Tag Archives: Collapse

Senkaku Islands are “core interest” of China, Xi tells Obama | GlobalPost

Posted by on June 12, 2013 Comments Off

Chinese President Xi Jinping told U.S. President Barack Obama during their recent talks in California that the Japanese-administered Senkaku Islands in the East China Sea are a “core interest” of China, a source close to U.S.-China ties said Tuesday.

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Xi’s remarks during his first summit with Obama indicate that Beijing wants Washington to prod Tokyo to make concessions to ease tensions over the issue, political analysts said.

Senkaku Islands are “core interest” of China, Xi tells Obama | GlobalPost

China has made clear in the past that it is willing to go to war over its core interests. Japan’s strategy seems to be less confrontational, but nevertheless it will not acquiesce to China’s demands. The situation is slowly ratcheting upward toward a forceful confrontation since neither will step backward.

Given that China’s economy is starting to lose steam, domestic instability could start increasing from its current level of instability. Chinese leaders have to be worried about this. Additionally, this domestic instability could push China to be more forceful over the Senkaku Islands reducing the time to direct conflict with Japan. A Chinese think tank thinks a military clash is a clear possibility.

Chinese think tank warns of military clashes with Japan – The Economic Times

It warned that a military clash with Japan could happen if the dispute escalates, saying the confrontation between the two countries over disputed Diaoyu Islands in East China Sea may extend from the sea to the air.

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He warned that this is a dangerous game that could spiral out of control and finally hurt the US.

Chinese think tank warns of military clashes with Japan – The Economic Times

In my About page I heavily discuss the way things collapse. When a system reaches a point where a small event can have a large impact, then the system has reached a pre-collapse state or tipping point. Once it reaches this point then it’s probably too late. Either the system has to make fundamental changes or it will eventually collapse. The most likely outcome is collapse.

In the case of the Senkaku Islands conflict one can see that it is headed for collapse – war. The only real issue is timing, which brings us to Israel.

If the conflict in the Middle East between Israel and Syria escalates to the point where Israel uses nuclear weapons, then that crosses a red line. That represents a first use of nuclear weapons by the US. It doesn’t matter that the US didn’t actually use them. It is enough that Israel uses them. Now China (and Russia too) has an excuse for a preemptive nuclear strike on the US.

Everybody knows that China and Russia would never attack the US unprovoked because of retaliation. However, this is a ground-zero error. You do not know what Chinese and Russian leaders are thinking. You do not know if they are willing to sustain heavy losses in order to get rid of the US. And thanks to recent US nuclear reductions, an enemy (China and Russia) willing to accept heavy losses can defeat the US.

 

Egypt’s Looming Economic Ruin :: Middle East Forum

Posted by on June 9, 2013 Comments Off

Goldman contends that Egypt’s unfixable economy will inexorably turn it into a failed state. Notwithstanding the existence of an educated, urbanized, and sophisticated class, Egypt remains an essentially pre-modern society with a 45% literacy rate and a dysfunctional higher education system unable to produce a competent labor pool to meet the demands of a globalized economy.

Over the past decade, Cairo’s annual imports soared from $10 billion to $60 billion, mainly due to rising food prices. (Although over 70 percent of Egyptians are involved in farming, the country imports half of its food consumption). While these economic woes began on Mubarak’s watch, the collapse of tourism and other economic problems under the Muslim Brotherhood regime has accelerated Egypt’s economic decline.

Egypt’s Looming Economic Ruin :: Middle East Forum

Jordan in danger of collapse

Posted by on June 5, 2013 Comments Off

U.S. F-16 combat aircraft and Patriot missile defense batteries sent to Jordan on a military exercise may remain in the country longer amid growing U.S. concerns that the pro-Western country could collapse.

Secretary of State John Kerry said yesterday that neighboring Syria is at risk of “complete and total implosion,” and three U.S. officials said that Jordan’s pro-Western monarchy, already suffering economic and political strains, may buckle under the added pressure of more than 1.3 million Syrian refugees. The three officials asked not to be identified to discuss internal and international deliberations.

U.S. Open to Keeping Arms in Jordan Amid Syria War Instability – Businessweek

Is Chairman of Joint Chiefs of Staff Aiding and Abetting the Enemy? | Walid Shoebat

Posted by on June 1, 2013 Comments Off

Lt. Col. Matthew Dooley – a highly decorated combat commander – was fired from his position by General Martin Dempsey, Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, for teaching a course designed to educate soldiers about how to fight back against Islam and Jihad. In essence, Dooley was right on at least two very basic fronts. 1.) He was helping soldiers defend their nation against the biggest threat it faces and 2.) He was arming them with knowledge to protect themselves in the battle.

As such, Dempsey is knowingly putting the men under his command in danger; this is a very serious offense that highlights everything a General should not be. He is supposed to put the safety of his men above himself and certainly above his own career.

This incident epitomizes the serious trouble this country is in unless Obama and his thugs are impeached, tried, convicted, and removed from power. The Benghazi scandal highlights the dangers of our failed and foolish security policies. The administration’s failure to protect Americans there is a model Dempsey appears to have adopted in firing Dooley.

Is Chairman of Joint Chiefs of Staff Aiding and Abetting the Enemy? | Walid Shoebat

Something is rotten in Kansas. It’s obvious that General Martin Dempsey is the real problem here. He is so blind that this indicates there are serious problems in national security that go far beyond this case. Our military leadership is just not able to assess national security threats properly. And this is putting you in danger.

It’s not a matter of simply assuming that now there is an increased susceptibility to the threat of terrorism. While true, the threat of terrorism is not important enough to ever be our central focus. National security in terms of a major war should always be our central focus. In my article about how societies collapse, I point out that a collapse in one area of society probably means big problems in other areas too. That’s because when a society experiences stability for a long period of time then problems start silently growing and spreading into all corners of society. After a long period of stability then cracks (problems) start to show up and one area may collapse. However, problems have spread into other areas that are not easy to see. The collapse of 9/11 was an indication that big national security issues existed. At that time everyone focused on the problem of terrorism, but they should have also focused on a bigger issue – serious leadership issues have put the country in grave danger. In the article titled, General Failure, the author discusses how we have ended up with serious problems in terms of our military leadership.

9/11 was the warning collapse or shock about national security. This interesting video suggests that 9/11 was a prophetic warning of worse things to come: God’s Judgement on America Revealed. The financial collapse of 2008 probably means big national security problems exist too. The firing of Lt. Col. Matthew Dooley by General Martin Dempsey is another indication that serious and fundamental national securities issues exist to the point where the US is in grave danger. Lt. Col. Matthew Dooley deserved a promotion for excellent service, yet he got fired instead. You should be very worried about the kind of thinking that caused this.

I have pointed out in the past that the way we think about nuclear wars is wrong. The ability to retaliate one time is not enough because the enemy leaders can survive this. One needs the ability to retaliate many times over many years. Currently, the US nuclear arsenal is in such a deplorable state that the US is in danger of a preemptive nuclear strike from Russia and China given the right circumstances. This is where bad military and civilian leadership have brought us after so many years of relative stability.

Here is a little more background information on Lt. Col. Matthew Dooley.

PLA review warns ‘strategic uncertainties’ loom large for China | South China Morning Post

Posted by on May 29, 2013 Comments Off

A PLA think tank yesterday issued a report warning that the nation faces increasing “strategic pressure” for the first time since the 1990s collapse of the communist bloc, with the Asia-Pacific region now a “new global centre” for “geopolitical, economic and military competition”.

Released by the Centre for National Defence Policy (CNDP), a part of the PLA’s Academy of Military Sciences, The Strategic Review 2012 says that “big powers have intensified their gaming for regional dominance”.

According to Xinhua, the review states: “Amid strategic competition among the big powers, the fierce oceanic competition and frequent regional conflicts, the complexity, sensitivity and uncertainty of China’s security environment loom large.”

PLA review warns ‘strategic uncertainties’ loom large for China | South China Morning Post

The World is Entering a Pre-Collapse State

Posted by on May 21, 2013 Comments Off

Israel and Syria have entered a state where only a small event will send them into a major war against each other. These are two civilizations, each backed by a major power, going to war. This will be huge. We could be looking at a massive missile attack on Israeli cities. The existence of Israel could be threatened. Also, we could be looking at an Israeli nuclear response. At this point, regionally we are looking at the possibility of total collapse. That means when the dust settles the region will look completely different. One side will be wiped out.

If Israel is the victor, then there is the possibility of a great-power war. This suggests that the world has entered a pre-collapse state as well.

Syria and Hizballah, flushed with the success of breaking the rebel hold on the strategic town of al Qusayr, Sunday, May 19, are making no secret of their plans for the “great confrontation,” i.e. military confrontaiton with  Israel after they win the Syrian civil war.  Israel’s military leaders are taking with the utmost seriousness the words of Ibrahim al-Amin, editor of the Hizballah organ Al Akhbar, and a close buddy of Syrian president Bashar Assad, who wrote Monday:

“The rope is taut. It is taut to the limit. Anyone at either end [Israel at one end, Syrian and Hizballah, at the other] need only flex a finger and it will break, and the great confrontation will take place. This is neither a threat, nor an exaggeration or interpretation. This is the situation on the enemy’s northern front. Now means today; it means this hour,” al-Amin wrote.

After the al Qusayr victory, Syria and Hizballah plan war on Israel

There are already signs that the American Empire is cracking. The next step is collapse – war.

America Next: End of the World As We Knew It – Steve Clemons – The Atlantic

In the case of the United States — which has been indisputably the reigning global superpower for six decades — there are signs — ranging from the tumult in the Middle East to a humiliating war in Afghanistan to a downgrade of US sovereign debt — that America is at a key inflection point in its history and that the US network of global control (aka, “empire”) is disintegrating.

America Next: End of the World As We Knew It – Steve Clemons – The Atlantic

Schiff: 2/3 of America to Lose Everything Because of This Crisis

Posted by on April 29, 2013 Comments Off

“I think we are heading for a worse economic crisis than we had in 2007,” Schiff said.  “You’re going to have a collapse in the dollar…a huge spike in interest rates… and our whole economy, which is built on the foundation of cheap money, is going to topple when you pull the rug out from under it.”

Schiff says that, despite “phony” signs of an economic recovery, the cancer destroying America stems from a lethal concoction of our $16 trillion federal debt and the Fed’s never ending money printing.

Money Morning

In 2006 Peter Schiff tells over 1000 mortgage brokers they are about to be out of jobs. Watch how he completely nails the coming real estate/mortgage debacle before anyone else even realized it was coming.

See the rest of the parts in this video series here: Predicting the Economic Mess in 2008 | 1913 Intel

Korean Unification: Do Not Be Surprised If It Comes Soon – Forbes

Posted by on April 16, 2013 Comments Off

The most significant geopolitical events of the past half century have been unanticipated. Not that we did not expect them, but they were supposed to happen in the distant future, not now.  The North Korean regime could collapse in the same unexpected way, leaving shocked politicians, diplomats, and pundits to fend with its consequences.

While it is comforting to believe that predictable rational calculation and self interest determine the course of human events, the timing of the most significant changes in the world order is  heavily influenced by chance, personalities, emotions, and miscalculations. We expect the two Koreas to muddle along in a shaky equilibrium that will result in the end of  the Hermit Kingdom in the distant future. A collapse of the North Korean regime in the near term would send pundits in vain searches of past writings for hints they saw it coming.

Korean Unification: Do Not Be Surprised If It Comes Soon – Forbes

Busting out all over: Black mob violence

Posted by on April 12, 2013 Comments Off

Welcome to the new normal: Large-scale black mob violence is busting out in Philadelphia, Chicago, Utica, Jacksonville, St. Louis, Wilmington (Delaware), Greenville (South Carolina), Grand Rapids, Peoria, Springfield (Ohio), Newark, Boston and Brooklyn.

All in the last three weeks.

Police say they are baffled. Others say it is a regular meteorological event: “Large crowds and fights are not uncommon in the city in the warm weather,” said the ABC affiliate in Philadelphia.

Busting out all over: Black mob violence

I am wondering if something more is going on. The prediction below centers the problem around 2020. Maybe this is an early sign of worse problems to come.

Mathematicians Predict the Future With Data From the Past | Wired Enterprise | Wired.com

They use math rather than mere language, and according to Turchin, the prognosis isn’t that far removed from the empire-crushing predictions laid down by Hari Seldon in the Foundation saga. Unless something changes, he says, we’re due for a wave of widespread violence in about 2020, including riots and terrorism.

Mathematicians Predict the Future With Data From the Past | Wired Enterprise | Wired.com

Riots follow a feedback-loop process just like forests and societies in general. The riot represents a collapse. One way to disrupt these types of collapses is to introduce smaller collapses more often. That means the police need to bust people for smaller things so the bigger things don’t happen.

The prediction centering around 2020 means there is a bigger process going on independent from individual riots. Overall stability since 1945 is the driving force here. This suggests that policing strategies will eventually start failing, and things will get worse.

How Riots Behave Like Forest Fires : Discovery News

Kristian Skrede Gleditsch, a professor of government at the University of Essex in the United Kingdom, told Discovery News that the geography of riots and how they spread seem to show certain patterns — patterns similar to those followed by wildfires.

“There’s some evidence suggesting that … the severity of riots is inversely proportional to their frequency,” he said. “It’s kind of like a forest fire. Most fires go out very quickly, but a few become catastrophic. Once they reach a certain magnitude, they can become self-sustaining and very hard to contain.”

How Riots Behave Like Forest Fires : Discovery News

The article below talks about the broken window theory. This is just another way of saying that bad behavior gets worse when trivial things are ignored. So bad behavior feeds on itself – another positive feedback-loop process. 

The spread of disorder – a repost in wake of London’s riot cleanup : Not Exactly Rocket Science

The clean-up operation was a great move – a positive note in an otherwise depressing week and a chance for a beleagured capital to come together and reclaim its sense of community. But the act of cleaning away the preceding day’s damage was also important. To explain why, I’m reposting this piece from a few years back about a Dutch study which showed that signs of disorder only breed more disorder. To clarify, this is in no way an attempt to explain the psychology of the riots themselves; it simply suggests another reason why the clean-up operation was a smart move.

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All in all, the suite of experiments, all in a realistic setting, provide powerful evidence that the Broken Windows Theory is valid and all of Keiser’s results were statistically significant. Small, petty signs of disorder can indeed turn people away from the straight and narrow. His message to police and policy-makers is stark – it is worth spending time on small and seemingly trivial interventions, to prevent disorder from spreading and escalating.

The spread of disorder – a repost in wake of London’s riot cleanup : Not Exactly Rocket Science

Mathematicians Predict the Future With Data From the Past | Wired Enterprise | Wired.com

Posted by on April 11, 2013 Comments Off

These academics have the same goals as other historians — “We start with questions that historians have asked for all of history,” Turchin says. “For example: Why do civilizations collapse?” — but they seek to answer these questions quite differently. They use math rather than mere language, and according to Turchin, the prognosis isn’t that far removed from the empire-crushing predictions laid down by Hari Seldon in the Foundation saga. Unless something changes, he says, we’re due for a wave of widespread violence in about 2020, including riots and terrorism.

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What Turchin and his colleagues have found is a pattern of social instability. It applies to all agrarian states for which records are available, including Ancient Rome, Dynastic China, Medieval England, France, Russia, and, yes, the United States. Basically, the data shows 100 year waves of instability, and superimposed on each wave — which Turchin calls the “Secular Cycle” — there’s typically an additional 50-year cycle of widespread political violence. The 50-year cycles aren’t universal — they don’t appear in China, for instance. But they do appear in the United States.

The 100-year Secular Cycles, Turchin believes, are caused by longer-term demographic trends. They occur when a population grows beyond its capacity to be productive, resulting in falling wages, a disproportionately large number of young people in the population, and increased state spending deficits. But there’s a more important factor, one that better predicts instability than population growth. Turchin calls it “elite overproduction.” This refers to a growing class of elites who are competing for a limited number of elite positions, such as political appointments. These conflicts, Turchin says, can destabilize the state.

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Turchin takes pains to emphasize that the cycles are not the result of iron-clad rules of history, but of feedback loops — just like in ecology. “In a predator-prey cycle, such as mice and weasels or hares and lynx, the reason why populations go through periodic booms and busts has nothing to do with any external clocks,” he writes. “As mice become abundant, weasels breed like crazy and multiply. Then they eat down most of the mice and starve to death themselves, at which point the few surviving mice begin breeding like crazy and the cycle repeats.”

Mathematicians Predict the Future With Data From the Past | Wired Enterprise | Wired.com

The problem with the analysis as presented in the story is that it only gives a point in time – 2020 – instead of a range for the next crisis. The cycles of crisis are not going to be exactly 100 years or 50 years. Those periods more likely represent midpoints of crises in the past, but there is a range period of increased possibility of crisis surrounding the midpoints. The article doesn’t give us any information on this. Looking at the chart in the article, it looks like about a 5 to 10 year range on either side of the midpoint. That means the 2020 crisis date could mean problems begin in 2010 and go to 2030.