Although a war is unlikely to break out anytime soon, the escalation of hostilities between the world’s second and third largest economies is concerning. According to Cambridge’s Centre for Risk Studies, under the worst scenario, conflict would lead to a global recession lasting between 18 months and four years, and tens of trillions of dollars [...]
‘Market analysts and economists at some of Wall Street’s biggest, most-influential banks also seem to be coming around to the view that the US and other developed countries may be losing their ability to grow quickly.’
Here’s the argument, in a nutshell: For some reason—perhaps related to demographic changes tied to the baby boom generation—the [...]
Some financial accidents, e.g., trust products defaulting, may occur in the coming months. Their impact on the real economy will be limited. As the land bubble deflates, the resulting reductions in production costs and consumer prices should support the real economy by boosting exports and consumption.
When a few financial incidents occur simultaneously, the [...]
The US economy has been expanding wildly for two centuries. Are we witnessing the end of growth? Economist Robert Gordon lays out 4 reasons US growth may be slowing, detailing factors like epidemic debt and growing inequality, which could move the US into a period of stasis we can’t innovate our way [...]
If our leaders could have recognized the signs ahead of time, do you think that they could have prevented the financial crisis of 2008? That is a very timely question, because so many of the warning signs that we saw just before and during the last financial crisis are popping up again. Many of the [...]
Yet the signs are now unmistakable: China is in big trouble. We’re not talking about some minor setback along the way, but something more fundamental. The country’s whole way of doing business, the economic system that has driven three decades of incredible growth, has reached its limits. You could say that the Chinese model is [...]
The wheels have come off the endless growth via expanding debt machine.
Progressives and conservatives have long shared a single agenda: growth. Growth increases prosperity and wealth, and this makes for contented voters who will keep voting for incumbents.
This agenda makes three implicit assumptions:
1. Inflation is OK as long as the economy [...]
Coming to terms with the Asian century means coming to terms with the biggest change in the global distribution of wealth and power since the Industrial Revolution. This change is driving nothing less than a revolution in the Asian regional order.
For the West, it means having much less power over how that order is [...]
China is pushing ahead with a sweeping plan to move 250 million rural residents into newly constructed towns and cities over the next dozen years — a transformative event that could set off a new wave of growth or saddle the country with problems for generations to come.
The government, often by fiat, is replacing [...]
An expert on China and its government warns that the communist nation has been aggressively claiming territory in the South China Sea. The United States, meanwhile, has responded weakly.
Gordon Chang, an attorney and author, says China has been claiming disputed islands in the area for over a year, which would shut the waters to [...]