Here’s your happy thought of the day from SocGen strategist Albert Edwards:
Over the last 15 years most investors have refused to contemplate that events in the West are playing out in a similar fashion to Japan in the 1990s. But the latest inflation data out of both the US and eurozone should ram home the fact that we are now only one short recession away from Japanese-style outright deflation. Similarly, investors refuse to believe that equities can fall in an environment of rampant QE. They are wrong.Sponsored Ads
Basically, we’re so close to deflation, that all it will take is another downturn, and we’ll be toast.
Forget Greece, which is an “insignificant” economy, it is China that poses the biggest risk to the global economy, Marc Faber the editor and publisher of the Gloom, Boom and Doom report told CNBC on Friday.
“I think the biggest risk is actually China because if you look at Greece, it’s an insignificant economy,” Faber said on CNBC Asia’s “Capital Connection.” “Yes, they owe money, but the market knows that it’s bankrupt.”
Cuban delivers a similar dose of medicine in writing,
You would think traditional university educators would take notice. Beyond allowing some of their classes to be offered online, they haven’t. They won’t.
Its the ultimate Innovators Dilemma. They don’t believe they should change and they won’t. Until its too late. Just as CEOs push for that one more penny per share in EPS, University Presidents care about nothing but getting their endowments and revenues up. If it means saddling an entire generation with obscene amounts of school debt, they could care less. This is how they get their long term contracts and raises.
It’s just a matter o time until we see the same meltdown in traditional college education. Like the real estate industry, prices will rise until the market revolts. Then it will be too late. Students will stop taking out the loans traditional Universities expect them to. And when they do tuition will come down. And when prices come down Universities will have to cut costs beyond what they are able to.
They will have so many legacy costs, from tenured professors to construction projects to research they will be saddled with legacy costs and debt in much the same way the newspaper industry was. Which will all lead to a de-levering and a de-stabilization of the University system as we know it.
And it can’t happen fast enough.
The cards are all on the table. I actually think this projection of impending challenges, troubled times, and ultimately doom for selected institutions is fairly easy to make.
If you enjoy watching financial doom, then you are quite likely to really enjoy the rest of 2012. Right now, red flags are popping up all over the place. Corporate insiders are selling off stock like there is no tomorrow, major economies all over Europe continue to implode, the IMF is warning that the eurozone could actually break up and there are signs of trouble at major banks all over the planet. Unfortunately, it looks like the period of relative stability that global financial markets have been enjoying is about to come to an end. A whole host of problems that have been festering just below the surface are starting to manifest, and we are beginning to see the ingredients for a “perfect storm” start to come together. The greatest global debt bubble in human history is showing signs that it is getting ready to burst, and when that happens the consequences are going to be absolutely horrific. Hopefully we still have at least a little bit more time before the global financial system implodes, but at this point it doesn’t look like anything is going to be able to stop the chaos that is on the horizon.
The following are 22 red flags that indicate that very serious doom is coming for global financial markets….
#1 According to CNN, the level of selling by insiders at corporations listed on the S&P 500 is the highest that it has been in almost a decade. Do those insiders know something that the rest of us do not?
#2 Home prices in the United States have fallen for six months in a row and are now down 35 percent from the peak of the housing market. The last time that home prices in the U.S. were this low was back in 2002.
Economist Marc Faber is often gloomy and almost always contrarian. Yet his latest prediction on the world’s wealthy may be among his most frightening yet.
In an interview on CNBC and in his latest “Gloom, Boom & Doom Report,” Faber says that the diverging fortunes of the rich and the rest has become unsustainable. He says that while asset inflation and Fed stimulus of the past 30 years has benefited a lucky few – basically “those with assets” – continued money printing could lead to sudden and violent wealth destruction.
“Somewhere down the line we will have a massive wealth destruction that usually happens either through very high inflation or through social unrest or through war or a credit market collapse,” he told CNBC. “Maybe all of it will happen, but at different times.”
The Russian thinking on the missile shield is instructive. Russia helps Iran with its nuclear and missile programs, then immediately gets aggressively hostile when the west actually wants to protect itself. This is the same Iran who is threatening doom on Israel and America. This is the number one terror supporting country on the planet. What kind of country would back a country like Iran and then get aggressively hostile with the west?
I just have one thing to say: Get ready for nuclear war.
“By 2017-2018 we must be fully prepared, fully armed,” Medvedev said in televised comments, referring to his earlier threat to aim missiles at the U.S.-led NATO missile shield if no agreement is reached.
NATO has said it wants to cooperate with Russia on the missile shield, but the alliance has rejected Russia’s proposal to run it jointly.
Without a NATO-Russia cooperation deal, Medvedev has sought guarantees from the U.S. that any future missile defense is not aimed at Russia and threatened to retaliate if no such deal is negotiated.
Reuters is running a long report titled: INSIGHT – Japan slowly wakes up to doomsday debt risk.
Does it sound familiar?
Yes, because the media runs with this story time and time again.
Here’s the Economist from April of 2010.
Here’s Edward Chancellor in the FT, from November 2009.
In the meantime, here’s a look at Japanese 10-year yields.
Because past predictions of doom have not panned out, we are to assume that it will never happen, right? Wisdom and prudence mean that one must take these kinds of threats seriously. Sometimes it takes much longer for a prediction to pan out than you think.
… According to Kahlili, Ahmadinejad “believes that many of the signs of the Madhi’s return have emerged. Known as Hadiths, these signs include the invasion of Afghanistan, the bloodshed in Iraq, and the global economic meltdown.”
Islamic prophecy says chaos and war, famine and mass death will set the stage for the appearance of the Mahdi. What could such a prophecy signify, if not the aftermath of a nuclear war? “People like Ahmadinejad so completely believe that these conditions would hasten the return of the twelfth Imam [Madhi], that they were willing to foment universal war, chaos, and famine to bring it about.”
So Iran wants to hasten the return of the Mahdi by generating choas through miilions of deaths. Ayatollah Ali Khamenei is in spiritual contact with the Mahdi who directs him to continue their nuclear program at all cost. The nuclear program will specifically hasten the return of the Mahdi, says the spiritual Mahdi.
By continuing their nuclear program at all cost, Iran will almost certainly invite attack from Israel. At that point Iranian proxies – Syria, Hezbollah and Hamas – will be called up for action. The resulting massive attack on Israel will be aimed at the complete and total destruction of Israel. That means nobody is playing around. Syria’s full chemical arsenal will be used immediately from time zero – the start of the war. Not to mention hundreds of other missiles coming in from all directions. That is day one of the war.
Day two sees us monitoring nuclear fallout from what is left of Israel’s neighbors. All of Israel’s neighbors now cease to exist. This war will be henceforth known as The One Day War.
A couple of weeks later, Russian and Chinese leaders have a little meeting to discuss events in the Middle East. The west (Israel) attacked Iran for no apparent reason, then ended up obliterating millions of Arabs in the process. It certainly looks like the west crossed the line in the sand as drawn by Moscow. Moscow warned the west that interference in Iran or north Africa will bring on catastrophe far and wide. China has also threatened nuclear war over Iran. Now the west has interfered in both Iran and north Africa, and it has brought on millions of deaths in the process. The west didn’t cross the line. It ran as fast as it could and jumped as far over the line as possible.
At this point we get to see if Russia and China are bluffing about nuclear retaliation. However, any nuclear attack would not be immediate. They need time to prepare. They will most certainly target spring in order to avoid winter. If an attack comes, it will be sudden for no apparent reason. It will catch everybody (not you) off guard. Perhaps it would be prudent for you to plan for the worst and hope for the best.
On this website I am going to try to figure out precisely to the day when such an attack might take place. Not sure if I can do it, but I’m going to try. My Doomsday Calendar gives my best estimate at this time – Monday, May 6, 2013. Mondays in May have the highest probability for attack.
If America, Russia and China are taken out of the world equation, then that leaves Europe in charge. Now Iran only has to focus on Europe in order to facilitate the return of the Mahdi. If Iran can obliterate Europe, then that positions Islamic countries for a leading rolling in world affairs. Now the Mahdi can finally emerge to lead the world, minus a few billion people.
If America is obliterated in 2013 or 2014, then I would estimate that Europe will meet its demise around 2025. The emergence of the Mahdi occurs by 2030. Then we get to meet the Mahdi’s new buddy – Islamic Jesus. Finally, we all get to convert to Islam, take a mark in Arabic script (looks like 666) that says “In the Name of Allah” or die.
I’m getting depressed.
David Morris will be reviewing the 1st episode of the National Geographic “Doomsday Preppers” survival TV show on February 7. David Morris will be posting comments to the SecretsOfUrbanSurvival.com website during the show, then adding a full analysis and review, providing people with actionable survival information.
Austin, TX. (PRWEB) February 07, 2012
Survival and Preparedness goes mainstream on the National Geographic Channel, reveals David Morris a survival expert from Secrets of Urban Survival, by airing a new series on survival and preparedness called “Doomsday Preppers” that includes interviews with survivalists and preparedness minded people. With topics ranging from basic food and water storage, self defense, running cars off of wood instead of gas, gardening, survive in place skills, retreat building, bugging out, and more, David Morris a survival expert explains, “Doomsday Preppers” is a must see for people interested in preparing for survival.
David Morris the survival expert of Secrets of Urban Survival, warns viewers that just watching a survival show does not guarantee the viewer survival skills, just as watching UFC fights does not make the viewer a fighter. Survival tips and skills that are shown on the “Doomsday Preppers” National Geographic TV show David explains, will need to be analyzed to see if they should be part of a survival preparedness plan. David adds, then the skills should be practiced until they are second nature, to become effective in a real survival situation.
The National Geographic channel will be airing the “Doomsday Preppers” 1st episode on February 7th 2012 at 9pm EST, informs David Morris, then continues each Tuesday. David Morris says each show is an hour long and features 3 different people who are preparing for a disaster or an uncertain future. Secrets of Urban Survival expert David Morris, recommends that anyone who is into preparedness should watch the “Doomsday Preppers” show, and may even learn something from it that will increase their own preparedness.
The Secrets of Urban Survival expert David Morris says, the “Doomsday Preppers” National Geographic TV show explores the lives of otherwise ordinary Americans who are preparing for the end of the world as they know it. These people are unique in their beliefs, motivations, and strategies David Morris reveals. Preppers will do what is necessary to make sure they are prepared for any of life’s uncertainties, David adds.
National Geographic has gathered people from many different backgrounds, David from Secrets of Urban Survival explains, who all have their own prepping styles for the “Doomsday Preppers” show. The people that will be on the show David says have their own challenges and plans for the disaster they deem most likely to occur.
David Morris from Secrets of Urban Survival advises people to keep in mind that this National Geographic “Doomsday Preppers” show is television, so some parts may be a bit sensationalized, but should definitely be watched by anyone that knows preparedness is the means to survival. This is why David will be reviewing each show. Starting with the 1st episode of the “Doomsday Preppers,” David will be doing analysis and reviews after each show at SecretsOfUrbanSurvival.com, plus David will be commenting live on the website during the show.
The important thing about survival and preparedness TV shows, the Secrets of Urban Survival expert David Morris explains, is that the skills that they teach are next to useless until the people trying to acquire them take ownership of them, practice them, and make them their own. There are occasional stories about how people survive disasters by doing something that they saw on TV, explains David Morris, but the reason those stories make the news is because they are so rare, and someone who learns skills, practices them, and successfully applies them under stress is normal and not news worthy.
The Secrets of Urban Survival expert David Morris says people can learn a lot from other people’s preparedness efforts, which is one of the great things about a show like the National Geographic “Doomsday Preppers.” Survival expert David Morris developed Secrets of Urban Survival to provide information for people that are actively looking to learn important strategies for preparedness, and find out exactly how to prepare for survival.
There has not been one war between the major powers in over 60 years. Historians say this is unprecedented and call it the “the Long Peace.” It seems to suggest that we have entered a new era of declining war and more peace. If your view of looking into the future is through a rear-view mirror, then this historical analysis is great. But what about the rest of us?
Please watch this video titled, “The Mathematics of War”:
There is a mathematical process underlying conflicts and war. Attacks and wars precisely follow a power-law distribtion process. So what?
Well, power-law processes work through a feedback loop mechanism and exhibit self-organizing criticality. Periods of peace represent the time that tension can build. Longer periods of peace mean more tension can build. Eventually, the tension builds to the point where the system undergoes a phase change – collapse (war). What that means is that if one suppresses conflict and war, then eventually you will get one that is orders of magnitude (powers of 10) larger. So a period of unprecedented peace MUST be followed by a period of unprecedented war.
The Human Security Report, an annual study compiled by researchers at Simon Fraser University in Canada, spells out the changes since the end of World War II. In the 1950s, there was an average of just over six international wars being fought every year. In the new millennium, there has been an average of less than one. Even more remarkable, there has not been a single war between the major powers in more than 60 years. This is unprecedented. Historians call it “the Long Peace”.
Not only are there fewer international wars, they have become less deadly. The average war of the 1950s caused 20,000 battle deaths a year. In the past decade it’s fewer than 3000 per war.
But what of civil wars? The trend was ugly from the 1960s to the 1990s, when they trebled. A great many were proxy struggles by the superpowers. As soon as the Soviet Union gave up the fight, the Cold War ended and so did many civil wars. Their number halved from 1992 to 2003, when it reached 29. Last year there were 30 being waged.