Geopolitics: The Three E’s of War

Posted by Matt in June 10th, 2009 | no comment

Published in Geopolitical, War, Disintegration, Economic Dynamics, Economic Volatility, Ethnic Conflict, First-World-War, Foreign Policy Magazine, Gaza, Global Financial Crisis, Globalization, Harvard Professor, International Economy, Niall-Ferguson, Nuclear Umbrella, Nuclear Weapon, Regimes, Serious Trouble, Social Unrest, superpower, Syria Lebanon, Upheaval

Introduction
“Economic volatility, plus ethnic disintegration, plus an empire in decline: That combination is about the most lethal in geopolitics. We now have all three. The age of upheaval starts now.”
The above quote comes from the current edition (March/April 2009) of Foreign Policy magazine on page 58. The author had earlier explained how the three E’s described [...]

U.S. military report warns ’sudden collapse’ of Mexico is possible

Posted by Matt in January 13th, 2009 | 1 comment

Published in Americas, Mexico, Pakistan, Acute Problems, Bloodshed, Criminal Gangs, Disintegration, Drug Cartels, Failing States, infrastructure, Mexico, Military Report, Nationalities, Nightmares, Operating Environment, Phenomenon, politicians, Rapid Collapse, Rapid Onset, Security Threats, Sudden Collapse, Tangle, Worldwide Security, Worst Case Scenarios, Yugoslavia

Mexico is one of two countries that “bear consideration for a rapid and sudden collapse,” according to a report by the U.S. Joint Forces Command on worldwide security threats.
The Mexican possibility may seem less likely, but the government, its politicians, police and judicial infrastructure are all under sustained assault and press by criminal gangs and [...]

The Next War of the World

Posted by Matt in December 23rd, 2008 | no comment

Published in Middle East, Niall Ferguson, War, Arabs, Conflagration, Conflict Zones, Disintegration, Drift, Economic Stabilization, Economic Volatility, Ethnic War, Extreme Violence, Gaza Strip, History Of The Twentieth Century, Muslim Populations, New War, Nightmare Scenario, Obvious Conclusion, Ramifications, Sectarian Tensions, War Of The World, West Bank, Western Europe, World War Iii

Three factors explain the timing and the location of the extreme violence of the twentieth century: ethnic disintegration, economic volatility, and empires in decline.
…
What about the future?
Today, one region displays in abundance all of the characteristics of the worst conflict zones of the twentieth century.
“The Middle East”
The obvious conclusion is that a new “war of [...]

Big Problems in Russia Starting in 2009

Posted by Matt in December 3rd, 2008 | no comment

Published in Economy, Russia, Assertions, Catastrophe, Collapse, Decent Words, Disintegration, Financial Crisis, Global Financial Crisis, Global Recession, Mismanagement, Modernization, Monopoly, Point Of No Return, Polices, Political Upheaval, Propaganda, Regime Collapse, Russian Economists, Russian Economy, Russian Language, scenarios, Single Solution, Social Unrest, Systemic Crisis

Experts see a very serious possibility of an abrupt collapse of the living standard and economic disintegration leading to social unrest, eventually followed by political upheaval.
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As Tayevsky put it, “There will not be a crisis in Russia. There will be something immeasurably worse. But decent words for what it will be have not yet been [...]

Will Russia Fall Apart?

Posted by Matt in October 17th, 2008 | no comment

Published in Russia, Array, Cohesion, Communication Lines, Disintegration, Distinct Possibility, Enormous Size, infrastructure, Kamchatka, kremlin, Lack Of Communication, Medvedev, Russia, Shrinking Population, Superpower Status

Russia’s enormous size, its lack of cultural cohesion, its sparse and fast shrinking population, its deficient infrastructure and lack of communication lines, are some of the factors that feed the disintegration pressures within Russia. Medvedev’s speech in Kamchatka showed just how worried the Kremlin is about the possibility of the country breaking apart.
It is paradoxical [...]

When the Kremlin Tried a Little Openness

Posted by Matt in May 18th, 2008 | no comment

Published in Russia, Bureau Chief, Chain Reaction, Communist Party, Cynicism, Disintegration, Dissolution, Gorbachev, kremlin, Memoirs, New York Times, Nuclear Chain Reaction, Openness, Raisa, Repression, Rigidity, Ringside Seat, Russians, Soviet Empire, Soviet Leader, Soviet Union

Still, it is worth recalling a time when a little openness flew out of control.
As a correspondent and bureau chief for The New York Times in Moscow in the late 1980s, I had a ringside seat to observe the slow disintegration of the Soviet Union under Mr. Gorbachev. The collapse of the Soviet empire and [...]

Russia and Rotating the U.S. Focus

Posted by Matt in April 1st, 2008 | 1 comment

Published in Russia, U.S., American Options, Baltic States, Commodity Prices, Disintegration, Energy Sector, European Influence, Former Soviet Union, George Friedman, Global Power, Hegemon, Internal Affairs, Islamic World, Jihadist, Military Posture, Military Resources, Rollback, Soviet Republics, Sphere Of Influence, Strategic Point, Stratfor

By George Friedman
For the past year, Stratfor has been focusing on what we see as the critical global geopolitical picture. As the U.S.-jihadist war has developed, it has absorbed American military resources dramatically. It is overstated to say that the United States lacks the capacity to intervene anywhere else in the world, but it is [...]