Commercial Real Estate’s Coming $1.4 Trillion Crisis

Posted by Matt in February 12th, 2010 | 1 comment

Published in Economy, Financial, Alarm Bell, Commercial Loans, Commercial Real Estate, Commerical Real Estate, Commerical Real Estate Crisis, Congressional Oversight, Financial Crisis, Oversight Panel, Real Estate Loans, Small Businesses, Trillion

In a report released Thursday, the Congressional Oversight Panel sounded the alarm bell about a potential crisis involving $1.4 trillion in commercial real estate loans that will come due between now and 2014. The panel warns that the “financial crisis will not end” because of the “potential impact that breakdown in those markets could have [...]

An Insider’s View of the Real Estate Train Wreck

Posted by Matt in January 25th, 2010 | no comment

Published in Economy, Financial, Financial Crisis, U.S., Andy Miller, Apartment Communities, Collapse, Commercial Real Estate, CommercialRealEstate, Critical Sector, Critical Topic, Estate Entrepreneur, Faculty Member, Financial Institutions, Financial Intelligence, Individual Investors, Intervie, Investment Strategies, John Mauldin, Latter Category, Office Buildings, Peer Group, Periodic Interviews, Real Estate Bubble, Real Estate Loans, RealEstate, Research Investment, Research Summit, Rousing Success, S Real Estate, Train Wreck

The first time I spoke with real estate entrepreneur Andy Miller was in late 2007, when I asked him to serve on the faculty of a Casey Research Summit. As John Mauldin, a former faculty member himself, knows, we’re very selective with our speakers. And there was no one in the nation I wanted more [...]

Why This Real Estate Bust Is Different – BusinessWeek

Posted by Matt in November 9th, 2009 | no comment

Published in Economy, Financial, 1960s, Apex, Billionaire, Blowup, Boom And Bust, Businessweek, Bust Cycle, Casualty, Commercial Real Estate, CommercialRealEstate, Downturn, Elkin, Fraud, Gold, Goldman, Housing Market, Investor, Property Price Index, RealEstate, Stratospheric Prices, Trillion, Unrealistic Assumptions, Wilbur Ross

Unrealistic assumptions, layers of investors, sky-high prices, and possible fraud will make it hard to clean up the mess in commercial real estate
It would be easy to write off this blowup as just another casualty in the regular boom-and-bust cycle of the $6.4 trillion commercial real estate market. But the Goldman deal, with its unrealistic [...]

Second Wave Of The Credit Crisis: Collapsing Commercial Real Estate

Posted by Matt in August 23rd, 2009 | no comment

Published in Economy, Business Credit, Collision Course, Commercial Real Estate, Credit Crisis, Economy, Editorials, Insolvency, Investor, New Housing Starts, Oncoming Locomotive, Political Cartoons, Polls, Second Wave, Stock Market, Uptick

The recent uptick in home sales, green shoots of new housing starts and rebounding stock market may suggest that the long-awaited turn in the U.S. economy is here.
But is this daylight at the end of the tunnel or the beam of an oncoming locomotive of commercial real estate insolvency coming down the tracks on a [...]

Commercial Real Estate – Disaster looms in yet another asset class

Posted by Matt in May 2nd, 2009 | no comment

Published in Economy, Asset Class, Bankruptcy, Borrowers, Commercial Mortgages, Commercial Real Estate, Construction Firms, Disaster, Industry Foresight, Loans, Mature, Refinancing, Residential Property, Risk, Shock Wave, Value Ratios

The second shock wave is that GGP’s bankruptcy underlines a pervasive refinancing risk for the industry. Foresight Analytics, a research firm, reckons that $594 billion of commercial mortgages will mature in America alone between 2009 and 2011. Many of these borrowers will have a big problem when their loans mature. Just as in residential property, [...]

Not Another Real-Estate Crisis: Commercial Mortgages Next?

Posted by Matt in May 1st, 2009 | no comment

Published in Economy, Financial, Billions Of Dollars, Collapse, Commercial Mortgages, Commercial Real Estate, Commercial Real Estate Market, Economy, Estimates, Financial Crisis, Financial Meltdown, Global Financial Crisis, Housing Market, Loan Conditions, Real Estate Market, Vicious Cycle, Woes

Two years after fissures in the residential housing market gave way to a national collapse of home prices and sales, experts warn the next shoe to drop is the commercial real-estate market, bringing more woes to the battered economy.
Thousands of commercial mortgages valued at hundreds of billions of dollars are approaching a renewal date. [...]

The Looming Crisis in Commercial Real Estate

Posted by Matt in April 22nd, 2009 | no comment

Published in Economy, Borrowers, Commercial Loans, Commercial Real Estate, Commerical Real Estate, Credit Crunch, Deutsche Bank, Financial Crisis, Global Financial Crisis, Losses, Mortgages, Real Estate Loans, Refinancing, Residential Mortgage, Shopping Centers, Time Bomb, Trillion, Two Thirds

The credit crunch has thus far focused on the residential mortgage mess. But with $1.3 trillion in loans to shopping centers and other commercial properties coming due between now and 2013, another time bomb is ticking. In a report scheduled for release on Wednesday, Deutsche Bank estimates that at least half the loans — and [...]

Economy Booming Again? Seriously?

Posted by Matt in April 17th, 2009 | no comment

Published in Economy, U.S., Cnbc, Commercial Real Estate, Credit Crisis, Credit Losses, Deflation, Estate Arena, Estate Business, Financial Crisis, Fire Sale, General Growth Properties, Global Credit, Global Financial Crisis, International Monetary Fund, International Monetary Fund Imf, Inventory Levels, Mall Operator, Meltdown, Moratoriums, Office Tenants, Pundit, Signs Of Life, Temporary State

Here’s why the economy is NOT going to be booming again real soon:
1. We’ve only acknowledged $1.29 trillion of the $4 trillion in total global credit losses to date.
2. Foreclosure filings hit a new record high of 341,000 in March, 2009.
3. The COMMERCIAL real estate business is in full-scale meltdown mode.
4. The consumer is still [...]

Is That A Recovery We See?

Posted by Matt in April 10th, 2009 | 1 comment

Published in Economy, Bad Stuff, Bloomberg, Centex, Commercial Real Estate, Corporate Earnings, Earnings Estimates, Earnings Surprises, Financial Crisis, Financial Sector, Financial Stocks, Global Financial Crisis, Great Depression, Mid 90s, Months Of The Year, Old Saw, Pulte Homes, Recession, Short Answer, Sidelines, Slow Slide, Stock Market, Time Readers

The short answer is no. Find out about all the problems we face below.
1. There is a shadow inventory of homes waiting on the sidelines.
2. Commercial real estate starts a long, slow slide.
3. P/E ratios are projected to soon go negative.
4. We should expect to see earnings surprises that could derail the stock market.
5. Historical [...]