent, and ultimately unpredictable. The only thing we know is that amidst the reverberating vibrations from the last chaotic five years we are still short on workable solutions while our common systems—be they global or country-based (such as financial and banking systems; healthcare costs and delivery systems; management of resources like oil, gas, water, and food; climate change; and the political dysfunction of governments)—are failing to deliver effective results, policy, and governance.

Western-style free markets are especially experiencing a systemic collapse and these economic models are not delivering as they once did. The free market system outwardly, at least, seems like it is failing the majority of the people in what is increasingly their growing hour of need. These and a myriad of other such issues have all caused global economic, financial, political, and social tsunamis and the magnitude and impact of these events and crisis has left relatively few national arenas unaffected—be it security in old age, long-term youth joblessness, or energy shortages. This has exposed the combustive fissure of income disparity and has lit a match that has instigated class wars on the wealthy and a sudden proliferation of technocratic unelected governments in the West.

Rise of China, Brazil Point to Creation of New World Order – World Report (usnews.com)

Looking at the big picture. The international order that we have known since the end of World War II is coming to an end. The western economic model is experiencing a systemic collapse. We have entered a period of great instability after a long period of relative stability.

What could go wrong?