Most Australians probably imagine World War I was started when the Austrian Archduke Franz Ferdinand was assassinated in Sarajevo and Germany then invaded Belgium and France.
Sure, those events did occur, but the war broke out in a broader strategic and geopolitical context: the rise of Germany.
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This, you may think, is just history. It is. But hidden within this history are some huge lessons for our modern world.
We, today, are dealing again with a fundamental shift in the geopolitics of the world – the rise of China.
How the established powers, particularly the US, deal with this new major power and how China deals with its region and the rest of the world is fundamental to global stability.
Like pre-World War I Germany, the world is doing pretty well out of the rise of China. China itself is dependent on access to global markets and imports of resources.
In other words, a war involving China would be an economic catastrophe for China.
Downer: History of World War I holds lessons on dealing with China | adelaidenow
Tag Archives: Economic Catastrophe
Downer: History of World War I holds lessons on dealing with China | adelaidenow
Europe’s debt crisis mirrors collapse of 1930s – Winnipeg Free Press
The spectre of the 1930s financial crisis that culminated in the rise of Adolf Hitler’s Nazi party and the Second World War is stalking Europe.
In May 1931, Creditanstalt, founded in Vienna by the Rothschild banking dynasty and the biggest lender in what remained of the Habsburg Empire, suffered a run. Its collapse after a merger with an insolvent rival sparked a crisis that left Germany and central Europe strewn with failed banks, caused defaults in Europe and Latin America, knocked the pound off the gold standard, and forced the New York Federal Reserve by October to raise its discount rate by two percentage points.
“The biggest economic catastrophe of the last century has been, of course, the big crisis after 1929,” Ewald Nowotny, governor of the Austrian central bank, said at a conference this week in Vienna. “I truly can say that when we had the big crisis of 2007 and 2008, it was in the back of the mind of everybody, all of us, every central banker, that we must avoid the mistakes of the 1930s.”
Europe’s debt crisis mirrors collapse of 1930s – Winnipeg Free Press
The mistakes of the 1930s were not really the mistakes of the 1930s. They were the mistakes in the many decades leading up to the 1930s. By the time the 1930s arrived, then it was already too late.
Single motherhood’s rise an economic disaster for women – latimes.com
The demise of two-parent families in the U.S. has been an economic catastrophe for society.
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In its broad outlines, the story is familiar by now. In 1965, 93% of all American births were to women with marriage licenses. Over the next few decades, the percentage of babies with no father around rose steadily. As of 1970, 11% of births were to unmarried mothers; by 1990, that number had risen to 28%. Today, 41% of all births are to unmarried women. And for mothers under 30, the rate is 53%.
Single motherhood’s rise an economic disaster for women – latimes.com
While some groups are excited about giving marriage to .2% of the population – gays and lesbians who want to get married, the other 99.8% of the population is falling apart. I guess that .2% can be happy as they go down on the Titanic.
EuroCrisis: Bank Fraud May Collapse the Euro – International Business Times
The widespread use of deposit guarantees and the use of EU Government Bonds as any form of security will directly lead to a collapse in the value of the Euro.
Devaluation seems the only real exit now for Europe, Germany again will be a huge winner from such a move.
Devaluation either by the ECB, the European Banks or the market is now the only option if the EU is to continue. A drop in the EU to USD rate to 80c would dramatically improve the trade deficit in the trouble countries and offer some hope to their desperate economies.
While the move would pressure the German trade surplus creating an inflation event in the small number of European countries that are still near full employment, it remains a better option than having an economic catastrophe in many of the EU member states.
Around Europe the situation is an Economic mess.
EuroCrisis: Bank Fraud May Collapse the Euro – International Business Times
Peggy Noonan On Steve Jobs And Why Big Companies Die – Forbes
This is off-topic, but I found it interesting so I’m passing it along.
I agree with Jobs’ assessment on why companies fail. I have seen this effect in action at companies I’ve worked at.
“The company does a great job, innovates and becomes a monopoly or close to it in some field, and then the quality of the product becomes less important. The company starts valuing the great salesman, because they’re the ones who can move the needle on revenues.” So salesmen are put in charge, and product engineers and designers feel demoted: Their efforts are no longer at the white-hot center of the company’s daily life. They “turn off.” IBM [IBM] and Xerox [XRX], Jobs said, faltered in precisely this way. The salesmen who led the companies were smart and eloquent, but “they didn’t know anything about the product.” In the end this can doom a great company, because what consumers want is good products.
Peggy Noonan On Steve Jobs And Why Big Companies Die – Forbes
Why We Are In Political Gridlock: The Private Sector Is Dying
The reality is, as I explained in my last article, “Peggy Noonan On Steve Jobs And Why Big Companies Die”, that the salesmen and the accountants have taken over America’s big companies and they are dying. They are no longer able to innovate and create organic growth.
If only one or two big firms had fallen into this mode, we would be dealing with a few rotten apples. When it’s most big firms, we are dealing with almost the whole barrel. When almost all the big companies are dying, we don’t just have a serious management problem. We have an economic catastrophe.
Why We Are In Political Gridlock: The Private Sector Is Dying – Forbes
Tipping Point: World on Verge of Global Economic Catastrophe | Foreign Policy Magazine
It’s probably too late to stop the contagion. Get ready for financial chaos.
The eurozone’s banking crisis is on the verge of becoming a global economic catastrophe. But do the economic heavyweights meeting in Washington this week know what to do about it?
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There are now two distinct but interrelated sets of challenges to address — and that must be addressed — if the world is to avoid another cardiac arrest: a sovereign debt and growth problem, and inadequate bank capital and asset quality. Each needs a focused solution, and neither can be solved unless the other is, too.
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Policymakers face a stark choice. They can either lead an orderly economic response or be forced to clean up after a chaotic, ad hoc, messy one. Europe’s problem is now the world’s; and such a global problem requires a global solution.
Why is this happening?
Small recessions burn out the dead wood (Bad decisions, bad economics, corruption, …). Since governments work hard to suppress recessions, the dead wood never gets cleared out. Now the entire forest gets to burn instead because of so much dead wood build up. And there is no stopping this.
Arab Spring, Russian Fall – OpEd
Predicting Russia’s imminent economic collapse is a favorite hobby of many observers, despite often-tenuous grounds for the argument. For example, when you hear a prediction of a double dip US recession coupled with the European debt crisis that could cause oil prices to plummet, bringing economic catastrophe to Russia, it is easy to dismiss the idea. However it’s altogether more serious when it is the country’s Finance Minister who is saying it.
China’s future will be hobbled by old age | Times Online
The West’s problems are, however, nothing compared to the social and economic catastrophe shaping in China.
The one-child policy has, in its own harsh terms, worked: reducing births by between 300 and 400 million. But it has induced a premature, and alarmingly rapid, ageing process. China has given itself a rich country’s problem before it has become rich: for all its economic performance, Chinese incomes are still nowhere near as high as those in Western societies at the point when they started to age.
China’s future will be hobbled by old age | Rosemary Righter – Times Online
The Death of Macho
Manly men have been running the world forever. But the Great Recession is changing all that, and it will alter the course of history.
The era of male dominance is coming to an end.
Seriously.
For years, the world has been witnessing a quiet but monumental shift of power from men to women. Today, the Great Recession has turned what was an evolutionary shift into a revolutionary one. The consequence will be not only a mortal blow to the macho men’s club called finance capitalism that got the world into the current economic catastrophe; it will be a collective crisis for millions and millions of working men around the globe.
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