Here’s your happy thought of the day from SocGen strategist Albert Edwards:
Over the last 15 years most investors have refused to contemplate that events in the West are playing out in a similar fashion to Japan in the 1990s. But the latest inflation data out of both the US and eurozone should ram home the fact that we are now only one short recession away from Japanese-style outright deflation. Similarly, investors refuse to believe that equities can fall in an environment of rampant QE. They are wrong.
Basically, we’re so close to deflation, that all it will take is another downturn, and we’ll be toast.
Tag Archives: Doom
ALBERT EDWARDS: The Party Is Over, The US Is Just One Recession Away From Japan-Style Doom – Business Insider
This theme has been seized upon most dramatically by the conservative author Jonathan Last, whose book What to Expect When No One’s Expecting created alarming headlines across America this week. He is not satisfied to warn of rising pension and health-care costs. “Declining populations have always followed or been followed by Very Bad Things. Disease. War. Economic stagnation or collapse. And these grim tidings from history may be in our future,” his first chapter warns. (He follows this by reassuring us that unlike the population-growth scaremongers of the 1970s, “I’m not selling doom.”)
What to Expect When No One’s Expecting: America’s Coming Demographic Disaster: Jonathan V. Last: 9781594036415: Amazon.com: Books
Look around you and think for a minute: Is America too crowded?
For years, we have been warned about the looming danger of overpopulation: people jostling for space on a planet that’s busting at the seams and running out of oil and food and land and everything else.
It’s all bunk. The “population bomb” never exploded. Instead, statistics from around the world make clear that since the 1970s, we’ve been facing exactly the opposite problem: people are having too few babies. Population growth has been slowing for two generations. The world’s population will peak, and then begin shrinking, within the next fifty years. In some countries, it’s already started. Japan, for instance, will be half its current size by the end of the century. In Italy, there are already more deaths than births every year. China’s One-Child Policy has left that country without enough women to marry its men, not enough young people to support the country’s elderly, and an impending population contraction that has the ruling class terrified.
And all of this is coming to America, too. In fact, it’s already here. Middle-class Americans have their own, informal one-child policy these days. And an alarming number of upscale professionals don’t even go that far—they have dogs, not kids. In fact, if it weren’t for the wave of immigration we experienced over the last thirty years, the United States would be on the verge of shrinking, too.
What happened? Everything about modern life—from Bugaboo strollers to insane college tuition to government regulations—has pushed Americans in a single direction, making it harder to have children. And making the people who do still want to have children feel like second-class citizens.
What to Expect When No One’s Expecting explains why the population implosion happened and how it is remaking culture, the economy, and politics both at home and around the world.
Because if America wants to continue to lead the world, we need to have more babies.
Having just finished this well-written and sobering look at fertility decline and the coming population implosion both here and abroad, I’m tempted to paraphrase Sir Edward Grey’s famous remark on the eve of the First World War: “The lamps are going out in maternity wards all over the world, and we shall not see them lit again in our lifetime…” Contrary to the worries of the overpopulation crowd, we’re simply not having enough babies, due to what the author describes as a “giant constellation” of factors — and the likely consequences of this global baby bust are grim.
Demographics can be a tricky subject to write about, and difficult to read about. But have no fear — Mr. Last lays out the facts and data about our demographic & fertility dilemma clearly and thoroughly (and in under 200 pages sans footnotes!); he teases out the implications of these facts judiciously; and he does it all with enough dark humor and interesting vignettes to make the demographic medicine go down easy. (One fascinating example: He notes that last year in Japan — a nation well-advanced in a demographic death spiral — consumers bought more adult diapers than diapers for babies, for the first time ever. Let that nugget sink in for a minute.) Mr. Last is clear-eyed about the probable consequences of population decline, and he does a fine job showing its likely effects on everything from the unsustainability of our entitlement programs to foreign policy to American economic growth and innovation — while always cautioning that Demography is not inevitably Destiny.
No doubt some will assume the author wants to pin blame on feminism, or on selfish women who sacrifice motherhood for careers. I would respectfully ask such persons to read the book with an open mind, because Mr. Last does no such thing. In fact, he goes out of his way to say that our birth dearth results not from some sinister anti-family conspiracy, but from a whole variety of causes, many of them unquestionable goods (e.g., the decline in infant mortality rates, the greater career opportunities available to women, even something as mundane as child car-seat laws). But as he notes, even net goods like these can come at a broader social cost.
Certainly, Mr. Last doesn’t shy away from discussing the real effects on fertility of things like the invention of the birth-control pill, or the rise of cohabitation and no-fault divorce (and their negative effect on marriage) — and he makes no secret of his own (conservative) views on these topics. But as another reviewer noted above, he scrupulously refrains from preaching on these matters. In fact, he’s even willing to highlight data suggesting, for example, that abortion might not reduce fertility rates nearly as much as you’d think. His intellectual honesty shines through on every page of the book.
Mr. Last concludes with a chilling observation: Our looming demographic crisis shows that after a century of trying, we have still not figured out “how to balance liberalism, modern economics, and family life.” Resolving this conundrum is a matter of utmost importance for America and for all nations in the 21st century. “What to Expect…” is a much-needed conversation-starter on this topic, and a lucid and engaging tour through our increasingly barren landscape (if you’ll pardon the pun!).
Forget Greece, which is an “insignificant” economy, it is China that poses the biggest risk to the global economy, Marc Faber the editor and publisher of the Gloom, Boom and Doom report told CNBC on Friday.
“I think the biggest risk is actually China because if you look at Greece, it’s an insignificant economy,” Faber said on CNBC Asia’s “Capital Connection.” “Yes, they owe money, but the market knows that it’s bankrupt.”
Cuban delivers a similar dose of medicine in writing,
You would think traditional university educators would take notice. Beyond allowing some of their classes to be offered online, they haven’t. They won’t.
Its the ultimate Innovators Dilemma. They don’t believe they should change and they won’t. Until its too late. Just as CEOs push for that one more penny per share in EPS, University Presidents care about nothing but getting their endowments and revenues up. If it means saddling an entire generation with obscene amounts of school debt, they could care less. This is how they get their long term contracts and raises.
It’s just a matter o time until we see the same meltdown in traditional college education. Like the real estate industry, prices will rise until the market revolts. Then it will be too late. Students will stop taking out the loans traditional Universities expect them to. And when they do tuition will come down. And when prices come down Universities will have to cut costs beyond what they are able to.
They will have so many legacy costs, from tenured professors to construction projects to research they will be saddled with legacy costs and debt in much the same way the newspaper industry was. Which will all lead to a de-levering and a de-stabilization of the University system as we know it.
And it can’t happen fast enough.
The cards are all on the table. I actually think this projection of impending challenges, troubled times, and ultimately doom for selected institutions is fairly easy to make.
If you enjoy watching financial doom, then you are quite likely to really enjoy the rest of 2012. Right now, red flags are popping up all over the place. Corporate insiders are selling off stock like there is no tomorrow, major economies all over Europe continue to implode, the IMF is warning that the eurozone could actually break up and there are signs of trouble at major banks all over the planet. Unfortunately, it looks like the period of relative stability that global financial markets have been enjoying is about to come to an end. A whole host of problems that have been festering just below the surface are starting to manifest, and we are beginning to see the ingredients for a “perfect storm” start to come together. The greatest global debt bubble in human history is showing signs that it is getting ready to burst, and when that happens the consequences are going to be absolutely horrific. Hopefully we still have at least a little bit more time before the global financial system implodes, but at this point it doesn’t look like anything is going to be able to stop the chaos that is on the horizon.
The following are 22 red flags that indicate that very serious doom is coming for global financial markets….
#1 According to CNN, the level of selling by insiders at corporations listed on the S&P 500 is the highest that it has been in almost a decade. Do those insiders know something that the rest of us do not?
#2 Home prices in the United States have fallen for six months in a row and are now down 35 percent from the peak of the housing market. The last time that home prices in the U.S. were this low was back in 2002.
The Russian thinking on the missile shield is instructive. Russia helps Iran with its nuclear and missile programs, then immediately gets aggressively hostile when the west actually wants to protect itself. This is the same Iran who is threatening doom on Israel and America. This is the number one terror supporting country on the planet. What kind of country would back a country like Iran and then get aggressively hostile with the west?
I just have one thing to say: Get ready for nuclear war.
“By 2017-2018 we must be fully prepared, fully armed,” Medvedev said in televised comments, referring to his earlier threat to aim missiles at the U.S.-led NATO missile shield if no agreement is reached.
NATO has said it wants to cooperate with Russia on the missile shield, but the alliance has rejected Russia’s proposal to run it jointly.
Without a NATO-Russia cooperation deal, Medvedev has sought guarantees from the U.S. that any future missile defense is not aimed at Russia and threatened to retaliate if no such deal is negotiated.
Reuters is running a long report titled: INSIGHT – Japan slowly wakes up to doomsday debt risk.
Does it sound familiar?
Yes, because the media runs with this story time and time again.
Here’s the Economist from April of 2010.
Here’s Edward Chancellor in the FT, from November 2009.
In the meantime, here’s a look at Japanese 10-year yields.
Because past predictions of doom have not panned out, we are to assume that it will never happen, right? Wisdom and prudence mean that one must take these kinds of threats seriously. Sometimes it takes much longer for a prediction to pan out than you think.
… According to Kahlili, Ahmadinejad “believes that many of the signs of the Madhi’s return have emerged. Known as Hadiths, these signs include the invasion of Afghanistan, the bloodshed in Iraq, and the global economic meltdown.”
Islamic prophecy says chaos and war, famine and mass death will set the stage for the appearance of the Mahdi. What could such a prophecy signify, if not the aftermath of a nuclear war? “People like Ahmadinejad so completely believe that these conditions would hasten the return of the twelfth Imam [Madhi], that they were willing to foment universal war, chaos, and famine to bring it about.”
So Iran wants to hasten the return of the Mahdi by generating choas through miilions of deaths. Ayatollah Ali Khamenei is in spiritual contact with the Mahdi who directs him to continue their nuclear program at all cost. The nuclear program will specifically hasten the return of the Mahdi, says the spiritual Mahdi.
By continuing their nuclear program at all cost, Iran will almost certainly invite attack from Israel. At that point Iranian proxies – Syria, Hezbollah and Hamas – will be called up for action. The resulting massive attack on Israel will be aimed at the complete and total destruction of Israel. That means nobody is playing around. Syria’s full chemical arsenal will be used immediately from time zero – the start of the war. Not to mention hundreds of other missiles coming in from all directions. That is day one of the war.
Day two sees us monitoring nuclear fallout from what is left of Israel’s neighbors. All of Israel’s neighbors now cease to exist. This war will be henceforth known as The One Day War.
A couple of weeks later, Russian and Chinese leaders have a little meeting to discuss events in the Middle East. The west (Israel) attacked Iran for no apparent reason, then ended up obliterating millions of Arabs in the process. It certainly looks like the west crossed the line in the sand as drawn by Moscow. Moscow warned the west that interference in Iran or north Africa will bring on catastrophe far and wide. China has also threatened nuclear war over Iran. Now the west has interfered in both Iran and north Africa, and it has brought on millions of deaths in the process. The west didn’t cross the line. It ran as fast as it could and jumped as far over the line as possible.
At this point we get to see if Russia and China are bluffing about nuclear retaliation. However, any nuclear attack would not be immediate. They need time to prepare. They will most certainly target spring in order to avoid winter. If an attack comes, it will be sudden for no apparent reason. It will catch everybody (not you) off guard. Perhaps it would be prudent for you to plan for the worst and hope for the best.
On this website I am going to try to figure out precisely to the day when such an attack might take place. Not sure if I can do it, but I’m going to try. My Doomsday Calendar gives my best estimate at this time – Monday, May 6, 2013. Mondays in May have the highest probability for attack.
If America, Russia and China are taken out of the world equation, then that leaves Europe in charge. Now Iran only has to focus on Europe in order to facilitate the return of the Mahdi. If Iran can obliterate Europe, then that positions Islamic countries for a leading rolling in world affairs. Now the Mahdi can finally emerge to lead the world, minus a few billion people.
If America is obliterated in 2013 or 2014, then I would estimate that Europe will meet its demise around 2025. The emergence of the Mahdi occurs by 2030. Then we get to meet the Mahdi’s new buddy – Islamic Jesus. Finally, we all get to convert to Islam, take a mark in Arabic script (looks like 666) that says “In the Name of Allah” or die.
I’m getting depressed.
David Morris will be reviewing the 1st episode of the National Geographic “Doomsday Preppers” survival TV show on February 7. David Morris will be posting comments to the SecretsOfUrbanSurvival.com website during the show, then adding a full analysis and review, providing people with actionable survival information.
Austin, TX. (PRWEB) February 07, 2012
Survival and Preparedness goes mainstream on the National Geographic Channel, reveals David Morris a survival expert from Secrets of Urban Survival, by airing a new series on survival and preparedness called “Doomsday Preppers” that includes interviews with survivalists and preparedness minded people. With topics ranging from basic food and water storage, self defense, running cars off of wood instead of gas, gardening, survive in place skills, retreat building, bugging out, and more, David Morris a survival expert explains, “Doomsday Preppers” is a must see for people interested in preparing for survival.
David Morris the survival expert of Secrets of Urban Survival, warns viewers that just watching a survival show does not guarantee the viewer survival skills, just as watching UFC fights does not make the viewer a fighter. Survival tips and skills that are shown on the “Doomsday Preppers” National Geographic TV show David explains, will need to be analyzed to see if they should be part of a survival preparedness plan. David adds, then the skills should be practiced until they are second nature, to become effective in a real survival situation.
The National Geographic channel will be airing the “Doomsday Preppers” 1st episode on February 7th 2012 at 9pm EST, informs David Morris, then continues each Tuesday. David Morris says each show is an hour long and features 3 different people who are preparing for a disaster or an uncertain future. Secrets of Urban Survival expert David Morris, recommends that anyone who is into preparedness should watch the “Doomsday Preppers” show, and may even learn something from it that will increase their own preparedness.
The Secrets of Urban Survival expert David Morris says, the “Doomsday Preppers” National Geographic TV show explores the lives of otherwise ordinary Americans who are preparing for the end of the world as they know it. These people are unique in their beliefs, motivations, and strategies David Morris reveals. Preppers will do what is necessary to make sure they are prepared for any of life’s uncertainties, David adds.
National Geographic has gathered people from many different backgrounds, David from Secrets of Urban Survival explains, who all have their own prepping styles for the “Doomsday Preppers” show. The people that will be on the show David says have their own challenges and plans for the disaster they deem most likely to occur.
David Morris from Secrets of Urban Survival advises people to keep in mind that this National Geographic “Doomsday Preppers” show is television, so some parts may be a bit sensationalized, but should definitely be watched by anyone that knows preparedness is the means to survival. This is why David will be reviewing each show. Starting with the 1st episode of the “Doomsday Preppers,” David will be doing analysis and reviews after each show at SecretsOfUrbanSurvival.com, plus David will be commenting live on the website during the show.
The important thing about survival and preparedness TV shows, the Secrets of Urban Survival expert David Morris explains, is that the skills that they teach are next to useless until the people trying to acquire them take ownership of them, practice them, and make them their own. There are occasional stories about how people survive disasters by doing something that they saw on TV, explains David Morris, but the reason those stories make the news is because they are so rare, and someone who learns skills, practices them, and successfully applies them under stress is normal and not news worthy.
The Secrets of Urban Survival expert David Morris says people can learn a lot from other people’s preparedness efforts, which is one of the great things about a show like the National Geographic “Doomsday Preppers.” Survival expert David Morris developed Secrets of Urban Survival to provide information for people that are actively looking to learn important strategies for preparedness, and find out exactly how to prepare for survival.